Lindenwood Lions at Northern Illinois Huskies: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Dec 2, 8:00 PM ETNIU Convocation Center · at N Illinois

Final

Closing lineNIU -3.5✓ LIN covered by 38.5

Closing total147.5Over by 15.5

Season records: Lindenwood Lions and N Illinois
LIN	This season	NIU
2-4	Record	2-4
3-3	ATS	4-2
3-3	O/U	2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: LIN 74–77 NIU · ✗ NIU (61%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
LIN	52	47	99
NIU	32	32	64

1st half: LIN 52, NIU 32 (LIN by 20). The model had NIU by 1.8 and a total of 70.5 (actual 84).

Team stats

LIN		NIU
36-71 51%	Field goals	21-58 36%
7-20 35%	3-pointers	7-21 33%
20-28 71%	Free throws	15-30 50%
50 20 off	Rebounds	36 16 off
14	Assists	10
11	Steals	2
5	Blocks	3
10	Turnovers	18
22	Fouls	22
54	Points in paint	26
20	Fast-break points	6

Players

LIN	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Dontrez Williams G	32	20	5	2	8-14	2-4
Jadis Jones G	31	10	12	3	4-7	0-0
Anias Futrell G	23	15	4	1	6-14	3-6
Mekhi Cooper G	19	4	1	3	1-8	0-3
Milos Nenadic C	17	13	4	3	5-7	0-1
Bench
Clayton Jackson G	28	21	2	1	6-9	1-2
Robert Lewis F	20	11	10	0	5-8	0-0
Jeremiah Talton F	17	5	4	0	1-4	1-4
Kevin Anthony C	6	0	1	0	0-0	0-0
Todd Bieg F	4	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Tidiane d'Almeida G	3	0	0	1	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Jaylon McDaniel, William Campbell, Daniel Kwon, Jalen Bouknight

NIU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Dylan Ducommun G	29	2	3	4	1-7	0-2
Makhai Valentine G	27	17	4	0	5-8	3-5
Gustav Winther F	25	15	4	2	7-11	0-0
Daemar Kelly G	21	13	2	0	3-9	3-6
Taj Walters G	17	0	3	0	0-3	0-2
Bench
Gianni Cobb G	24	6	5	3	2-5	0-1
Jaylen Wharton F	10	3	1	0	1-2	0-0
Isaiah Washington G	10	2	3	1	0-2	0-1
Ladji Kante F	9	0	1	0	0-2	0-0
Hassan Washington F	7	0	1	0	0-2	0-0
Isaiah Stewart G	6	3	0	0	1-2	1-2
Jao Ituka G	6	0	0	0	0-2	0-1
Carlos Coronado G	6	3	0	0	1-2	0-0
Max Laskey G	3	0	0	0	0-1	0-1

Did not play: Lataevyon Taylor, JJ Taylor

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	NIU -3.5	NIU -3.2	LIN +0.3	W LIN covered
Total	147.5	150.5	Over 3.0	W Over
Projected score	—	LIN 73.6 · NIU 76.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	NIU -1.8	LIN -20.0
1H total	70.5	84
1H projected score	LIN 34.3 · NIU 36.1	LIN 52 · NIU 32

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LIN LWLWW	3-3	50%	1-3	1-3
NIU WLWWL	4-2	67%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: LIN away, as underdog; NIU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
LIN OOUUU	3-3	50%	2-4
NIU OUUUU	2-4	33%	2-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LINlast 6	2-4 33%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%
NIUlast 6	2-4 33%	4-2 67%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Lindenwood Lions

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −1.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −3.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L W L L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-350%

L L W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

O O O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	@TTU	L 60-98	+29.5	L −8.5	146.5	O 158
Nov 10	@SLU	L 66-109	+24.5	L −18.5	165.5	O 175
Nov 14	vsCHSO	W 83-77	-2.5	W +3.5	155.5	O 160
Nov 16	@AAMU	L 65-74	+3.5	L −5.5	149.5	U 139
Nov 20	@IU	L 53-73	+32.5	W +12.5	155.5	U 126
Nov 24	vsKC	W 80-67	-4.5	W +8.5	152.5	U 147

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TTU

L 60-98

−8.5

SLU

L 66-109

−18.5

CHSO

W 83-77

+3.5

AAMU

L 65-74

−5.5

L 53-73

+12.5

W 80-67

+8.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TTU

L 60-98

+11.5

SLU

L 66-109

+9.5

CHSO

W 83-77

+4.5

AAMU

L 65-74

−10.5

L 53-73

−29.5

W 80-67

−5.5

over 3under 3avg −3.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

N Illinois

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

4-2

67% covers · avg +5.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −2.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

W L L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

4-267%

W W L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-433%

O O U U U U

4 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsULM	W 102-82	-7.5	W +12.5	147.5	O 184
Nov 7	@WIS	L 72-97	+28.5	W +3.5	157.5	O 169
Nov 10	@GCU	L 59-88	+22.5	L −6.5	163.5	U 147
Nov 18	@UNI	L 57-70	+19.5	W +6.5	146.5	U 127
Nov 21	@LUC	W 76-59	+13.5	W +30.5	148.5	U 135
Nov 25	@APSU	L 59-77	+6.5	L −11.5	147.5	U 136

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ULM

W 102-82

+12.5

WIS

L 72-97

+3.5

GCU

L 59-88

−6.5

UNI

L 57-70

+6.5

LUC

W 76-59

+30.5

APSU

L 59-77

−11.5

covered 4didn’t cover 2avg +5.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ULM

W 102-82

+36.5

WIS

L 72-97

+11.5

GCU

L 59-88

−16.5

UNI

L 57-70

−19.5

LUC

W 76-59

−13.5

APSU

L 59-77

−11.5

over 2under 4avg −2.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Lindenwood Lions at Northern Illinois Huskies

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Lindenwood Lions

N Illinois

Lindenwood Lions

N Illinois