The Citadel Bulldogs at Davidson Wildcats: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Dec 4, 7:00 PM ETJohn M. Belk Arena · at Davidson

Final

#115DAVDavidson79▲ winner

Closing lineDAV -18.5✓ CIT covered by 2.5

Closing total137.5Over by 4.5

Season records: The Citadel and Davidson
CIT	This season	DAV
0-6	Record	5-1
0-6	ATS	4-2
2-4	O/U	4-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: CIT 62–82 DAV · ✓ DAV (96%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
CIT	29	34	63
DAV	36	43	79

1st half: CIT 29, DAV 36 (DAV by 7). The model had DAV by 12.0 and a total of 67.5 (actual 65).

Team stats

CIT		DAV
25-50 50%	Field goals	27-60 45%
5-20 25%	3-pointers	12-29 41%
8-14 57%	Free throws	13-21 62%
31 6 off	Rebounds	36 13 off
10	Assists	16
2	Steals	9
1	Blocks	2
14	Turnovers	6
18	Fouls	16
32	Points in paint	26
6	Fast-break points	11

Players

CIT	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Eze Wali G	30	8	4	1	4-8	0-1
Sola Adebisi F	27	6	5	2	3-6	0-1
Christian Moore F	27	10	4	1	4-9	2-5
Carter Kingsbury G	14	5	5	0	2-2	0-0
Simeon German F	14	2	3	0	1-2	0-0
Bench
Braxton Williams F	24	9	4	0	3-6	1-3
Gabe Hernandez G	23	10	0	2	4-5	0-1
Logan Applegate G	17	8	3	3	2-5	2-5
Keynan Davis G	9	3	1	0	1-5	0-3
Dante Kearse G	5	2	1	0	1-2	0-1
Cassius Bonjasky F	5	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Chase Williams C	4	0	0	1	0-0	0-0
Marcos Gonzales G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Logan Menefee, Jameson Heck, Rowan Irelan, Aidan Alexander, Jack Walter

DAV	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Josh Scovens F	29	15	4	1	6-8	0-0
Sam Brown G	29	10	2	5	4-12	1-5
Devin Brown G	26	9	1	1	3-8	3-7
Ian Platteeuw C	18	4	7	3	1-3	0-0
Parker Friedrichsen G	16	3	2	0	1-6	1-3
Bench
Roberts Blums G	22	16	5	2	5-9	4-7
Nick Coval G	21	16	3	2	6-8	3-4
JaQualon Roberts F	16	6	5	1	1-1	0-0
Hunter Adam G	11	0	0	1	0-2	0-1
Joe Hurlburt F	6	0	4	0	0-3	0-2
Manie Joses F	3	0	1	0	0-0	0-0
RJ Greer G	3	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Phillip Kavu, Sean Logan, Brock Matheny, John Nowland

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	DAV -18.5	DAV -20.1	DAV +1.6	L CIT covered
Total	137.5	144.0	Over 6.5	W Over
Projected score	—	CIT 61.9 · DAV 82

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	DAV -12.0	DAV -7.0
1H total	67.5	65
1H projected score	CIT 27.7 · DAV 39.7	CIT 29 · DAV 36

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CIT LLLLL	0-6	0%	0-2	0-6
DAV WLWLW	4-2	67%	2-1	2-1

Venue/role: CIT away, as underdog; DAV home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
CIT OOUUU	2-4	33%	0-6
DAV UOUOO	4-2	67%	5-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CITlast 6	0-6 0%	0-6 0%	2-4 33%
DAVlast 6	5-1 83%	4-2 67%	4-2 67%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

The Citadel

6 games played

Straight up

0-6

0% wins

Against the spread

0-6

0% covers · avg −9.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg +0.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-60%

L L L L L L

6 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

0-60%

L L L L L L

6 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

U O O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 6	@BC	L 47-76	+15.5	L −13.5	144.5	U 123
Nov 10	vsCHSO	L 86-96	+2.5	L −7.5	145.5	O 182
Nov 14	@WGA	L 92-100	+6.5	L −1.5	150.5	O 192
Nov 24	vsBELL	L 58-70	+3.5	L −8.5	156.5	U 128
Nov 26	vsHCU	L 65-72	+1.5	L −5.5	137.5	U 137
Nov 30	vsPRES	L 41-69	+8.5	L −19.5	133.5	U 110

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

L 47-76

−13.5

CHSO

L 86-96

−7.5

WGA

L 92-100

−1.5

BELL

L 58-70

−8.5

HCU

L 65-72

−5.5

PRES

L 41-69

−19.5

covered 0didn’t cover 6avg −9.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

L 47-76

−21.5

CHSO

L 86-96

+36.5

WGA

L 92-100

+41.5

BELL

L 58-70

−28.5

HCU

L 65-72

−0.5

PRES

L 41-69

−23.5

over 2under 4avg +0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Davidson

6 games played

Straight up

5-1

83% wins

Against the spread

4-2

67% covers · avg +1.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-2

67% overs · avg 0 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-183%

W W W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

4-267%

W W L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-267%

O U O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	vsWSU	W 85-69	-4.5	W +11.5	153.5	O 154
Nov 11	@CLT	W 62-55	+1.5	W +8.5	143.5	U 117
Nov 15	vsBGSU	W 91-87	-4.5	L −0.5	144.5	O 178
Nov 21	vsBC	W 59-49	+1.5	W +11.5	140.5	U 108
Nov 23	vsUSU	L 60-94	+9.5	L −24.5	147.5	O 154
Nov 28	vsNCAT	W 90-74	-13.5	W +2.5	145.5	O 164

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WSU

W 85-69

+11.5

CLT

W 62-55

+8.5

BGSU

W 91-87

−0.5

W 59-49

+11.5

USU

L 60-94

−24.5

NCAT

W 90-74

+2.5

covered 4didn’t cover 2avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WSU

W 85-69

+0.5

CLT

W 62-55

−26.5

BGSU

W 91-87

+33.5

W 59-49

−32.5

USU

L 60-94

+6.5

NCAT

W 90-74

+18.5

over 4under 2avg 0 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The Citadel @ Davidson

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

The Citadel

Davidson

The Citadel

Davidson