Brown Bears at Stony Brook Seawolves: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Nov 20, 6:30 PM ETStony Brook Arena · at Stony Brook

#156BRWNBrown70final

Final

#191STBKStony Brook80▲ winner

Closing lineSTBK -3.5✓ STBK covered by 6.5

Closing total136.5Over by 13.5

Season records: Brown and Stony Brook
BRWN	This season	STBK
1-4	Record	1-1
2-3	ATS	2-0
2-3	O/U	1-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: BRWN 70–75 STBK · ✓ STBK (66%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
BRWN	32	38	70
STBK	49	31	80

1st half: BRWN 32, STBK 49 (STBK by 17). The model had STBK by 2.7 and a total of 68.0 (actual 81).

Team stats

BRWN		STBK
28-60 47%	Field goals	29-60 48%
8-19 42%	3-pointers	8-19 42%
6-11 55%	Free throws	14-20 70%
35 12 off	Rebounds	33 11 off
13	Assists	15
7	Steals	11
6	Blocks	4
13	Turnovers	9
19	Fouls	9
34	Points in paint	40
3	Fast-break points	5

Players

BRWN	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jeremiah Jenkins G	30	7	4	7	3-8	1-3
Isaiah Langham G	24	11	1	1	5-8	1-1
Landon Lewis F	22	13	6	0	6-15	1-2
N'famara Dabo F	21	8	6	0	2-3	0-0
Luke Paragon G	6	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Bench
Adrian Uchidiuno G	33	14	7	2	5-13	3-8
David Rochester G	23	9	3	0	4-6	1-2
Malcolm Wrisby-Jefferson G	18	2	5	3	1-3	0-0
Brady Loughlin G	14	6	1	0	2-4	1-3
Wyatt DeGraaf F	6	0	1	0	0-0	0-0
Charlie O'Sullivan F	3	0	1	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Jerrell Barron Jr., Jonah Drezner, AJ Lesburt Jr., Drew Kania

STBK	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Rob Brown III G	37	12	4	2	2-8	2-5
Erik Pratt G	34	27	2	4	10-20	3-6
Collin O'Connor G	27	4	4	2	2-4	0-0
Richard Goods F	27	13	7	1	5-8	2-3
Quin Gorman F	18	7	6	1	3-7	0-2
Bench
Andrej Shoshkikj G	23	6	2	5	3-4	0-0
Tomas Valentiny F	22	8	2	0	3-5	1-3
Oleg Kojenets F	12	3	4	0	1-4	0-0

Did not play: Jonah Butler, Liam Dagostino, Ethan Simmon, Andrew Okafor, Jake Harbatkin, Leon Nahar, Toby Onyekonwu

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	STBK -3.5	STBK -4.7	STBK +1.2	W STBK covered
Total	136.5	145.1	Over 8.6	W Over
Projected score	—	BRWN 70.2 · STBK 74.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	STBK -2.7	STBK -17.0
1H total	68.0	81
1H projected score	BRWN 32.7 · STBK 35.3	BRWN 32 · STBK 49

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BRWN LWLLW	2-3	40%	0-1	1-2
STBK WW	2-0	100%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: BRWN away, as underdog; STBK home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
BRWN UOOUU	2-3	40%	1-4
STBK UO	1-1	50%	1-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BRWNlast 5	1-4 20%	2-3 40%	2-3 40%
STBKlast 2	1-1 50%	2-0 100%	1-1 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

BRWN 2–1 STBKBRWN leads · 3 games since 2021-22 · BRWN 2-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 27, 2024-25	STBK 54 @ BRWN 77	BRWN -9.5	BRWN W
Dec 29, 2023-24	BRWN 65 @ STBK 69	STBK -2.5	STBK W
Nov 17, 2022-23	STBK 53 @ BRWN 64	BRWN -6.5	BRWN W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Brown

5 games played

Straight up

1-4

20% wins

Against the spread

2-3

40% covers · avg −3.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-3

40% overs · avg +3.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-420%

L L L L W

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-340%

L W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-340%

U O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	vsSIE	L 46-62	+3.5	L −12.5	142.5	U 108
Nov 9	vsUVM	L 84-89	+5.5	W +0.5	131.5	O 173
Nov 12	@BU	L 77-90	+3.5	L −9.5	129.5	O 167
Nov 14	vsHAMP	L 63-72	-1.5	L −10.5	139.5	U 135
Nov 18	vsHC	W 68-49	-2.5	W +16.5	141.5	U 117

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SIE

L 46-62

−12.5

UVM

L 84-89

+0.5

L 77-90

−9.5

HAMP

L 63-72

−10.5

W 68-49

+16.5

covered 2didn’t cover 3avg −3.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SIE

L 46-62

−34.5

UVM

L 84-89

+41.5

L 77-90

+37.5

HAMP

L 63-72

−4.5

W 68-49

−24.5

over 2under 3avg +3.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Stony Brook

2 games played

Straight up

1-1

50% wins

Against the spread

2-0

100% covers · avg +10.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-1

50% overs · avg +7 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-150%

W L

1 of 2 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-0100%

W W

2 straight covers2 of 2 covered

Over / Under

1-150%

U O

1 of 2 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	vsME	W 71-60	-3.5	W +7.5	131.5	U 131
Nov 15	@YALE	L 79-86	+20.5	W +13.5	150.5	O 165

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 71-60

+7.5

YALE

L 79-86

+13.5

covered 2didn’t cover 0avg +10.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 71-60

−0.5

YALE

L 79-86

+14.5

over 1under 1avg +7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Brown Bears at Stony Brook Seawolves

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Brown

Stony Brook

Brown

Stony Brook