North Carolina A&T Aggies at Davidson Wildcats: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 28, 4:00 PM ETJohn M. Belk Arena · at Davidson

#275NCATNC A&T74final

Final

#115DAVDavidson90▲ winner

Closing lineDAV -13.5✓ DAV covered by 2.5

Closing total145.5Over by 18.5

Season records: NC A&T and Davidson
NCAT	This season	DAV
2-1	Record	4-1
3-0	ATS	3-2
1-2	O/U	3-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: NCAT 67–79 DAV · ✓ DAV (84%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
NCAT	38	36	74
DAV	47	43	90

1st half: NCAT 38, DAV 47 (DAV by 9). The model had DAV by 6.7 and a total of 68.3 (actual 85).

Team stats

NCAT		DAV
24-47 51%	Field goals	31-55 56%
8-17 47%	3-pointers	8-17 47%
18-30 60%	Free throws	20-35 57%
29 7 off	Rebounds	35 11 off
8	Assists	16
5	Steals	6
4	Blocks	3
11	Turnovers	6
26	Fouls	22
26	Points in paint	44
15	Fast-break points	9

Players

NCAT	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Lewis Walker F	35	22	5	1	7-10	2-3
Trent Middleton Jr. G	28	12	2	4	4-7	1-4
Brooklyn Vick G	26	3	1	0	1-5	0-0
Bryson Ogletree G	22	11	3	0	4-5	3-4
Amadou Doumbia F	22	5	4	1	2-2	0-0
Bench
Dwayne Pierce G	27	6	2	2	2-9	1-4
Zamoku Weluche-Ume F	18	6	3	0	2-5	0-1
KJ Debrick F	16	6	4	0	1-1	1-1
Mujahiid Burton G	4	0	0	0	0-2	0-0
Will Felton C	2	3	3	0	1-1	0-0

Did not play: Efstratios Kalliontzis, Yancarlos Cueto, Lo Walker, Chanler Montgomery, Uchenna Kellman-Nicholes, Jalal McKie

DAV	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Josh Scovens F	34	21	8	3	7-12	1-1
Devin Brown G	28	9	3	2	4-7	0-2
Ian Platteeuw C	24	10	7	6	5-8	0-0
Parker Friedrichsen G	19	8	4	1	3-6	0-1
Sam Brown G	18	13	0	2	4-6	2-3
Bench
Nick Coval G	27	11	0	2	3-5	1-1
Manie Joses F	17	5	6	0	1-2	1-2
JaQualon Roberts F	16	4	3	0	1-2	0-1
Roberts Blums G	14	9	2	0	3-6	3-5
RJ Greer G	3	0	0	0	0-1	0-1

Did not play: Phillip Kavu, Brock Matheny, John Nowland, Joe Hurlburt, Sean Logan, Hunter Adam

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	DAV -13.5	DAV -11.4	NCAT +2.1	L DAV covered
Total	145.5	145.9	Over 0.4	W Over
Projected score	—	NCAT 67.2 · DAV 78.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	DAV -6.7	DAV -9.0
1H total	68.3	85
1H projected score	NCAT 30.8 · DAV 37.5	NCAT 38 · DAV 47

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NCAT WWW	3-0	100%	2-0	1-0
DAV WWLWL	3-2	60%	1-1	1-1

Venue/role: NCAT away, as underdog; DAV home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
NCAT OUU	1-2	33%	2-1
DAV OUOUO	3-2	60%	4-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NCATlast 3	2-1 67%	3-0 100%	1-2 33%
DAVlast 5	4-1 80%	3-2 60%	3-2 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

NC A&T

3 games played

Straight up

2-1

67% wins

Against the spread

3-0

100% covers · avg +9.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-2

33% overs · avg −0.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-167%

L W W

2 straight wins2 of 3 won

Against the spread

3-0100%

W W W

3 straight covers3 of 3 covered

Over / Under

1-233%

O U U

2 straight unders1 of 3 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	@SC	L 72-91	+22.5	W +3.5	143.5	O 163
Nov 10	vsSCST	W 85-62	-2.5	W +20.5	159.5	U 147
Nov 18	@MORG	W 79-73	-2.5	W +3.5	161.5	U 152

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

L 72-91

+3.5

SCST

W 85-62

+20.5

MORG

W 79-73

+3.5

covered 3didn’t cover 0avg +9.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

L 72-91

+19.5

SCST

W 85-62

−12.5

MORG

W 79-73

−9.5

over 1under 2avg −0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Davidson

5 games played

Straight up

4-1

80% wins

Against the spread

3-2

60% covers · avg +1.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-2

60% overs · avg −3.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-180%

W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-260%

W W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-260%

O U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	vsWSU	W 85-69	-4.5	W +11.5	153.5	O 154
Nov 11	@CLT	W 62-55	+1.5	W +8.5	143.5	U 117
Nov 15	vsBGSU	W 91-87	-4.5	L −0.5	144.5	O 178
Nov 21	vsBC	W 59-49	+1.5	W +11.5	140.5	U 108
Nov 23	vsUSU	L 60-94	+9.5	L −24.5	147.5	O 154

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WSU

W 85-69

+11.5

CLT

W 62-55

+8.5

BGSU

W 91-87

−0.5

W 59-49

+11.5

USU

L 60-94

−24.5

covered 3didn’t cover 2avg +1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WSU

W 85-69

+0.5

CLT

W 62-55

−26.5

BGSU

W 91-87

+33.5

W 59-49

−32.5

USU

L 60-94

+6.5

over 3under 2avg −3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

North Carolina A&T Aggies at Davidson Wildcats

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

NC A&T

Davidson

NC A&T

Davidson