Rider Broncs at Merrimack Warriors: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Dec 4, 7:00 PM ETHammel Court · at Merrimack · Conference game

#347RIDRider66final

Final

#225MRMKMerrimack68▲ winner

Closing lineMRMK -9.5✓ RID covered by 7.5

Closing total138.5Under by 4.5

Season records: Rider and Merrimack
RID	This season	MRMK
0-5	Record	3-6
0-5	ATS	4-5
2-3	O/U	4-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: RID 65–75 MRMK · ✓ MRMK (79%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
RID	33	33	66
MRMK	37	31	68

1st half: RID 33, MRMK 37 (MRMK by 4). The model had MRMK by 5.5 and a total of 65.7 (actual 70).

Team stats

RID		MRMK
26-54 48%	Field goals	25-54 46%
4-12 33%	3-pointers	11-29 38%
10-16 63%	Free throws	7-11 64%
41 13 off	Rebounds	19 5 off
9	Assists	13
4	Steals	8
3	Blocks	7
15	Turnovers	8
14	Fouls	8
34	Points in paint	24
2	Fast-break points	11

Players

RID	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Flash Burton G	36	11	3	3	5-12	1-6
Caleb Smith G	33	9	10	2	3-6	0-0
Shemani Fuller F	26	7	12	1	3-6	0-0
Cole McCabe F	25	12	4	0	4-10	0-2
Zion Cruz G	22	9	5	1	4-9	1-2
Bench
Kristupas Kepežinskas G	19	5	1	0	1-2	1-1
Mohamad Diallo F	14	8	2	1	4-4	0-0
Antwan Wilson G	12	5	1	0	2-3	1-1
AB Coulibaly G	6	0	1	0	0-2	0-0
Devean Williams G	4	0	0	1	0-0	0-0
Jamir McNeil G	3	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Maurizio D'Alessandro, Davis Bynum, Xaviel Rodriguez, Daniel Helterhoff

MRMK	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Kevair Kennedy G	40	19	3	3	6-15	1-2
Ernest Shelton G	38	6	2	0	2-9	2-9
Todd Brogna F	35	5	3	7	2-5	1-3
Tye Dorset G	34	15	4	1	6-9	3-6
Andrés Marrero G	29	23	3	0	9-14	4-9
Bench
KC Ugwuakazi F	13	0	1	2	0-2	0-0
Dylan Veillette F	7	0	1	0	0-0	0-0
Jaylen Stinson G	4	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Brendan Johnson, Brandon Legris, Aliou Cisse, Jacob Moore, Quinn Kwasniak, David Munro, Malik Edmead

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	MRMK -9.5	MRMK -9.3	RID +0.2	W RID covered
Total	138.5	140.1	Over 1.6	L Under
Projected score	—	RID 65.4 · MRMK 74.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	MRMK -5.5	MRMK -4.0
1H total	65.7	70
1H projected score	RID 30.1 · MRMK 35.6	RID 33 · MRMK 37

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
RID LLLLL	0-5	0%	0-4	0-4
MRMK WWLLW	4-5	44%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: RID away, as underdog; MRMK home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
RID UUOOU	2-3	40%	0-5
MRMK OUUOU	4-5	44%	3-6

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
RIDlast 5	0-5 0%	0-5 0%	2-3 40%
MRMKlast 9	3-6 33%	4-5 44%	4-5 44%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

RID 1–1 MRMKSeries tied · 2 games since 2021-22 · RID 2-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 28, 2024-25	RID 83 @ MRMK 78	MRMK -9.5	RID W
Feb 2, 2024-25	MRMK 66 @ RID 64	RID +3.5	RID W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Rider

5 games played

Straight up

0-5

0% wins

Against the spread

0-5

0% covers · avg −7.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-3

40% overs · avg +0.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-50%

L L L L L

5 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

0-50%

L L L L L

5 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-340%

U U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@UVA	L 53-87	+26.5	L −7.5	148.5	U 140
Nov 5	@RUTG	L 53-81	+18.5	L −9.5	139.5	U 134
Nov 18	@TEX	L 65-99	+30.5	L −3.5	143.5	O 164
Nov 20	@HOU	L 45-91	+40.5	L −5.5	134.5	O 136
Nov 25	vsCOPP	L 65-68	-8.5	L −11.5	139.5	U 133

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UVA

L 53-87

−7.5

RUTG

L 53-81

−9.5

TEX

L 65-99

−3.5

HOU

L 45-91

−5.5

COPP

L 65-68

−11.5

covered 0didn’t cover 5avg −7.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UVA

L 53-87

−8.5

RUTG

L 53-81

−5.5

TEX

L 65-99

+20.5

HOU

L 45-91

+1.5

COPP

L 65-68

−6.5

over 2under 3avg +0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Merrimack

9 games played

Straight up

3-6

33% wins

Against the spread

4-5

44% covers · avg −2.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-5

44% overs · avg −1.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-633%

L L L W W L L L W

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

4-544%

L L L W W W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-544%

U O U O O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsSDST	L 66-75	+6.5	L −2.5	143.5	U 141
Nov 6	@AUB	L 57-95	+23.5	L −14.5	148.5	O 152
Nov 11	@TAR	L 62-76	+4.5	L −9.5	142.5	U 138
Nov 15	@BU	W 91-79	+2.5	W +14.5	135.5	O 170
Nov 19	vsME	W 72-65	-6.5	W +0.5	130.5	O 137
Nov 21	@FLA	L 45-80	+36.5	W +1.5	158.5	U 125
Nov 28	@PENN	L 65-77	+2.5	L −9.5	152.5	U 142
Nov 29	vsHOF	L 58-78	+5.5	L −14.5	135.5	O 136
Nov 30	vsLAS	W 66-60	+2.5	W +8.5	132.5	U 126

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SDST

L 66-75

−2.5

AUB

L 57-95

−14.5

TAR

L 62-76

−9.5

W 91-79

+14.5

W 72-65

+0.5

FLA

L 45-80

+1.5

PENN

L 65-77

−9.5

HOF

L 58-78

−14.5

LAS

W 66-60

+8.5

covered 4didn’t cover 5avg −2.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SDST

L 66-75

−2.5

AUB

L 57-95

+3.5

TAR

L 62-76

−4.5

W 91-79

+34.5

W 72-65

+6.5

FLA

L 45-80

−33.5

PENN

L 65-77

−10.5

HOF

L 58-78

+0.5

LAS

W 66-60

−6.5

over 4under 5avg −1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Rider Broncs at Merrimack Warriors

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Rider

Merrimack

Rider

Merrimack