Valparaiso Beacons at Marquette Golden Eagles: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Dec 2, 8:00 PM ETFiserv Forum · at Marquette

Final

#42MARQMarquette75▲ winner

Closing lineMARQ -17.5✓ VAL covered by 14.5

Closing total146.5Over by 0.5

Season records: Valparaiso and Marquette
VAL	This season	MARQ
5-2	Record	4-4
4-3	ATS	3-5
2-5	O/U	4-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: VAL 66–82 MARQ · ✓ MARQ (92%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	OT	T
VAL	27	38	7	72
MARQ	23	42	10	75

1st half: VAL 27, MARQ 23 (VAL by 4). The model had MARQ by 9.7 and a total of 69.5 (actual 50).

Team stats

VAL		MARQ
28-62 45%	Field goals	21-60 35%
8-26 31%	3-pointers	6-21 29%
8-12 67%	Free throws	27-32 84%
40 11 off	Rebounds	38 13 off
14	Assists	12
6	Steals	9
3	Blocks	3
21	Turnovers	14
23	Fouls	17
22	Points in paint	28
3	Fast-break points	33

Players

VAL	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Brody Whitaker G	36	9	3	2	4-12	1-5
Shon Tupuola F	32	2	8	0	1-1	0-0
Isaiah Barnes G	29	8	1	1	3-6	1-2
JT Pettigrew F	27	16	8	1	7-11	0-3
Rakim Chaney G	21	13	2	2	5-7	3-5
Bench
Mark Brown Jr. G	26	3	3	4	1-10	1-7
Owen Dease F	25	17	6	2	5-6	2-2
Tucker Tornatta F	19	4	3	1	2-4	0-0
Justus McNair G	6	0	0	1	0-3	0-2
Carter Hopoi F	4	0	0	0	0-2	0-0

Did not play: Joe Vick, Sader Servilus, Kyonte Thomas, Kobe Walker, Camden Webster, Nick Lombardi, Jayden Watson

MARQ	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Chase Ross G	41	16	5	3	4-11	1-4
Ben Gold F	38	17	7	0	5-8	3-6
Nigel James Jr. G	36	21	4	5	7-16	1-2
Caedin Hamilton F	27	2	10	2	1-5	0-0
Zaide Lowery G	15	0	1	0	0-7	0-2
Bench
Adrien Stevens G	29	9	3	1	3-3	1-1
Royce Parham F	18	6	4	0	1-5	0-3
Tre Norman G	9	2	1	1	0-2	0-1
Michael Phillips II SF	5	0	0	0	0-2	0-2
Joshua Clark F	4	2	0	0	0-1	0-0
Damarius Owens SF	3	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Sean Jones, Jonah Lucas, Casey O'Malley, Braeden Brenn, Sheek Pearson, Ian Miletic

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	MARQ -17.5	MARQ -16.4	VAL +1.1	W VAL covered
Total	146.5	148.4	Over 1.9	W Over
Projected score	—	VAL 66 · MARQ 82.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	MARQ -9.7	VAL -4.0
1H total	69.5	50
1H projected score	VAL 29.9 · MARQ 39.6	VAL 27 · MARQ 23

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
VAL WWWLW	4-3	57%	1-1	1-1
MARQ WLLLW	3-5	38%	2-4	2-4

Venue/role: VAL away, as underdog; MARQ home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
VAL UUOUU	2-5	29%	5-2
MARQ UOUOU	4-4	50%	4-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
VALlast 7	5-2 71%	4-3 57%	2-5 29%
MARQlast 8	4-4 50%	3-5 38%	4-4 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Valparaiso

7 games played

Straight up

5-2

71% wins

Against the spread

4-3

57% covers · avg +2.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-5

29% overs · avg −11.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-271%

W L W W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

4-357%

L L W W W L W

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-529%

U O U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsEIU	W 66-63	-5.5	L −2.5	144.5	U 129
Nov 7	@UK	L 59-107	+32.5	L −15.5	157.5	O 166
Nov 12	vsNICH	W 68-63	-2.5	W +2.5	144.5	U 131
Nov 16	vsBRY	W 68-50	-6.5	W +11.5	143.5	U 118
Nov 19	@CLE	W 90-75	+2.5	W +17.5	158.5	O 165
Nov 26	vsUSI	L 56-64	-9.5	L −17.5	150.5	U 120
Nov 29	vsWMU	W 84-55	-4.5	W +24.5	146.5	U 139

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

EIU

W 66-63

−2.5

L 59-107

−15.5

NICH

W 68-63

+2.5

BRY

W 68-50

+11.5

CLE

W 90-75

+17.5

USI

L 56-64

−17.5

WMU

W 84-55

+24.5

covered 4didn’t cover 3avg +2.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

EIU

W 66-63

−15.5

L 59-107

+8.5

NICH

W 68-63

−13.5

BRY

W 68-50

−25.5

CLE

W 90-75

+6.5

USI

L 56-64

−30.5

WMU

W 84-55

−7.5

over 2under 5avg −11.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Marquette

8 games played

Straight up

4-4

50% wins

Against the spread

3-5

38% covers · avg −5.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-4

50% overs · avg +3 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-450%

W W L W L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-538%

W L L W L L L W

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-450%

U O O U O U O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsUALB	W 80-53	-24.5	W +2.5	149.5	U 133
Nov 5	vsSOU	W 100-82	-24.5	L −6.5	155.5	O 182
Nov 9	vsIU	L 77-100	+3.5	L −19.5	156.5	O 177
Nov 12	vsLR	W 89-49	-21.5	W +18.5	155.5	U 138
Nov 15	vsMD	L 82-89	-8.5	L −15.5	146.5	O 171
Nov 19	vsDAY	L 71-77	-6.5	L −12.5	151.5	U 148
Nov 22	vsCMU	W 85-71	-25.5	L −11.5	152.5	O 156
Nov 28	vsOU	L 74-75	+1.5	W +0.5	162.5	U 149

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UALB

W 80-53

+2.5

SOU

W 100-82

−6.5

L 77-100

−19.5

W 89-49

+18.5

L 82-89

−15.5

DAY

L 71-77

−12.5

CMU

W 85-71

−11.5

L 74-75

+0.5

covered 3didn’t cover 5avg −5.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UALB

W 80-53

−16.5

SOU

W 100-82

+26.5

L 77-100

+20.5

W 89-49

−17.5

L 82-89

+24.5

DAY

L 71-77

−3.5

CMU

W 85-71

+3.5

L 74-75

−13.5

over 4under 4avg +3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Valparaiso Beacons at Marquette Golden Eagles

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Valparaiso

Marquette

Valparaiso

Marquette