Southern Illinois Salukis at Memphis Tigers: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Nov 26, 8:00 PM ETFedExForum · at Memphis

Final

#76MEMMemphis74▲ winner

Closing lineMEM -10.5✓ MEM covered by 5.5

Closing total156.5Under by 24.5

Season records: S Illinois and Memphis
SIU	This season	MEM
2-3	Record	1-4
3-2	ATS	4-1
3-2	O/U	2-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: SIU 74–83 MEM · ✓ MEM (78%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
SIU	29	29	58
MEM	42	32	74

1st half: SIU 29, MEM 42 (MEM by 13). The model had MEM by 5.2 and a total of 73.8 (actual 71).

Team stats

SIU		MEM
18-58 31%	Field goals	25-58 43%
2-15 13%	3-pointers	8-22 36%
20-33 61%	Free throws	16-20 80%
40 17 off	Rebounds	40 12 off
9	Assists	14
8	Steals	11
4	Blocks	5
13	Turnovers	15
19	Fouls	25
28	Points in paint	30
6	Fast-break points	4

Players

SIU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Quel'Ron House G	29	7	1	1	3-13	0-2
Prince Aligbe F	26	8	7	0	2-9	0-1
Rolyns Aligbe F	22	9	7	1	4-6	0-0
Damien Mayo Jr. G	19	5	2	1	2-4	1-2
Drew Steffe G	17	5	0	1	1-5	0-3
Bench
Isaiah Stafford G	24	4	4	2	1-6	1-5
Davion Sykes G	22	8	7	2	3-9	0-0
Jalen Haynes G	20	10	2	0	2-4	0-2
Jorge Moreno F	13	2	3	1	0-2	0-0
Jaheem Webber C	3	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Max Pikaar F	3	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Caden Hawkins G	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Daniel Pauliukonis, Luke Walsh

MEM	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Dug McDaniel G	33	15	1	5	6-14	2-5
Zach Davis G	19	5	6	2	2-5	1-3
Ashton Hardaway F	18	0	4	3	0-3	0-2
Simon Majok C	14	0	1	1	0-0	0-0
Thierno Sylla C	11	4	1	0	2-2	0-0
Bench
Julius Thedford G	24	15	6	0	5-8	2-4
Hasan Abdul Hakim G	21	4	3	2	2-6	0-2
Sincere Parker G	18	7	0	1	2-9	1-4
Aaron Bradshaw F	17	14	4	0	2-4	0-0
Quante Berry G	11	8	2	0	3-4	2-2
William Whorton F	7	2	0	0	1-1	0-0
Tariq Ingraham F	5	0	2	0	0-2	0-0
Arop Arop F	1	0	1	0	0-0	0-0
Mason Matthews F	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Curtis Givens III

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	MEM -10.5	MEM -8.8	SIU +1.7	L MEM covered
Total	156.5	157.6	Over 1.1	L Under
Projected score	—	SIU 74.4 · MEM 83.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	MEM -5.2	MEM -13.0
1H total	73.8	71
1H projected score	SIU 34.3 · MEM 39.5	SIU 29 · MEM 42

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SIU WWLWL	3-2	60%	1-1	1-2
MEM WWLWW	4-1	80%	1-1	1-1

Venue/role: SIU away, as underdog; MEM home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
SIU OOOUU	3-2	60%	2-3
MEM UOOUU	2-3	40%	1-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SIUlast 5	2-3 40%	3-2 60%	3-2 60%
MEMlast 5	1-4 20%	4-1 80%	2-3 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

S Illinois

5 games played

Straight up

2-3

40% wins

Against the spread

3-2

60% covers · avg +3.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-2

60% overs · avg +10.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-340%

W L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-260%

W W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-260%

O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	vsKC	W 101-78	-12.5	W +10.5	141.5	O 179
Nov 12	@NEV	L 81-86	+11.5	W +6.5	152.5	O 167
Nov 17	@NDSU	L 85-92	+1.5	L −5.5	153.5	O 177
Nov 23	vsDEL	W 79-59	-8.5	W +11.5	153.5	U 138
Nov 24	vsUAB	L 73-81	+2.5	L −5.5	161.5	U 154

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 101-78

+10.5

NEV

L 81-86

+6.5

NDSU

L 85-92

−5.5

DEL

W 79-59

+11.5

UAB

L 73-81

−5.5

covered 3didn’t cover 2avg +3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 101-78

+37.5

NEV

L 81-86

+14.5

NDSU

L 85-92

+23.5

DEL

W 79-59

−15.5

UAB

L 73-81

−7.5

over 3under 2avg +10.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Memphis

5 games played

Straight up

1-4

20% wins

Against the spread

4-1

80% covers · avg −1.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-3

40% overs · avg −5.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-420%

W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-180%

W W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-340%

U O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	vsSF	W 76-70	-2.5	W +3.5	157.5	U 146
Nov 11	@MISS	L 77-83	+9.5	W +3.5	152.5	O 160
Nov 16	vsUNLV	L 78-92	-9.5	L −23.5	163.5	O 170
Nov 20	vsPUR	L 71-80	+14.5	W +5.5	156.5	U 151
Nov 21	vsWAKE	L 68-69	+2.5	W +1.5	160.5	U 137

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 76-70

+3.5

MISS

L 77-83

+3.5

UNLV

L 78-92

−23.5

PUR

L 71-80

+5.5

WAKE

L 68-69

+1.5

covered 4didn’t cover 1avg −1.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 76-70

−11.5

MISS

L 77-83

+7.5

UNLV

L 78-92

+6.5

PUR

L 71-80

−5.5

WAKE

L 68-69

−23.5

over 2under 3avg −5.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Southern Illinois Salukis at Memphis Tigers

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

S Illinois

Memphis

S Illinois

Memphis