Western Michigan Broncos at Valparaiso Beacons: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 29, 3:00 PM ETAthletics-Recreation Center · at Valparaiso

Final

#176VALValparaiso84▲ winner

Closing lineVAL -4.5✓ VAL covered by 24.5

Closing total146.5Under by 7.5

Season records: W Michigan and Valparaiso
WMU	This season	VAL
3-3	Record	4-2
4-2	ATS	3-3
2-4	O/U	2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: WMU 73–75 VAL · ✓ VAL (59%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
WMU	17	38	55
VAL	37	47	84

1st half: WMU 17, VAL 37 (VAL by 20). The model had VAL by 1.4 and a total of 69.0 (actual 54).

Team stats

WMU		VAL
21-55 38%	Field goals	25-55 45%
6-17 35%	3-pointers	11-24 46%
7-12 58%	Free throws	23-26 88%
29 11 off	Rebounds	37 13 off
11	Assists	14
3	Steals	9
1	Blocks	8
16	Turnovers	10
19	Fouls	15
24	Points in paint	18
1	Fast-break points	1

Players

WMU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jalen Griffith G	33	9	1	9	3-12	0-5
EJ Ryans G	23	7	1	0	3-7	1-2
Max Burton F	22	8	2	0	4-8	0-0
Jayden Brewer G	19	2	4	0	0-2	0-0
Brady Swartz G	13	6	1	0	2-3	2-2
Bench
Trey Lewis G	18	13	1	0	5-8	3-6
Michael Sulaka F	16	3	2	0	1-1	0-0
Sharod Barnes G	16	2	2	2	1-4	0-0
Hudson Ward F	15	2	6	0	1-4	0-2
Declan Peterson C	14	3	0	0	1-5	0-0
Carson Vis G	11	0	0	0	0-1	0-0

Did not play: Justice Williams, Camden Thompson, Nicholas Errica, Junior Sileu

VAL	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Brody Whitaker G	28	14	4	2	4-8	2-4
Shon Tupuola F	25	2	9	2	1-5	0-0
Isaiah Barnes G	22	10	2	3	3-5	1-3
JT Pettigrew F	21	9	5	0	2-9	0-1
Rakim Chaney G	16	2	0	3	1-2	0-1
Bench
Mark Brown Jr. G	21	15	4	2	4-7	3-5
Carter Hopoi F	18	4	2	2	1-1	1-1
Owen Dease F	17	18	0	0	7-11	4-7
Tucker Tornatta F	14	8	4	0	1-3	0-0
Sader Servilus G	12	0	1	0	0-1	0-1
Kyonte Thomas G	3	2	0	0	1-2	0-0
Camden Webster G	1	0	1	0	0-1	0-1
Nick Lombardi G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Joe Vick G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Kobe Walker, Jayden Watson, Justus McNair

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	VAL -4.5	VAL -2.5	WMU +2.0	L VAL covered
Total	146.5	147.4	Over 0.9	L Under
Projected score	—	WMU 72.5 · VAL 74.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	VAL -1.4	VAL -20.0
1H total	69.0	54
1H projected score	WMU 33.8 · VAL 35.2	WMU 17 · VAL 37

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WMU WWLLW	4-2	67%	1-2	2-2
VAL LWWWL	3-3	50%	2-2	2-2

Venue/role: WMU away, as underdog; VAL home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
WMU OUUUU	2-4	33%	3-3
VAL OUUOU	2-4	33%	4-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WMUlast 6	3-3 50%	4-2 67%	2-4 33%
VALlast 6	4-2 67%	3-3 50%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

WMU 0–3 VALVAL leads · 3 games since 2021-22 · VAL has won the last 3 meetings · WMU 0-3 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 20, 2024-25	VAL 76 @ WMU 73	WMU -1.5	VAL W
Nov 13, 2022-23	WMU 65 @ VAL 81	VAL -4.5	VAL W
Dec 5, 2021-22	VAL 71 @ WMU 60	WMU +6	VAL W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

W Michigan

6 games played

Straight up

3-3

50% wins

Against the spread

4-2

67% covers · avg +5.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −2.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-350%

W L W L L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

4-267%

W W W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-433%

O O U U U U

4 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsCCU	W 76-71	-2.5	W +2.5	146.5	O 147
Nov 9	@CAM	L 82-91	+9.5	W +0.5	152.5	O 173
Nov 12	vsPFW	W 83-71	+3.5	W +15.5	161.5	U 154
Nov 16	@SDAK	L 78-83	+3.5	L −1.5	172.5	U 161
Nov 20	@OSU	L 58-91	+26.5	L −6.5	159.5	U 149
Nov 23	vsMSM	W 83-60	-1.5	W +21.5	150.5	U 143

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CCU

W 76-71

+2.5

CAM

L 82-91

+0.5

PFW

W 83-71

+15.5

SDAK

L 78-83

−1.5

OSU

L 58-91

−6.5

MSM

W 83-60

+21.5

covered 4didn’t cover 2avg +5.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CCU

W 76-71

+0.5

CAM

L 82-91

+20.5

PFW

W 83-71

−7.5

SDAK

L 78-83

−11.5

OSU

L 58-91

−10.5

MSM

W 83-60

−7.5

over 2under 4avg −2.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Valparaiso

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −0.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −11.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

W L W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-350%

L L W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-433%

U O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsEIU	W 66-63	-5.5	L −2.5	144.5	U 129
Nov 7	@UK	L 59-107	+32.5	L −15.5	157.5	O 166
Nov 12	vsNICH	W 68-63	-2.5	W +2.5	144.5	U 131
Nov 16	vsBRY	W 68-50	-6.5	W +11.5	143.5	U 118
Nov 19	@CLE	W 90-75	+2.5	W +17.5	158.5	O 165
Nov 26	vsUSI	L 56-64	-9.5	L −17.5	150.5	U 120

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

EIU

W 66-63

−2.5

L 59-107

−15.5

NICH

W 68-63

+2.5

BRY

W 68-50

+11.5

CLE

W 90-75

+17.5

USI

L 56-64

−17.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

EIU

W 66-63

−15.5

L 59-107

+8.5

NICH

W 68-63

−13.5

BRY

W 68-50

−25.5

CLE

W 90-75

+6.5

USI

L 56-64

−30.5

over 2under 4avg −11.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Western Michigan Broncos at Valparaiso Beacons

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

W Michigan

Valparaiso

W Michigan

Valparaiso