Sacramento State Hornets at Baylor Bears: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Dec 2, 8:00 PM ETFoster Pavilion · at Baylor

Final

#29BAYBaylor110▲ winner

Closing lineBAY -29.5✓ SAC covered by 7.5

Closing total158.5Over by 39.5

Season records: Sacramento St and Baylor
SAC	This season	BAY
1-5	Record	5-1
2-4	ATS	3-3
2-4	O/U	5-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: SAC 65–91 BAY · ✓ BAY (99%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
SAC	47	41	88
BAY	52	58	110

1st half: SAC 47, BAY 52 (BAY by 5). The model had BAY by 15.9 and a total of 73.1 (actual 99).

Team stats

SAC		BAY
26-68 38%	Field goals	38-63 60%
10-32 31%	3-pointers	6-22 27%
26-30 87%	Free throws	28-37 76%
30 19 off	Rebounds	40 17 off
12	Assists	14
9	Steals	9
0	Blocks	1
13	Turnovers	12
28	Fouls	23
26	Points in paint	60
17	Fast-break points	21

Players

SAC	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Mikey Williams G	35	21	3	2	5-19	1-7
Prophet Johnson G	33	21	7	4	6-15	2-7
Mark Lavrenov F	32	10	9	0	3-6	0-0
Jahni Summers G	22	12	2	1	4-7	4-6
Shaqir O'Neal F	14	6	2	0	2-5	1-3
Bench
Arman Madi G	24	4	2	2	2-4	0-1
Brandon Gardner F	11	2	0	0	1-1	0-0
Jayden Teat G	9	3	0	1	1-5	1-5
Taj Glover G	8	5	1	1	1-3	0-1
Romari Robinson G	5	4	0	1	1-2	1-2
Jeremiah Nyarko F	5	0	2	0	0-1	0-0
Isaiah Bronson G	2	0	1	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Zach Anderson, Davis Ambuehl, Bear Cherry

BAY	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Dan Skillings Jr. G	33	12	14	4	4-10	0-4
Michael Rataj G	31	18	10	4	6-7	2-2
Obi Agbim G	30	10	0	2	2-6	2-5
Cameron Carr G	30	25	4	0	10-16	2-7
Tounde Yessoufou G	28	27	6	1	11-15	0-1
Bench
Isaac Williams IV G	22	11	1	2	4-7	0-2
Caden Powell C	21	0	4	1	0-0	0-0
Will Kuykendall G	3	4	0	0	1-1	0-0
Drew Perry G	2	3	0	0	0-1	0-1

Did not play: JJ White, Maikcol Perez, Mayo Soyoye, Andre Iguodala II, Juslin Bodo Bodo, James Goodis

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	BAY -29.5	BAY -26.6	SAC +2.9	W SAC covered
Total	158.5	156.2	Under 2.3	L Over
Projected score	—	SAC 64.8 · BAY 91.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	BAY -15.9	BAY -5.0
1H total	73.1	99
1H projected score	SAC 28.6 · BAY 44.5	SAC 47 · BAY 52

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SAC WLLLL	2-4	33%	1-3	2-3
BAY WLWLW	3-3	50%	1-2	3-2

Venue/role: SAC away, as underdog; BAY home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
SAC UUUOU	2-4	33%	1-5
BAY UOOOO	5-1	83%	5-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SAClast 6	1-5 17%	2-4 33%	2-4 33%
BAYlast 6	5-1 83%	3-3 50%	5-1 83%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Sacramento St

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −1.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −8.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L L W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-433%

W W L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

O U U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 11	vsUCSB	L 87-92	+7.5	W +2.5	161.5	O 179
Nov 14	@UCD	L 73-77	+4.5	W +0.5	151.5	U 150
Nov 16	vsPRES	W 64-62	-6.5	L −4.5	150.5	U 126
Nov 18	@UCLA	L 48-79	+27.5	L −3.5	146.5	U 127
Nov 21	@CAL	L 67-91	+21.5	L −2.5	154.5	O 158
Nov 29	@PAC	L 54-68	+10.5	L −3.5	146.5	U 122

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UCSB

L 87-92

+2.5

UCD

L 73-77

+0.5

PRES

W 64-62

−4.5

UCLA

L 48-79

−3.5

CAL

L 67-91

−2.5

PAC

L 54-68

−3.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UCSB

L 87-92

+17.5

UCD

L 73-77

−1.5

PRES

W 64-62

−24.5

UCLA

L 48-79

−19.5

CAL

L 67-91

+3.5

PAC

L 54-68

−24.5

over 2under 4avg −8.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Baylor

6 games played

Straight up

5-1

83% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −2.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-1

83% overs · avg +13.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-183%

W W W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-350%

L W L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

5-183%

O U O O O O

4 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsRGV	W 96-81	-24.5	L −9.5	154.5	O 177
Nov 9	vsWASH	W 78-69	-6.5	W +2.5	156.5	U 147
Nov 14	vsTAR	W 94-81	-23.5	L −10.5	149.5	O 175
Nov 24	vsCREI	W 81-74	-3.5	W +3.5	154.5	O 155
Nov 25	vsSJU	L 81-96	+5.5	L −9.5	159.5	O 177
Nov 26	vsSDSU	W 91-81	-2.5	W +7.5	148.5	O 172

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

RGV

W 96-81

−9.5

WASH

W 78-69

+2.5

TAR

W 94-81

−10.5

CREI

W 81-74

+3.5

SJU

L 81-96

−9.5

SDSU

W 91-81

+7.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −2.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

RGV

W 96-81

+22.5

WASH

W 78-69

−9.5

TAR

W 94-81

+25.5

CREI

W 81-74

+0.5

SJU

L 81-96

+17.5

SDSU

W 91-81

+23.5

over 5under 1avg +13.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Sacramento St @ Baylor

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Sacramento St

Baylor

Sacramento St

Baylor