Merrimack Warriors vs Hofstra Pride: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 29, 2:00 PM ETThe Palestra · Neutral site

#225MRMKMerrimack58final

Final

#166HOFHofstra78▲ winner

Closing lineHOF -5.5✓ HOF covered by 14.5

Closing total135.5Over by 0.5

Season records: Merrimack and Hofstra
MRMK	This season	HOF
2-5	Record	2-3
3-4	ATS	4-1
3-4	O/U	4-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: MRMK 67–72 HOF · ✓ HOF (68%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
MRMK	30	28	58
HOF	43	35	78

1st half: MRMK 30, HOF 43 (HOF by 13). The model had HOF by 3.0 and a total of 64.9 (actual 73).

Team stats

MRMK		HOF
18-59 31%	Field goals	26-56 46%
10-33 30%	3-pointers	9-21 43%
12-14 86%	Free throws	17-20 85%
28 9 off	Rebounds	43 11 off
13	Assists	18
9	Steals	4
7	Blocks	4
9	Turnovers	14
16	Fouls	13
16	Points in paint	34
14	Fast-break points	0

Players

MRMK	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Ernest Shelton G	32	12	4	0	4-11	2-7
Tye Dorset G	30	12	4	4	4-9	4-7
Kevair Kennedy G	23	10	1	1	3-9	0-1
Andrés Marrero G	21	6	1	0	2-6	2-4
Todd Brogna F	21	8	3	2	2-7	2-6
Bench
KC Ugwuakazi F	26	5	3	2	1-3	0-1
Malik Edmead G	14	0	1	2	0-1	0-0
Jaylen Stinson G	13	0	0	1	0-1	0-0
Dylan Veillette F	8	2	1	0	1-4	0-2
Aliou Cisse F	6	0	2	1	0-3	0-2
Brendan Johnson G	6	3	0	0	1-5	0-3

Did not play: Brandon Legris, Jacob Moore, Quinn Kwasniak, David Munro

HOF	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
German Plotnikov G	37	7	2	4	3-5	1-3
Cruz Davis G	37	15	4	8	5-14	3-4
Preston Edmead G	32	22	2	5	5-12	5-11
Biggie Patterson G	19	4	8	0	1-6	0-1
Victory Onuetu F	15	6	6	0	3-4	0-0
Bench
Joshua DeCady F	20	7	3	1	2-3	0-0
Silas Sunday F	20	15	7	0	7-8	0-0
A.J. Wills G	9	0	1	0	0-3	0-1
Alex Tsynkevich C	5	2	3	0	0-0	0-0
Jaeden Roberts G	2	0	0	0	0-1	0-1
Amir Williams G	2	0	1	0	0-0	0-0
Joshua Aaron Reaves G	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Trey Boyd III, Brandon Morgan, Carlos Lopez

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	HOF -5.5	HOF -5.2	MRMK +0.3	L HOF covered
Total	135.5	138.4	Over 2.9	W Over
Projected score	—	MRMK 66.6 · HOF 71.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	HOF -3.0	HOF -13.0
1H total	64.9	73
1H projected score	MRMK 30.9 · HOF 33.9	MRMK 30 · HOF 43

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
MRMK LWWWL	3-4	43%	0-1	2-4
HOF WLWWW	4-1	80%	1-0	2-1

Venue/role: MRMK neutral site, as underdog; HOF neutral site, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
MRMK UOOUU	3-4	43%	2-5
HOF OOOOU	4-1	80%	2-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MRMKlast 7	2-5 29%	3-4 43%	3-4 43%
HOFlast 5	2-3 40%	4-1 80%	4-1 80%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Merrimack

7 games played

Straight up

2-5

29% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg −2.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-4

43% overs · avg −0.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-529%

L L L W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-443%

L L L W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-443%

U O U O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsSDST	L 66-75	+6.5	L −2.5	143.5	U 141
Nov 6	@AUB	L 57-95	+23.5	L −14.5	148.5	O 152
Nov 11	@TAR	L 62-76	+4.5	L −9.5	142.5	U 138
Nov 15	@BU	W 91-79	+2.5	W +14.5	135.5	O 170
Nov 19	vsME	W 72-65	-6.5	W +0.5	130.5	O 137
Nov 21	@FLA	L 45-80	+36.5	W +1.5	158.5	U 125
Nov 28	@PENN	L 65-77	+2.5	L −9.5	152.5	U 142

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SDST

L 66-75

−2.5

AUB

L 57-95

−14.5

TAR

L 62-76

−9.5

W 91-79

+14.5

W 72-65

+0.5

FLA

L 45-80

+1.5

PENN

L 65-77

−9.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg −2.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SDST

L 66-75

−2.5

AUB

L 57-95

+3.5

TAR

L 62-76

−4.5

W 91-79

+34.5

W 72-65

+6.5

FLA

L 45-80

−33.5

PENN

L 65-77

−10.5

over 3under 4avg −0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Hofstra

5 games played

Straight up

2-3

40% wins

Against the spread

4-1

80% covers · avg −0.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-1

80% overs · avg +8.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-340%

L L W L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

4-180%

W L W W W

3 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-180%

O O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@UCF	L 78-82	+8.5	W +4.5	140.5	O 160
Nov 7	@IONA	L 73-81	-1.5	L −9.5	144.5	O 154
Nov 14	@BUCK	W 83-77	-4.5	W +1.5	139.5	O 160
Nov 19	@TEM	L 76-81	+5.5	W +0.5	145.5	O 157
Nov 28	vsLAS	W 63-58	-3.5	W +1.5	138.5	U 121

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UCF

L 78-82

+4.5

IONA

L 73-81

−9.5

BUCK

W 83-77

+1.5

TEM

L 76-81

+0.5

LAS

W 63-58

+1.5

covered 4didn’t cover 1avg −0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UCF

L 78-82

+19.5

IONA

L 73-81

+9.5

BUCK

W 83-77

+20.5

TEM

L 76-81

+11.5

LAS

W 63-58

−17.5

over 4under 1avg +8.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Merrimack Warriors vs Hofstra Pride

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Merrimack

Hofstra

Merrimack

Hofstra