Butler Bulldogs vs Virginia Cavaliers: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Nov 23, 2:00 PM ETColonial Hall · Neutral site

#72BTLRButler80▲ winner

Final

#20UVAVirginia73final

Closing lineUVA -6.5✓ BTLR covered by 13.5

Closing total155.5Under by 2.5

Season records: Butler and Virginia
BTLR	This season	UVA
4-1	Record	5-0
5-0	ATS	4-1
3-2	O/U	2-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: BTLR 78–80 UVA · ✗ UVA (56%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
BTLR	44	36	80
UVA	42	31	73

1st half: BTLR 44, UVA 42 (BTLR by 2). The model had UVA by 0.9 and a total of 73.9 (actual 86).

Team stats

BTLR		UVA
27-56 48%	Field goals	29-71 41%
6-15 40%	3-pointers	8-27 30%
20-29 69%	Free throws	7-15 47%
43 14 off	Rebounds	39 18 off
11	Assists	6
7	Steals	6
3	Blocks	11
13	Turnovers	9
19	Fouls	21
36	Points in paint	42
16	Fast-break points	16

Players

BTLR	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Michael Ajayi F	37	17	14	1	7-14	0-1
Finley Bizjack G	34	25	1	2	9-18	2-10
Jamie Kaiser Jr. F	32	5	10	0	1-3	0-0
Drayton Jones C	27	6	9	1	3-4	0-0
Jalen Jackson G	21	10	1	4	2-5	0-0
Bench
Yame Butler G	14	5	1	0	1-2	0-0
Azavier Robinson G	12	3	1	1	1-2	1-1
Yohan Traore F	10	0	2	2	0-3	0-0
Evan Haywood G	8	9	0	0	3-4	3-3
Jack McCaffery F	3	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Jackson Keith F	2	0	1	0	0-1	0-0

Did not play: Ethan McComb, Efeosa Oliogu-Elabor, Bryson Cardinal, Kevin Ndzie

UVA	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Thijs De Ridder F	31	10	5	0	4-10	1-3
Malik Thomas G	28	24	3	0	9-17	3-7
Sam Lewis G	25	6	2	1	3-8	0-3
Johann Grunloh C	17	2	7	0	1-4	0-1
Dallin Hall G	11	0	2	0	0-3	0-1
Bench
Chance Mallory G	34	11	6	3	4-13	0-3
Ugonna Onyenso C	23	2	7	1	1-6	0-2
Jacari White G	19	14	0	0	5-7	4-6
Devin Tillis F	10	4	1	1	2-2	0-0
Elijah Gertrude G	2	0	0	0	0-1	0-1

Did not play: Silas Barksdale, Desmond Roberts, Carter Lang, Martin Carrere, Owen Odom

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	UVA -6.5	UVA -1.8	BTLR +4.7	W BTLR covered
Total	155.5	157.9	Over 2.4	L Under
Projected score	—	BTLR 78 · UVA 79.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UVA -0.9	BTLR -2.0
1H total	73.9	86
1H projected score	BTLR 36.5 · UVA 37.4	BTLR 44 · UVA 42

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
BTLR WWWWW	5-0	100%	1-0	1-0
UVA WLWWW	4-1	80%	1-0	4-1

Venue/role: BTLR neutral site, as underdog; UVA neutral site, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
BTLR UUOOO	3-2	60%	4-1
UVA UUUOO	2-3	40%	5-0

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BTLRlast 5	4-1 80%	5-0 100%	3-2 60%
UVAlast 5	5-0 100%	4-1 80%	2-3 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Butler

5 games played

Straight up

4-1

80% wins

Against the spread

5-0

100% covers · avg +6.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-2

60% overs · avg +0.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-180%

W W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

5-0100%

W W W W W

5 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-260%

U U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 5	vsUSI	W 88-58	-22.5	W +7.5	156.5	U 146
Nov 8	vsIUIN	W 112-80	-20.5	W +11.5	192.5	U 192
Nov 11	vsCHST	W 98-66	-26.5	W +5.5	158.5	O 164
Nov 15	@SMU	L 85-87	+7.5	W +5.5	163.5	O 172
Nov 21	vsSC	W 79-72	-3.5	W +3.5	150.5	O 151

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

USI

W 88-58

+7.5

IUIN

W 112-80

+11.5

CHST

W 98-66

+5.5

SMU

L 85-87

+5.5

W 79-72

+3.5

covered 5didn’t cover 0avg +6.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

USI

W 88-58

−10.5

IUIN

W 112-80

−0.5

CHST

W 98-66

+5.5

SMU

L 85-87

+8.5

W 79-72

+0.5

over 3under 2avg +0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Virginia

5 games played

Straight up

5-0

100% wins

Against the spread

4-1

80% covers · avg +2.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-3

40% overs · avg +3.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-0100%

W W W W W

5 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-180%

W L W W W

3 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-340%

U U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsRID	W 87-53	-26.5	W +7.5	148.5	U 140
Nov 7	vsNCCU	W 81-62	-34.5	L −15.5	151.5	U 143
Nov 11	vsHAMP	W 91-53	-24.5	W +13.5	148.5	U 144
Nov 15	vsMRSH	W 104-78	-20.5	W +5.5	155.5	O 182
Nov 21	vsNU	W 83-78	-4.5	W +0.5	149.5	O 161

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

RID

W 87-53

+7.5

NCCU

W 81-62

−15.5

HAMP

W 91-53

+13.5

MRSH

W 104-78

+5.5

W 83-78

+0.5

covered 4didn’t cover 1avg +2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

RID

W 87-53

−8.5

NCCU

W 81-62

−8.5

HAMP

W 91-53

−4.5

MRSH

W 104-78

+26.5

W 83-78

+11.5

over 2under 3avg +3.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Butler Bulldogs vs Virginia Cavaliers

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Butler

Virginia

Butler

Virginia