Hofstra Pride vs La Salle Explorers: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 28, 2:00 PM ETThe Palestra · Neutral site

#166HOFHofstra63▲ winner

Final

#124LASLa Salle58final

Closing lineHOF -3.5✓ HOF covered by 1.5

Closing total138.5Under by 17.5

Season records: Hofstra and La Salle
HOF	This season	LAS
1-3	Record	2-3
3-1	ATS	2-3
4-0	O/U	3-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: HOF 72–70 LAS · ✓ HOF (56%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
HOF	34	29	63
LAS	30	28	58

1st half: HOF 34, LAS 30 (HOF by 4). The model had HOF by 1.2 and a total of 66.7 (actual 64).

Team stats

HOF		LAS
24-59 41%	Field goals	23-58 40%
9-26 35%	3-pointers	3-15 20%
6-11 55%	Free throws	9-12 75%
33 10 off	Rebounds	38 12 off
13	Assists	14
5	Steals	6
5	Blocks	5
13	Turnovers	14
14	Fouls	15
16	Points in paint	34
9	Fast-break points	8

Players

HOF	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Cruz Davis G	40	22	3	5	9-18	3-7
Preston Edmead G	37	11	0	5	3-9	3-7
German Plotnikov G	34	12	4	0	5-13	2-7
Biggie Patterson G	30	13	5	1	5-12	1-4
Victory Onuetu F	16	2	5	1	1-2	0-0
Bench
Silas Sunday F	20	1	6	0	0-2	0-0
Joshua DeCady F	17	2	4	0	1-2	0-0
Alex Tsynkevich C	3	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
A.J. Wills G	3	0	1	1	0-1	0-1

Did not play: Jaeden Roberts, Joshua Aaron Reaves, Trey Boyd III, Brandon Morgan, Amir Williams, Carlos Lopez

LAS	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Eric Acker G	34	9	2	6	4-8	0-1
Jaeden Marshall G	28	8	3	0	2-8	0-6
Ashton Walker G	27	7	3	2	3-6	1-2
Justin Archer F	18	7	6	0	2-2	0-0
Noah Collier F	10	4	3	1	2-4	0-0
Bench
Jerome Brewer Jr. F	22	13	6	0	6-13	1-3
Rob Dockery G	22	5	3	2	2-3	1-1
Edwin Daniel F	16	5	4	2	2-6	0-0
Josiah Harris F	14	0	5	1	0-5	0-0
Damon Strand G	9	0	1	0	0-3	0-2

Did not play: Josue Grullon, Arlan Masharaliyev, Max Lipacis, Nas Hart, Truth Harris, Jaden Johnson, Bowyn Beatty

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	HOF -3.5	HOF -1.7	LAS +1.8	L HOF covered
Total	138.5	142.2	Over 3.7	L Under
Projected score	—	HOF 72 · LAS 70.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	HOF -1.2	HOF -4.0
1H total	66.7	64
1H projected score	HOF 33.9 · LAS 32.7	HOF 34 · LAS 30

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
HOF WLWW	3-1	75%	—	1-1
LAS WWLLL	2-3	40%	0-1	0-3

Venue/role: HOF neutral site, as favorite; LAS neutral site, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
HOF OOOO	4-0	100%	1-3
LAS OUOOU	3-2	60%	2-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
HOFlast 4	1-3 25%	3-1 75%	4-0 100%
LASlast 5	2-3 40%	2-3 40%	3-2 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Hofstra

4 games played

Straight up

1-3

25% wins

Against the spread

3-1

75% covers · avg −0.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-0

100% overs · avg +15.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-325%

L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-175%

W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-0100%

O O O O

4 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@UCF	L 78-82	+8.5	W +4.5	140.5	O 160
Nov 7	@IONA	L 73-81	-1.5	L −9.5	144.5	O 154
Nov 14	@BUCK	W 83-77	-4.5	W +1.5	139.5	O 160
Nov 19	@TEM	L 76-81	+5.5	W +0.5	145.5	O 157

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UCF

L 78-82

+4.5

IONA

L 73-81

−9.5

BUCK

W 83-77

+1.5

TEM

L 76-81

+0.5

covered 3didn’t cover 1avg −0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UCF

L 78-82

+19.5

IONA

L 73-81

+9.5

BUCK

W 83-77

+20.5

TEM

L 76-81

+11.5

over 4under 0avg +15.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

La Salle

5 games played

Straight up

2-3

40% wins

Against the spread

2-3

40% covers · avg −1.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-2

60% overs · avg −2.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-340%

W W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-340%

W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-260%

O U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 5	vsCOPP	W 87-59	-17.5	W +10.5	139.5	O 146
Nov 8	vsMONM	W 73-60	-4.5	W +8.5	143.5	U 133
Nov 11	@TEM	L 63-90	+6.5	L −20.5	148.5	O 153
Nov 15	vsPSU	L 69-83	+8.5	L −5.5	145.5	O 152
Nov 19	vsVILL	L 55-70	+12.5	L −2.5	144.5	U 125

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

COPP

W 87-59

+10.5

MONM

W 73-60

+8.5

TEM

L 63-90

−20.5

PSU

L 69-83

−5.5

VILL

L 55-70

−2.5

covered 2didn’t cover 3avg −1.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

COPP

W 87-59

+6.5

MONM

W 73-60

−10.5

TEM

L 63-90

+4.5

PSU

L 69-83

+6.5

VILL

L 55-70

−19.5

over 3under 2avg −2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Hofstra Pride vs La Salle Explorers

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Hofstra

La Salle

Hofstra

La Salle