1. NCAAB
  2. Mon, Nov 2
  3. MEM vs ISU
NCAAB · Mon, Nov 2

Memphis Tigers vs Iowa State Cyclones

Sanford Pentagon · Neutral site
#76MEMMemphis
vs
#13ISUIowa State AP #18
LineISU -14.5moved 1 toward ISU
Total155.5no move
MEMThis seasonISU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects ISU 84–68 · win probability ISU 92%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Spread
Total
Winner
Line
ISU -14.5
moved 1 toward ISU
Total
155.5
model 151.6 · Under by 4
Model edge
ISU by 1.5
model vs market
Public on the spread
87% MEM
19% of the money
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: ISU has more of the edges

MEM 0, ISU 8 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
ISUBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: MEM 18.9%, ISU 14.9%. Forced: MEM 18.6%, ISU 22.6%
ISUBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: MEM 34.7, ISU 34.5. Allowed: MEM 42.4, ISU 28.1
ISUBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: MEM 35.3%, ISU 35.1%. Defensive: MEM 64.3%, ISU 71.4%
ISUBig
Three-pointers
MEM hits 31.6% and allows 30.6%; ISU hits 38.3% and allows 32.0%. Threes are 33.7% and 38.8% of their shots
ISUBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: MEM 48.7 and allows 48.7; ISU 56.2 and allows 49.8
ISUSmall
ISU offense vs MEM defense
Offense 26th of 366 against a defense 116th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Tempo
About 70 possessions: MEM plays 71.9 a game (37th fastest), ISU 68.5 (204th). Faster games mean more points
ISUSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: MEM 15%, ISU 57%. Transfers in: MEM 9, ISU 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
ISUSmall
MEM offense vs ISU defense
Offense 62nd of 366 against a defense 6th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
MEM has played the 81st-hardest schedule, ISU the 38th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Context
Neutral floor
No home court: the model takes it out of the line
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

How games like this went

Division I games since 2023-24, closing lines
SituationGamesFavorite wonFavorite coveredWent over
Neutral-site favorites of 10 to 14.523784%53%43%
Non-conference games at this spread98888%50%51%
Lines that moved 1+ toward the favorite676375%50%51%
Games with a total of 155 to 159.5155574%51%49%
A bet at standard prices needs 52.4% to break even, and most situations sit near 50%. Past rates, not a prediction.

Market

Open → current
Spread
1 pt toward ISU
Total
No change since the open
Moneyline
MEM +775 · ISU -1400
Line movement
Median of 8 sportsbooks, pre-tip-off · tap a dot
Opened ISU -13.5 · now ISU -14.5 · moved 1 toward ISUmodel ISU -16
Opened 155.5 · unchangedmodel 151.5
Nov 1line modelNow

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money
MEM +14.5SpreadISU -14.5
Bets
Money
Money leans ISU -14.5 · 68 pts more of the money than of the bets
Over 155.5TotalUnder 155.5
Bets
Money
MEMWinnerISU
Bets
Money
Money is 40 pts ahead of bets on MEM
Sports Betting Dime, an average of sportsbooks. Read . ⓘ

Books

8 sportsbooks · current prices
BookSpreadTotalMoneyline
MEMISUOverUnderMEMISU
BetMGMMGM-14.5-110+14.5-110155.5-110155.5-110+775-1400
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag-14.5-105+14.5-115155.5-110155.5-110——
BetRiversBetRivers-14.5-114+14.5-109155.5-115155.5-108+600-1115
BetUSBetUS-14.5-105+14.5-115155.5-110155.5-110——
BovadaBovada-14.5-105+14.5-115155.5-115155.5-105+650-1100
DraftKingsDK-14.5-108+14.5-112155.5-110155.5-110+950-1650
FanDuelFD-14.5-110+14.5-110155.5-110155.5-110+860-1600
LowVig.agLowVig.ag-14.5-101+14.5-111155.5-108155.5-108——
Prices from The Odds API, updated 2:00 AM ET. Green = best price in the column.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
SpreadISU -14.5ISU -16.1ISU +1.6
Total155.5151.6Under 3.9
Projected score—MEM 67.7 · ISU 83.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadISU -9.5—
1H total70.9—
1H projected scoreMEM 30.7 · ISU 40.2—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Iowa State has the better starters

Position by position: Memphis 0, Iowa State 1, even 4
MemphisBetterIowa State
G L. Almodovar TR14.6 pts · 3.7 reb · 0.6 ast Score 80
Even
G R. Prather TR16.1 pts · 3.9 reb · 3.7 ast Score 84
G B. Cummings TR12.5 pts · 1.5 reb · 2.1 ast Score 84
Even
G L. Bond TR12.1 pts · 4.7 reb · 1.5 ast Score 74
G J. Reid TR10.1 pts · 1.4 reb · 5 ast Score 83
ISUSmall
G T. Lipsey13.5 pts · 3.9 reb · 5.1 ast Score 98
F T. Weeks TR20.1 pts · 5.5 reb · 2.3 ast Score 88
Even
G J. Johnson TR16.8 pts · 4 reb · 3.6 ast Score 98
F C. Williams TR11.7 pts · 9.1 reb · 0.8 ast Score 68
Even
G K. Toure8.6 pts · 3.5 reb · 2.3 ast Score 79
MemphisBetterIowa State
MEM offense62nd of 366 · +2.6
ISUSmall
ISU defense6th of 366 · +9.3
MEM defense116th of 366 · -1.5
ISUSmall
ISU offense26th of 366 · +7.0
Backcourt+4.5 · 3 players
ISUBig
Backcourt+14.4 · 5 players
Frontcourt+4.1 · 2 players
No call
FrontcourtNo numbers yet
Bench+4.4 · 5 players
Even
Bench+4.1 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestMEM betterISU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Memphis
Guards
L. Almodovar28 min · TRB. Cummings26 min · TRJ. Reid26 min · TRJ. Thedford20 minJ. Holloway13 min · TRP. PoundsNew
Forwards
T. Weeks34 min · TRC. Williams33 min · TRR. Vavers25 min · TRJ. Deng13 min · TRM. Logue11 min · TRW. Whorton9 min
Iowa State
Guards
R. Prather35 min · TRL. Bond33 min · TRT. Lipsey32 minJ. Johnson31 min · TRK. Toure25 minJ. Batemon16 min
Forwards
T. Singleton25 min · TRB. Buchanan25 minT. Manning21 min · TRD. Pleta11 minX. Mitchell3 minD. Rinaldo-KomlanNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
MEMISU
Scoring
75.2 #158Points per game82.0 #32
1.04 #264Points per possession1.19 #20
71.9 #37Pace (possessions)68.5 #204
Shooting
48.7 #298Effective FG%56.2 #20
31.6 #3033-point %38.3 #12
33.7 #3053-point attempt rate38.8 #196
34.7 #190Free throw rate34.5 #194
Possessions
18.9 #316Turnover rate14.9 #58
35.3 #41Offensive rebound rate35.1 #45
13.3 #193Assists per game17.4 #16
Defense
76.6 #234Points allowed65.6 #9
1.07 #124Points allowed per possession0.96 #4
48.7 #55Opponent effective FG%49.8 #92
30.6 #22Opponent 3-point %32.0 #63
18.6 #69Turnovers forced22.6 #4
64.3 #350Defensive rebound rate71.4 #85
8.4 #19Steals per game9.0 #9
4.3 #49Blocks per game2.6 #289
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Memphis

13-19 in 2025-26 overall · 8-11 in conference · American Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Tulane69–81
  • W@ Tulane96–95
  • Lvs South Florida89–96
  • L@ East Carolina68–84
  • Lvs Wichita St82–88

A week or more of rest.

Iowa State

29-8 in 2025-26 overall · 14-7 in conference · Big 12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Tennessee62–76
  • Wvs Kentucky82–63
  • Wvs Tennessee St108–74
  • Lvs Arizona80–82
  • Wvs Texas Tech75–53

A week or more of rest.