Monmouth Hawks vs Ball State Cardinals: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 28, 2:00 PM ETKirby Sports Center · Neutral site

#155MONMMonmouth80▲ winner

Final

#181BALLBall State73final

Closing lineMONM -2.5✓ MONM covered by 4.5

Closing total136.5Over by 16.5

Season records: Monmouth and Ball State
MONM	This season	BALL
1-3	Record	1-3
2-2	ATS	1-3
1-3	O/U	0-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: MONM 73–67 BALL · ✓ MONM (69%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
MONM	35	45	80
BALL	29	44	73

1st half: MONM 35, BALL 29 (MONM by 6). The model had MONM by 3.5 and a total of 65.4 (actual 64).

Team stats

MONM		BALL
29-59 49%	Field goals	29-64 45%
9-21 43%	3-pointers	11-30 37%
13-19 68%	Free throws	4-6 67%
40 12 off	Rebounds	29 9 off
17	Assists	20
7	Steals	5
5	Blocks	6
9	Turnovers	10
6	Fouls	17
34	Points in paint	32
12	Fast-break points	8

Players

MONM	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jack Collins G	38	11	6	5	4-10	3-6
Jason Rivera-Torres G	32	8	9	2	4-9	0-2
Cornelius Robinson III F	31	9	4	4	2-8	0-0
Justin Ray G	28	10	4	0	3-8	2-6
Stefanos Spartalis F	22	9	6	3	3-5	0-0
Bench
Andrew Ball F	20	16	3	1	6-9	2-3
Dok Muordar C	13	5	3	0	2-3	0-0
Jinup Dobuol G	7	12	1	0	5-7	2-4
Anthony Martinez G	5	0	0	1	0-0	0-0
O'Marion Harvey F	4	0	0	1	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Jack Leahy, Zubayr Griffin, Lucas Orchard, Corey Miller, Kavion McClain, Quinn Peters

BALL	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Armoni Zeigler G	33	14	5	3	5-10	2-4
Mason Jones F	30	4	4	6	2-4	0-1
Juwan Maxey G	27	13	2	2	4-12	3-9
Elmore James IV G	21	11	1	2	5-11	1-5
Kayden Fish F	5	0	0	1	0-2	0-0
Bench
Preston Copeland F	24	4	6	0	2-3	0-0
Cam Denson F	22	2	3	2	1-4	0-1
Davion Hill G	19	21	3	2	8-13	5-8
Devon Barnes G	13	2	2	2	1-4	0-2
Jai Anthoni Bearden F	6	2	1	0	1-1	0-0

Did not play: Alex Farley, Easton Foster, Zane Doughty, Kody Clancy, Joey Hart

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	MONM -2.5	MONM -5.6	MONM +3.1	W MONM covered
Total	136.5	139.5	Over 3.0	W Over
Projected score	—	MONM 72.6 · BALL 67

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	MONM -3.5	MONM -6.0
1H total	65.4	64
1H projected score	MONM 34.5 · BALL 30.9	MONM 35 · BALL 29

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
MONM LWWL	2-2	50%	—	0-1
BALL WLLL	1-3	25%	—	0-2

Venue/role: MONM neutral site, as favorite; BALL neutral site, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
MONM UUOU	1-3	25%	1-3
BALL UUUU	0-4	0%	1-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MONMlast 4	1-3 25%	2-2 50%	1-3 25%
BALLlast 4	1-3 25%	1-3 25%	0-4 0%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Monmouth

4 games played

Straight up

1-3

25% wins

Against the spread

2-2

50% covers · avg +2.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-3

25% overs · avg −5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-325%

L L L W

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-250%

L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-325%

U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	@LAS	L 60-73	+4.5	L −8.5	143.5	U 133
Nov 13	@HALL	L 58-70	+15.5	W +3.5	135.5	U 128
Nov 18	@SYR	L 73-78	+21.5	W +16.5	145.5	O 151
Nov 23	vsRMU	W 71-70	-2.5	L −1.5	148.5	U 141

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LAS

L 60-73

−8.5

HALL

L 58-70

+3.5

SYR

L 73-78

+16.5

RMU

W 71-70

−1.5

covered 2didn’t cover 2avg +2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LAS

L 60-73

−10.5

HALL

L 58-70

−7.5

SYR

L 73-78

+5.5

RMU

W 71-70

−7.5

over 1under 3avg −5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Ball State

4 games played

Straight up

1-3

25% wins

Against the spread

1-3

25% covers · avg −4.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

0-4

0% overs · avg −16.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-325%

W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-325%

W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

0-40%

U U U U

4 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsUL	W 75-64	-4.5	W +6.5	141.5	U 139
Nov 11	@WIS	L 55-86	+26.5	L −4.5	156.5	U 141
Nov 15	vsLR	L 62-68	-2.5	L −8.5	146.5	U 130
Nov 22	@INST	L 52-70	+7.5	L −10.5	154.5	U 122

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 75-64

+6.5

WIS

L 55-86

−4.5

L 62-68

−8.5

INST

L 52-70

−10.5

covered 1didn’t cover 3avg −4.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 75-64

−2.5

WIS

L 55-86

−15.5

L 62-68

−16.5

INST

L 52-70

−32.5

over 0under 4avg −16.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Monmouth Hawks vs Ball State Cardinals

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Monmouth

Ball State

Monmouth

Ball State