Yuengling Center · at South Florida
Closing line
USF -2.5✓ USF covered by 10.5
USF -2.5✓ USF covered by 10.5Closing total162.5Under by 27.5
 USU | This season | USF |
|---|---|---|
| 6-0 | Record | 4-4 |
| 4-2 | ATS | 3-5 |
| 3-3 | O/U | 5-3 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: USU 84–83 USF · ✗ USU (55%) lost
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| USU | 20 | 41 | 61 |
| USF | 41 | 33 | 74 |
1st half: USU 20, USF 41 (USF by 21). The model had USU by 1.0 and a total of 78.0 (actual 61).
Team stats
| USU | USF | |
|---|---|---|
| 22-62 35% | Field goals | 21-47 45% |
| 7-24 29% | 3-pointers | 8-21 38% |
| 10-15 67% | Free throws | 24-32 75% |
| 34 12 off | Rebounds | 40 9 off |
| 11 | Assists | 13 |
| 8 | Steals | 7 |
| 5 | Blocks | 4 |
| 14 | Turnovers | 17 |
| 21 | Fouls | 14 |
| 28 | Points in paint | 26 |
| 6 | Fast-break points | 11 |
Players
| USU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Falslev G | 37 | 19 | 8 | 2 | 7-17 | 3-6 |
| MJ Collins Jr. G | 31 | 19 | 1 | 0 | 5-13 | 1-4 |
| Drake Allen G | 20 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 2-4 | 0-1 |
| Karson Templin F | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-0 |
| Tucker Anderson F | 11 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1-4 | 0-3 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Garry Clark F | 23 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 2-6 | 0-0 |
| Kolby King G | 20 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1-5 | 0-4 |
| Elijah Perryman G | 17 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Adlan Elamin F | 16 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2-5 | 2-4 |
| Jordy Barnes G | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Zach Keller F | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Luke Kearney, Brayden Boe, David Iweze, Kingston Tosi
| USF | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Pinion G | 35 | 17 | 3 | 2 | 6-10 | 5-9 |
| Wes Enis G | 30 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3-9 | 1-4 |
| CJ Brown G | 30 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 4-9 | 1-2 |
| Josh Omojafo G | 29 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 3-8 | 1-3 |
| Izaiyah Nelson F | 24 | 11 | 10 | 0 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Adriel Nyorha G | 18 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 2-7 | 0-2 |
| Isaiah Jones F | 16 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Daimion Collins F | 16 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Gavin Hightower G | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Onyx Nnani, De'Ante Green, Devin Haid, Xavier Brown, Caleb Sanders, Tristan Beckford
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketUSF -2.5
ModelUSU -1.4
Model edgeUSU +3.9
L USF covered
Total
Market162.5
Model166.8
Model edgeOver 4.3
L Under
Projected score
USU 84.1 · USF 82.7
USU 61 · USF 74
Win probability
USU 55%
1st half
Spread
USU -1.0
USF -21.0
Total
78.0
61 points
Projected score
USU 39.5 · USF 38.5
USU 20 · USF 41
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenUSU -2.5
5 → USF
CloseUSF -2.5
5 pts toward USF
Total
Open162.5
no move
Close162.5
No change since the open
Moneyline
USU +114 · USF -135
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened USU -2.5 · closed USF -2.5 · moved 5 toward USFmodel USU -1.5
model USU -1.5
Opened 162.5 · unchangedmodel 167
model 167
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| USUlast 6 | 6-0 100% | 4-2 67% | 3-3 50% |
| USFlast 8 | 4-4 50% | 3-5 38% | 5-3 63% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
USU 1–0 USFUSU leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · USU 1-0 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 14, 2024-25 | USF 67 @ USU 88 | USU -16.5 | USU W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Utah State
6 games played
Straight up
6-0
100% wins
Against the spread
4-2
67% covers · avg +3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
3-3
50% overs · avg +2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
7
vs
VCU
VCUW 80-77
+0.5
12
vs
WEB
WEBW 83-73
−12.5
15
vs
UTEP
UTEPW 75-51
+7.5
21
vs
TULN
TULNW 96-75
+12.5
23
vs
DAV
DAVW 94-60
+24.5
29
vs
MTST
MTSTW 84-81
−14.5
covered 4didn’t cover 2avg +3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
7
vsVCU
VCUW 80-77
−6.5
12
vsWEB
WEBW 83-73
−0.5
15
vsUTEP
UTEPW 75-51
−23.5
21
vsTULN
TULNW 96-75
+19.5
23
vsDAV
DAVW 94-60
+6.5
29
vsMTST
MTSTW 84-81
+16.5
over 3under 3avg +2 ptslonger = bigger margin
South Florida
8 games played
Straight up
4-4
50% wins
Against the spread
3-5
38% covers · avg −0.4 pts vs the line
Over / Under
5-3
63% overs · avg +7.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs FAMU | W 102-67 | -25.5 | W +9.5 | 153.5 | O 169 |
| Nov 8 | vs GW | L 95-99 | -1.5 | L −5.5 | 159.5 | O 194 |
| Nov 12 | vs COPP | W 100-50 | -34.5 | W +15.5 | 167.5 | U 150 |
| Nov 16 | @ KENN | W 108-89 | -7.5 | W +11.5 | 177.5 | O 197 |
| Nov 19 | @ OKST | L 95-103 | +3.5 | L −4.5 | 177.5 | O 198 |
| Nov 26 | vsVCU | L 66-78 | +1.5 | L −10.5 | 172.5 | U 144 |
| Nov 27 | vs WKU | W 97-91 | -7.5 | L −1.5 | 167.5 | O 188 |
| Nov 28 | vs CSU | L 68-83 | -2.5 | L −17.5 | 155.5 | U 151 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsFAMU
FAMUW 102-67
+9.5
8
vsGW
GWL 95-99
−5.5
12
vsCOPP
COPPW 100-50
+15.5
16
@KENN
KENNW 108-89
+11.5
19
@OKST
OKSTL 95-103
−4.5
26
vsVCU
VCUL 66-78
−10.5
27
vsWKU
WKUW 97-91
−1.5
28
vsCSU
CSUL 68-83
−17.5
covered 3didn’t cover 5avg −0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsFAMU
FAMUW 102-67
+15.5
8
vsGW
GWL 95-99
+34.5
12
vsCOPP
COPPW 100-50
−17.5
16
@KENN
KENNW 108-89
+19.5
19
@OKST
OKSTL 95-103
+20.5
26
vsVCU
VCUL 66-78
−28.5
27
vsWKU
WKUW 97-91
+20.5
28
vsCSU
CSUL 68-83
−4.5
over 5under 3avg +7.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Utah State
6-0 overall · 0-0 in conference · Pac-12 Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Montana St84–81
- Wvs Davidson94–60
- Wvs Tulane96–75
- Wvs UTEP75–51
- Wvs Weber St83–73
5 days since their last game.
South Florida
4-4 overall · 0-0 in conference · American Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Colorado St68–83
- Wvs Western KY97–91
- Lvs VCU66–78
- L@ Oklahoma St95–103
- W@ Kennesaw St108–89
6 days since their last game.