Baylor Bears at Memphis Tigers: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Dec 6, 4:30 PM ETFedExForum · at Memphis

#29BAYBaylor71final

Final

#76MEMMemphis78▲ winner

Closing lineBAY -3.5✓ MEM covered by 10.5

Closing total158.5Under by 9.5

Season records: Baylor and Memphis
BAY	This season	MEM
6-1	Record	3-4
3-4	ATS	6-1
6-1	O/U	3-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: BAY 84–79 MEM · ✗ BAY (68%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
BAY	34	37	71
MEM	37	41	78

1st half: BAY 34, MEM 37 (MEM by 3). The model had BAY by 3.4 and a total of 75.9 (actual 71).

Team stats

BAY		MEM
22-64 34%	Field goals	28-68 41%
10-28 36%	3-pointers	3-16 19%
17-25 68%	Free throws	19-25 76%
44 18 off	Rebounds	43 18 off
12	Assists	12
7	Steals	9
5	Blocks	5
13	Turnovers	9
20	Fouls	18
22	Points in paint	46
14	Fast-break points	15

Players

BAY	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Tounde Yessoufou G	34	22	5	0	8-15	4-8
Cameron Carr G	32	13	10	2	3-15	2-9
Michael Rataj G	30	4	4	2	1-5	0-1
Obi Agbim G	29	8	2	2	3-10	2-6
Dan Skillings Jr. G	24	9	9	2	2-10	0-2
Bench
Caden Powell C	28	7	9	0	3-4	0-0
Isaac Williams IV G	23	8	1	4	2-5	2-2

Did not play: Juslin Bodo Bodo, Andre Iguodala II, Will Kuykendall, James Goodis, Drew Perry, Mayo Soyoye, Maikcol Perez, JJ White

MEM	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Dug McDaniel G	39	11	2	7	4-12	1-2
Zach Davis G	33	23	13	1	7-14	1-3
Simon Majok C	24	4	6	0	2-6	0-1
Quante Berry G	21	3	2	1	0-6	0-3
William Whorton F	7	0	1	0	0-2	0-0
Bench
Aaron Bradshaw F	25	17	7	0	7-12	0-1
Sincere Parker G	24	10	3	3	3-8	1-4
Ashton Hardaway F	15	6	2	0	3-6	0-2
Tariq Ingraham F	10	4	1	0	2-2	0-0
Thierno Sylla C	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Arop Arop, Hasan Abdul Hakim, Curtis Givens III, Mason Matthews, Julius Thedford

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	BAY -3.5	BAY -5.4	BAY +1.9	L MEM covered
Total	158.5	162.3	Over 3.8	L Under
Projected score	—	BAY 83.9 · MEM 78.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	BAY -3.4	MEM -3.0
1H total	75.9	71
1H projected score	BAY 39.7 · MEM 36.3	BAY 34 · MEM 37

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BAY LWLWL	3-4	43%	—	3-3
MEM LWWWW	6-1	86%	3-1	3-0

Venue/role: BAY away, as favorite; MEM home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
BAY OOOOO	6-1	86%	6-1
MEM OUUUO	3-4	43%	3-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BAYlast 7	6-1 86%	3-4 43%	6-1 86%
MEMlast 7	3-4 43%	6-1 86%	3-4 43%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Baylor

7 games played

Straight up

6-1

86% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg −3.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

6-1

86% overs · avg +17.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-186%

W W W W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-443%

L W L W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

6-186%

O U O O O O O

5 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsRGV	W 96-81	-24.5	L −9.5	154.5	O 177
Nov 9	vsWASH	W 78-69	-6.5	W +2.5	156.5	U 147
Nov 14	vsTAR	W 94-81	-23.5	L −10.5	149.5	O 175
Nov 24	vsCREI	W 81-74	-3.5	W +3.5	154.5	O 155
Nov 25	vsSJU	L 81-96	+5.5	L −9.5	159.5	O 177
Nov 26	vsSDSU	W 91-81	-2.5	W +7.5	148.5	O 172
Dec 2	vsSAC	W 110-88	-29.5	L −7.5	158.5	O 198

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

RGV

W 96-81

−9.5

WASH

W 78-69

+2.5

TAR

W 94-81

−10.5

CREI

W 81-74

+3.5

SJU

L 81-96

−9.5

SDSU

W 91-81

+7.5

SAC

W 110-88

−7.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg −3.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

RGV

W 96-81

+22.5

WASH

W 78-69

−9.5

TAR

W 94-81

+25.5

CREI

W 81-74

+0.5

SJU

L 81-96

+17.5

SDSU

W 91-81

+23.5

SAC

W 110-88

+39.5

over 6under 1avg +17.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Memphis

7 games played

Straight up

3-4

43% wins

Against the spread

6-1

86% covers · avg −0.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-4

43% overs · avg −6.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-443%

W L L L L W W

2 straight wins2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

6-186%

W W L W W W W

4 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-443%

U O O U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	vsSF	W 76-70	-2.5	W +3.5	157.5	U 146
Nov 11	@MISS	L 77-83	+9.5	W +3.5	152.5	O 160
Nov 16	vsUNLV	L 78-92	-9.5	L −23.5	163.5	O 170
Nov 20	vsPUR	L 71-80	+14.5	W +5.5	156.5	U 151
Nov 21	vsWAKE	L 68-69	+2.5	W +1.5	160.5	U 137
Nov 26	vsSIU	W 74-58	-10.5	W +5.5	156.5	U 132
Dec 3	vsNOLA	W 86-70	-14.5	W +1.5	149.5	O 156

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 76-70

+3.5

MISS

L 77-83

+3.5

UNLV

L 78-92

−23.5

PUR

L 71-80

+5.5

WAKE

L 68-69

+1.5

SIU

W 74-58

+5.5

NOLA

W 86-70

+1.5

covered 6didn’t cover 1avg −0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 76-70

−11.5

MISS

L 77-83

+7.5

UNLV

L 78-92

+6.5

PUR

L 71-80

−5.5

WAKE

L 68-69

−23.5

SIU

W 74-58

−24.5

NOLA

W 86-70

+6.5

over 3under 4avg −6.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Baylor Bears at Memphis Tigers

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Baylor

Memphis

Baylor

Memphis