1. NCAAB
  2. Sun, Nov 15
  3. LOU @ MEM
NCAAB · Sun, Nov 15

Louisville Cardinals at Memphis Tigers

FedExForum · at Memphis
#14LOULouisville AP #11
@
#76MEMMemphis
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
LOUThis seasonMEM
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects LOU 85–72 · win probability LOU 87%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 157.3
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: LOU has more of the edges

LOU 6, MEM 1 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
LOUBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: LOU 56.5 and allows 48.7; MEM 48.7 and allows 48.7
LOUBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: LOU 32.8%, MEM 35.3%. Defensive: LOU 72.5%, MEM 64.3%
LOUSmall
LOU offense vs MEM defense
Offense 15th of 366 against a defense 116th, on the model’s ratings
LOUSmall
Three-pointers
LOU hits 36.0% and allows 32.3%; MEM hits 31.6% and allows 30.6%. Threes are 52.9% and 33.7% of their shots
LOUSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: LOU 33.1, MEM 34.7. Allowed: LOU 33.0, MEM 42.4
MEMSmall
Home court
MEM at home. This season: MEM 0-0 at home, LOU 0-0 away
LOUSmall
MEM offense vs LOU defense
Offense 62nd of 366 against a defense 16th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
LOU has played the 44th-hardest schedule, MEM the 81st. A record against a soft schedule means less
Context
Tempo
About 71 possessions: LOU plays 71.0 a game (77th fastest), MEM 71.9 (37th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: LOU 16.8%, MEM 18.9%. Forced: LOU 16.7%, MEM 18.6%
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: LOU 12%, MEM 15%. Transfers in: LOU 8, MEM 9. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—LOU -13.0—
Total—157.3—
Projected score—LOU 85.2 · MEM 72.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadLOU -7.9—
1H total73.5—
1H projected scoreLOU 40.7 · MEM 32.8—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Louisville has the better starters

Position by position: Louisville 1, Memphis 0, even 4
LouisvilleBetterMemphis
G J. Shelstad TR15.6 pts · 2.9 reb · 4.9 ast Score 92
Even
G L. Almodovar TR14.6 pts · 3.7 reb · 0.6 ast Score 80
G S. Trimble TR14 pts · 3.8 reb · 3 ast Score 90
Even
G B. Cummings TR12.5 pts · 1.5 reb · 2.1 ast Score 84
G D. Montgomery TR13.4 pts · 4 reb · 2.1 ast Score 92
Even
G J. Reid TR10.1 pts · 1.4 reb · 5 ast Score 83
F F. Bidunga TR13.3 pts · 9 reb · 1.5 ast Score 99
Even
F T. Weeks TR20.1 pts · 5.5 reb · 2.3 ast Score 88
F L. Wells TR15.1 pts · 7.1 reb · 2.2 ast Score 85
LOUSmall
F C. Williams TR11.7 pts · 9.1 reb · 0.8 ast Score 68
LouisvilleBetterMemphis
LOU offense15th of 366 · +9.3
LOUSmall
MEM defense116th of 366 · -1.5
LOU defense16th of 366 · +6.2
Even
MEM offense62nd of 366 · +2.6
Backcourt+9.1 · 3 players
LOUBig
Backcourt+4.5 · 3 players
Frontcourt+9.2 · 2 players
LOUBig
Frontcourt+4.1 · 2 players
Bench+4.1 · 5 players
Even
Bench+4.4 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestLOU betterMEM betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Louisville
Guards
J. Shelstad35 min · TRS. Trimble33 min · TRD. Montgomery31 min · TRA. Wooley23 minK. Knox22 min · TRW. Hanke1 min
Forwards
F. Bidunga32 min · TRL. Wells31 min · TRA. Folgueiras21 min · TRB. ZhangNew
Centers
G. Dynes12 min · TRO. EkezieNew
Memphis
Guards
L. Almodovar28 min · TRB. Cummings26 min · TRJ. Reid26 min · TRJ. Thedford20 minJ. Holloway13 min · TRP. PoundsNew
Forwards
T. Weeks34 min · TRC. Williams33 min · TRR. Vavers25 min · TRJ. Deng13 min · TRM. Logue11 min · TRW. Whorton9 min
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
LOUMEM
Scoring
84.2 #18Points per game75.2 #158
1.18 #29Points per possession1.04 #264
71.0 #77Pace (possessions)71.9 #37
Shooting
56.5 #14Effective FG%48.7 #298
36.0 #583-point %31.6 #303
52.9 #43-point attempt rate33.7 #305
33.1 #236Free throw rate34.7 #190
Possessions
16.8 #184Turnover rate18.9 #316
32.8 #93Offensive rebound rate35.3 #41
17.1 #23Assists per game13.3 #193
Defense
72.5 #119Points allowed76.6 #234
1.02 #49Points allowed per possession1.07 #124
48.7 #54Opponent effective FG%48.7 #55
32.3 #76Opponent 3-point %30.6 #22
16.7 #172Turnovers forced18.6 #69
72.5 #50Defensive rebound rate64.3 #350
6.8 #148Steals per game8.4 #19
3.3 #179Blocks per game4.3 #49
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Louisville

24-11 in 2025-26 overall · 12-8 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Michigan St69–77
  • Wvs South Florida83–79
  • Lvs Miami73–78
  • Wvs SMU62–58
  • W@ Miami92–89

A week or more of rest.

Memphis

13-19 in 2025-26 overall · 8-11 in conference · American Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Tulane69–81
  • W@ Tulane96–95
  • Lvs South Florida89–96
  • L@ East Carolina68–84
  • Lvs Wichita St82–88

A week or more of rest.