Robert Morris Colonials at Monmouth Hawks: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Nov 23, 3:00 PM ETOceanFirst Bank Center · at Monmouth

Final

#155MONMMonmouth71▲ winner

Closing lineMONM -2.5✓ RMU covered by 1.5

Closing total148.5Under by 7.5

Season records: Robert Morris and Monmouth
RMU	This season	MONM
1-2	Record	0-3
1-2	ATS	2-1
2-1	O/U	1-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: RMU 73–77 MONM · ✓ MONM (64%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	OT	T
RMU	35	25	10	70
MONM	36	24	11	71

1st half: RMU 35, MONM 36 (MONM by 1). The model had MONM by 2.3 and a total of 70.3 (actual 71).

Team stats

RMU		MONM
31-72 43%	Field goals	21-55 38%
6-24 25%	3-pointers	5-20 25%
2-8 25%	Free throws	24-31 77%
41 18 off	Rebounds	38 13 off
10	Assists	8
9	Steals	6
3	Blocks	7
12	Turnovers	11
19	Fouls	9
36	Points in paint	24
8	Fast-break points	10

Players

RMU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Ryan Prather Jr. G	38	12	5	3	5-15	2-7
DeSean Goode F	37	17	10	0	8-14	0-1
Albert Vargas G	36	4	5	4	2-10	0-4
Nikos Chitikoudis F	32	12	7	0	6-9	0-1
Ta'Zir Smith G	29	2	2	1	1-8	0-4
Bench
Darius Livingston G	31	17	5	1	7-13	3-6
Kaleb Brown G	13	6	1	1	2-3	1-1
Cam Wilds G	8	0	3	0	0-0	0-0
Samuel Obenjo F	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Jeremiah Littlejohn, Eddie Cooke III, Josh Hill, Ubong Okon, Vasilije Serafimoski, Cyril Arvanitis, Tanner O'Grady

MONM	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jack Collins G	44	3	11	1	1-6	1-6
Justin Ray G	43	18	3	3	5-11	3-6
Jason Rivera-Torres G	43	16	11	1	4-14	0-5
Stefanos Spartalis F	33	18	4	1	5-13	0-1
Cornelius Robinson III F	32	10	3	2	3-6	1-1
Bench
Dok Muordar C	10	2	1	0	1-2	0-0
Andrew Ball F	9	4	1	0	2-3	0-1
Jinup Dobuol G	4	0	2	0	0-0	0-0
O'Marion Harvey F	4	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Anthony Martinez G	3	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Zubayr Griffin, Lucas Orchard, Kavion McClain, Quinn Peters, Jack Leahy, Corey Miller

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	MONM -2.5	MONM -4.1	MONM +1.6	L RMU covered
Total	148.5	150.1	Over 1.6	L Under
Projected score	—	RMU 73 · MONM 77.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	MONM -2.3	MONM -1.0
1H total	70.3	71
1H projected score	RMU 34 · MONM 36.3	RMU 35 · MONM 36

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
RMU LWL	1-2	33%	1-2	1-2
MONM LWW	2-1	67%	—	—

Venue/role: RMU away, as underdog; MONM home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
RMU OOU	2-1	67%	1-2
MONM UUO	1-2	33%	0-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
RMUlast 3	1-2 33%	1-2 33%	2-1 67%
MONMlast 3	0-3 0%	2-1 67%	1-2 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Robert Morris

3 games played

Straight up

1-2

33% wins

Against the spread

1-2

33% covers · avg −0.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-1

67% overs · avg +10.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-233%

L W L

1 of 3 wonno streak

Against the spread

1-233%

L W L

1 of 3 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-167%

O O U

2 of 3 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	@IOWA	L 69-101	+22.5	L −9.5	136.5	O 170
Nov 6	@DRKE	W 81-79	+7.5	W +9.5	151.5	O 160
Nov 20	@SBU	L 61-75	+11.5	L −2.5	146.5	U 136

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

IOWA

L 69-101

−9.5

DRKE

W 81-79

+9.5

SBU

L 61-75

−2.5

covered 1didn’t cover 2avg −0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

IOWA

L 69-101

+33.5

DRKE

W 81-79

+8.5

SBU

L 61-75

−10.5

over 2under 1avg +10.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Monmouth

3 games played

Straight up

0-3

0% wins

Against the spread

2-1

67% covers · avg +3.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-2

33% overs · avg −4.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-30%

L L L

3 straight losses0 of 3 won

Against the spread

2-167%

L W W

2 straight covers2 of 3 covered

Over / Under

1-233%

U U O

1 of 3 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	@LAS	L 60-73	+4.5	L −8.5	143.5	U 133
Nov 13	@HALL	L 58-70	+15.5	W +3.5	135.5	U 128
Nov 18	@SYR	L 73-78	+21.5	W +16.5	145.5	O 151

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LAS

L 60-73

−8.5

HALL

L 58-70

+3.5

SYR

L 73-78

+16.5

covered 2didn’t cover 1avg +3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LAS

L 60-73

−10.5

HALL

L 58-70

−7.5

SYR

L 73-78

+5.5

over 1under 2avg −4.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Robert Morris Colonials at Monmouth Hawks

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Robert Morris

Monmouth

Robert Morris

Monmouth