Robert Morris Colonials at St. Bonaventure Bonnies: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Nov 20, 6:00 PM ETReilly Center · at St Bonaventure

Final

Closing lineSBU -11.5✓ SBU covered by 2.5

Closing total146.5Under by 10.5

Season records: Robert Morris and St Bonaventure
RMU	This season	SBU
1-1	Record	4-0
1-1	ATS	1-3
2-0	O/U	3-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: RMU 72–81 SBU · ✓ SBU (80%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
RMU	33	28	61
SBU	37	38	75

1st half: RMU 33, SBU 37 (SBU by 4). The model had SBU by 5.6 and a total of 71.5 (actual 70).

Team stats

RMU		SBU
22-61 36%	Field goals	27-61 44%
5-23 22%	3-pointers	7-19 37%
12-13 92%	Free throws	14-17 82%
34 13 off	Rebounds	42 15 off
15	Assists	21
9	Steals	8
0	Blocks	8
15	Turnovers	14
19	Fouls	15
32	Points in paint	40
5	Fast-break points	10

Players

RMU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Ryan Prather Jr. G	36	11	2	1	3-11	1-7
Nikos Chitikoudis F	30	13	5	1	6-11	0-0
DeSean Goode F	26	8	7	2	1-5	0-1
Albert Vargas G	15	0	1	3	0-3	0-1
Ta'Zir Smith G	13	2	1	0	1-6	0-2
Bench
Darius Livingston G	31	2	2	7	1-6	0-3
Cam Wilds G	25	6	2	0	2-5	2-3
Josh Hill F	24	19	10	1	8-14	2-6

Did not play: Samuel Obenjo, Kaleb Brown, Jeremiah Littlejohn, Eddie Cooke III, Ubong Okon, Vasilije Serafimoski, Cyril Arvanitis, Tanner O'Grady

SBU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Cayden Charles G	37	12	10	4	5-11	0-3
Frank Mitchell F	34	19	16	2	9-14	0-0
Darryl Simmons II G	32	16	1	5	5-11	3-6
Dasonte Bowen G	28	2	1	5	0-7	0-1
Joe Grahovac F	18	11	1	2	3-4	3-3
Bench
Daniel Egbuniwe F	17	5	4	0	1-3	1-2
Amar'e Marshall G	14	6	2	0	2-5	0-2
Andrew Osasuyi F	8	4	3	1	2-2	0-0
Achille Lonati G	6	0	0	0	0-3	0-1
Ilia Ermakov G	6	0	1	2	0-1	0-1

Did not play: John Ikpotokin, Brayden Jackson, Xander Wedlow, Jack DeRose, Broek Ostrom

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	SBU -11.5	SBU -9.6	RMU +1.9	L SBU covered
Total	146.5	152.6	Over 6.1	L Under
Projected score	—	RMU 71.5 · SBU 81.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	SBU -5.6	SBU -4.0
1H total	71.5	70
1H projected score	RMU 32.9 · SBU 38.6	RMU 33 · SBU 37

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
RMU LW	1-1	50%	1-1	1-1
SBU WLLL	1-3	25%	0-3	1-3

Venue/role: RMU away, as underdog; SBU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
RMU OO	2-0	100%	1-1
SBU UOOO	3-1	75%	4-0

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
RMUlast 2	1-1 50%	1-1 50%	2-0 100%
SBUlast 4	4-0 100%	1-3 25%	3-1 75%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Robert Morris

2 games played

Straight up

1-1

50% wins

Against the spread

1-1

50% covers · avg 0 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-0

100% overs · avg +21 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-150%

L W

1 of 2 wonno streak

Against the spread

1-150%

L W

1 of 2 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-0100%

O O

2 straight overs2 of 2 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	@IOWA	L 69-101	+22.5	L −9.5	136.5	O 170
Nov 6	@DRKE	W 81-79	+7.5	W +9.5	151.5	O 160

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

IOWA

L 69-101

−9.5

DRKE

W 81-79

+9.5

covered 1didn’t cover 1avg 0 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

IOWA

L 69-101

+33.5

DRKE

W 81-79

+8.5

over 2under 0avg +21 ptslonger = bigger margin

St Bonaventure

4 games played

Straight up

4-0

100% wins

Against the spread

1-3

25% covers · avg −1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-1

75% overs · avg +8.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-0100%

W W W W

4 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-325%

W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-175%

U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsBRAD	W 69-63	-1.5	W +4.5	139.5	U 132
Nov 8	vsCAN	W 89-70	-21.5	L −2.5	136.5	O 159
Nov 12	vsSIE	W 75-66	-9.5	L −0.5	140.5	O 141
Nov 15	vsYSU	W 84-80	-9.5	L −5.5	146.5	O 164

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BRAD

W 69-63

+4.5

CAN

W 89-70

−2.5

SIE

W 75-66

−0.5

YSU

W 84-80

−5.5

covered 1didn’t cover 3avg −1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BRAD

W 69-63

−7.5

CAN

W 89-70

+22.5

SIE

W 75-66

+0.5

YSU

W 84-80

+17.5

over 3under 1avg +8.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Robert Morris Colonials at St. Bonaventure Bonnies

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Robert Morris

St Bonaventure

Robert Morris

St Bonaventure