Merrimack Warriors at Pennsylvania Quakers: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 28, 4:30 PM ETThe Palestra · at Penn

#225MRMKMerrimack65final

Final

#137PENNPenn77▲ winner

Closing linePENN -2.5✓ PENN covered by 9.5

Closing total152.5Under by 10.5

Season records: Merrimack and Penn
MRMK	This season	PENN
2-4	Record	2-2
3-3	ATS	2-2
3-3	O/U	2-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: MRMK 72–77 PENN · ✓ PENN (65%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
MRMK	30	35	65
PENN	35	42	77

1st half: MRMK 30, PENN 35 (PENN by 5). The model had PENN by 2.5 and a total of 69.7 (actual 65).

Team stats

MRMK		PENN
25-67 37%	Field goals	31-58 53%
4-28 14%	3-pointers	3-12 25%
11-15 73%	Free throws	12-23 52%
32 10 off	Rebounds	46 13 off
12	Assists	18
7	Steals	3
4	Blocks	5
5	Turnovers	11
19	Fouls	13
40	Points in paint	50
16	Fast-break points	5

Players

MRMK	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Tye Dorset G	35	8	3	1	2-12	0-7
Ernest Shelton G	35	12	0	1	4-13	2-9
Kevair Kennedy G	35	18	4	3	8-13	0-0
Andrés Marrero G	27	14	2	2	6-14	2-7
Todd Brogna F	22	0	4	2	0-5	0-5
Bench
KC Ugwuakazi F	17	6	9	0	2-6	0-0
Jaylen Stinson G	13	3	3	3	1-1	0-0
Aliou Cisse F	9	2	1	0	1-1	0-0
Dylan Veillette F	7	2	0	0	1-2	0-0

Did not play: Quinn Kwasniak, David Munro, Jacob Moore, Brendan Johnson, Brandon Legris, Malik Edmead

PENN	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
TJ Power F	37	14	12	6	6-12	0-1
Ethan Roberts G	36	11	4	4	4-11	1-3
Augustus Gerhart F	17	8	4	1	3-3	0-0
Michael Zanoni G	16	5	1	0	1-4	0-3
AJ Levine G	11	0	0	1	0-1	0-0
Bench
Dalton Scantlebury F	23	22	13	2	10-10	0-0
Lucas Lueth F	22	9	4	0	4-9	1-2
Cam Thrower G	18	3	1	1	1-2	1-2
Dylan Williams G	17	5	3	3	2-6	0-1
Niklas Polonowski G	3	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Bradyn Foster, Jay Jones, Ryan Altman, Payton Kamin, William Kruse, Michelangelo Oberti, Alex Massung, Johnnie Walter, Chris Ubochi

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	PENN -2.5	PENN -4.3	PENN +1.8	W PENN covered
Total	152.5	148.8	Under 3.7	W Under
Projected score	—	MRMK 72.2 · PENN 76.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	PENN -2.5	PENN -5.0
1H total	69.7	65
1H projected score	MRMK 33.6 · PENN 36.1	MRMK 30 · PENN 35

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MRMK LLWWW	3-3	50%	2-2	2-3
PENN LLWW	2-2	50%	1-0	0-1

Venue/role: MRMK away, as underdog; PENN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
MRMK OUOOU	3-3	50%	2-4
PENN OOUU	2-2	50%	2-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MRMKlast 6	2-4 33%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%
PENNlast 4	2-2 50%	2-2 50%	2-2 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Merrimack

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −1.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg +0.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-350%

L L L W W W

3 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

U O U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsSDST	L 66-75	+6.5	L −2.5	143.5	U 141
Nov 6	@AUB	L 57-95	+23.5	L −14.5	148.5	O 152
Nov 11	@TAR	L 62-76	+4.5	L −9.5	142.5	U 138
Nov 15	@BU	W 91-79	+2.5	W +14.5	135.5	O 170
Nov 19	vsME	W 72-65	-6.5	W +0.5	130.5	O 137
Nov 21	@FLA	L 45-80	+36.5	W +1.5	158.5	U 125

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SDST

L 66-75

−2.5

AUB

L 57-95

−14.5

TAR

L 62-76

−9.5

W 91-79

+14.5

W 72-65

+0.5

FLA

L 45-80

+1.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −1.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SDST

L 66-75

−2.5

AUB

L 57-95

+3.5

TAR

L 62-76

−4.5

W 91-79

+34.5

W 72-65

+6.5

FLA

L 45-80

−33.5

over 3under 3avg +0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Penn

4 games played

Straight up

2-2

50% wins

Against the spread

2-2

50% covers · avg +5.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-2

50% overs · avg +3.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-250%

L L W W

2 straight wins2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-250%

L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-250%

O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 9	@AMER	L 78-84	-1.5	L −7.5	154.5	O 162
Nov 11	@PROV	L 81-106	+19.5	L −5.5	172.5	O 187
Nov 17	vsJOES	W 83-74	+5.5	W +14.5	163.5	U 157
Nov 21	@DREX	W 84-68	+4.5	W +20.5	152.5	U 152

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

AMER

L 78-84

−7.5

PROV

L 81-106

−5.5

JOES

W 83-74

+14.5

DREX

W 84-68

+20.5

covered 2didn’t cover 2avg +5.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

AMER

L 78-84

+7.5

PROV

L 81-106

+14.5

JOES

W 83-74

−6.5

DREX

W 84-68

−0.5

over 2under 2avg +3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Merrimack Warriors at Pennsylvania Quakers

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Merrimack

Penn

Merrimack

Penn