Wright State Raiders at Butler Bulldogs: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 28, 2:00 PM ETHinkle Fieldhouse · at Butler

#180WRSTWright St69final

Final

#72BTLRButler94▲ winner

Closing lineBTLR -14.5✓ BTLR covered by 10.5

Closing total150.5Over by 12.5

Season records: Wright St and Butler
WRST	This season	BTLR
2-3	Record	5-1
4-1	ATS	6-0
0-5	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: WRST 69–85 BTLR · ✓ BTLR (92%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
WRST	32	37	69
BTLR	29	65	94

1st half: WRST 32, BTLR 29 (WRST by 3). The model had BTLR by 9.6 and a total of 72.2 (actual 61).

Team stats

WRST		BTLR
30-71 42%	Field goals	36-63 57%
7-22 32%	3-pointers	7-21 33%
2-3 67%	Free throws	15-26 58%
30 10 off	Rebounds	41 11 off
11	Assists	17
5	Steals	7
5	Blocks	1
13	Turnovers	11
24	Fouls	9
42	Points in paint	50
11	Fast-break points	21

Players

WRST	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Solomon Callaghan G	33	17	0	0	6-16	5-10
Michael Imariagbe F	25	6	13	0	3-9	0-1
Michael Cooper G	22	12	0	3	5-10	1-5
Dominic Pangonis G	22	5	2	0	2-4	1-2
Bryan Etumnu F	12	0	3	0	0-4	0-2
Bench
TJ Burch G	29	13	2	5	6-15	0-0
Andrea Holden G	21	8	4	0	4-5	0-0
Logan Woods G	17	6	2	3	3-6	0-2
Sam Alamutu G	14	2	1	0	1-2	0-0
Kellen Pickett F	5	0	1	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Alex Bruskotter, Ayden Davis, PJ Douglas, Isaiah Williams

BTLR	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Finley Bizjack G	33	20	3	0	7-16	4-9
Michael Ajayi F	33	20	8	4	8-15	1-4
Jamie Kaiser Jr. F	31	11	7	3	4-6	1-2
Azavier Robinson G	24	9	3	4	3-6	0-1
Drayton Jones C	16	8	7	2	4-4	0-0
Bench
Yohan Traore F	21	16	2	2	6-6	0-0
Evan Haywood G	19	7	2	1	3-5	1-2
Yame Butler G	11	3	1	1	1-3	0-2
Jack McCaffery F	8	0	1	0	0-0	0-0
Jackson Keith F	4	0	1	0	0-2	0-1

Did not play: Ethan McComb, Jalen Jackson, Efeosa Oliogu-Elabor, Bryson Cardinal, Kevin Ndzie

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	BTLR -14.5	BTLR -16.1	BTLR +1.6	W BTLR covered
Total	150.5	154.2	Over 3.7	W Over
Projected score	—	WRST 69 · BTLR 85.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	BTLR -9.6	WRST -3.0
1H total	72.2	61
1H projected score	WRST 31.3 · BTLR 40.9	WRST 32 · BTLR 29

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WRST WLWWW	4-1	80%	2-0	3-0
BTLR WWWWW	6-0	100%	3-0	4-0

Venue/role: WRST away, as underdog; BTLR home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
WRST UUUUU	0-5	0%	2-3
BTLR UOOOU	3-3	50%	5-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WRSTlast 5	2-3 40%	4-1 80%	0-5 0%
BTLRlast 6	5-1 83%	6-0 100%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Wright St

5 games played

Straight up

2-3

40% wins

Against the spread

4-1

80% covers · avg +7.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

0-5

0% overs · avg −6.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-340%

L L W L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

4-180%

W L W W W

3 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

0-50%

U U U U U

5 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 6	@CAL	L 67-77	+14.5	W +4.5	148.5	U 144
Nov 11	vsTOL	L 71-81	-5.5	L −15.5	159.5	U 152
Nov 15	vsRAD	W 92-59	+6.5	W +39.5	156.5	U 151
Nov 16	vsKENT	L 72-76	+4.5	W +0.5	157.5	U 148
Nov 25	@STET	W 79-62	-9.5	W +7.5	147.5	U 141

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CAL

L 67-77

+4.5

TOL

L 71-81

−15.5

RAD

W 92-59

+39.5

KENT

L 72-76

+0.5

STET

W 79-62

+7.5

covered 4didn’t cover 1avg +7.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CAL

L 67-77

−4.5

TOL

L 71-81

−7.5

RAD

W 92-59

−5.5

KENT

L 72-76

−9.5

STET

W 79-62

−6.5

over 0under 5avg −6.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Butler

6 games played

Straight up

5-1

83% wins

Against the spread

6-0

100% covers · avg +7.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg +0.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-183%

W W W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

6-0100%

W W W W W W

6 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

U U O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 5	vsUSI	W 88-58	-22.5	W +7.5	156.5	U 146
Nov 8	vsIUIN	W 112-80	-20.5	W +11.5	192.5	U 192
Nov 11	vsCHST	W 98-66	-26.5	W +5.5	158.5	O 164
Nov 15	@SMU	L 85-87	+7.5	W +5.5	163.5	O 172
Nov 21	vsSC	W 79-72	-3.5	W +3.5	150.5	O 151
Nov 23	vsUVA	W 80-73	+6.5	W +13.5	155.5	U 153

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

USI

W 88-58

+7.5

IUIN

W 112-80

+11.5

CHST

W 98-66

+5.5

SMU

L 85-87

+5.5

W 79-72

+3.5

UVA

W 80-73

+13.5

covered 6didn’t cover 0avg +7.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

USI

W 88-58

−10.5

IUIN

W 112-80

−0.5

CHST

W 98-66

+5.5

SMU

L 85-87

+8.5

W 79-72

+0.5

UVA

W 80-73

−2.5

over 3under 3avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Wright State Raiders at Butler Bulldogs

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Wright St

Butler

Wright St

Butler