KFC Yum! Center · at Louisville
Closing line
LOU -16.5✓ LOU covered by 9.5
LOU -16.5✓ LOU covered by 9.5Closing total162.5Over by 9.5
 MEM | This season | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| 4-4 | Record | 8-1 |
| 7-1 | ATS | 6-3 |
| 3-5 | O/U | 5-4 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: MEM 72–87 LOU · ✓ LOU (91%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MEM | 37 | 36 | 73 |
| LOU | 57 | 42 | 99 |
1st half: MEM 37, LOU 57 (LOU by 20). The model had LOU by 9.1 and a total of 74.0 (actual 94).
Team stats
| MEM | LOU | |
|---|---|---|
| 28-68 41% | Field goals | 30-54 56% |
| 3-11 27% | 3-pointers | 18-35 51% |
| 14-20 70% | Free throws | 21-25 84% |
| 33 16 off | Rebounds | 34 8 off |
| 8 | Assists | 24 |
| 8 | Steals | 4 |
| 2 | Blocks | 3 |
| 11 | Turnovers | 13 |
| 20 | Fouls | 19 |
| 40 | Points in paint | 24 |
| 6 | Fast-break points | 7 |
Players
| MEM | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dug McDaniel G | 33 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 5-12 | 0-0 |
| Hasan Abdul Hakim G | 31 | 18 | 4 | 0 | 7-13 | 2-3 |
| Zach Davis G | 21 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 3-7 | 1-2 |
| Simon Majok C | 19 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Aaron Bradshaw F | 19 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 4-7 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Sincere Parker G | 23 | 12 | 4 | 3 | 6-14 | 0-1 |
| Ashton Hardaway F | 20 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0-4 | 0-1 |
| Quante Berry G | 20 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 1-5 | 0-3 |
| Tariq Ingraham F | 14 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 2-4 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Arop Arop, Thierno Sylla, William Whorton, Mason Matthews, Julius Thedford, Curtis Givens III
| LOU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Conwell G | 26 | 17 | 2 | 2 | 5-11 | 3-7 |
| Mikel Brown Jr. G | 25 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 3-9 | 2-5 |
| Isaac McKneely G | 22 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0-3 | 0-3 |
| Sananda Fru F | 21 | 11 | 6 | 1 | 5-5 | 0-0 |
| J'Vonne Hadley G | 19 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 3-4 | 3-3 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Adrian Wooley G | 25 | 15 | 3 | 3 | 5-8 | 5-8 |
| Khani Rooths F | 18 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 2-4 | 2-4 |
| Kobe Rodgers G | 14 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| Kasean Pryor F | 11 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 3-4 | 3-3 |
| Vangelis Zougris F | 8 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Aly Khalifa C | 8 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Cole Sherman G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Spencer Legg G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Will Hanke G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Mouhamed Camara
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketLOU -16.5
ModelLOU -15.3
Model edgeMEM +1.2
L LOU covered
Total
Market162.5
Model158.3
Model edgeUnder 4.2
L Over
Projected score
MEM 71.5 · LOU 86.8
MEM 73 · LOU 99
Win probability
LOU 91%
1st half
Spread
LOU -9.1
LOU -20.0
Total
74.0
94 points
Projected score
MEM 32.5 · LOU 41.6
MEM 37 · LOU 57
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenLOU -14.5
2 → LOU
CloseLOU -16.5
2 pts toward LOU
Total
Open157.5
▲ 5
Close162.5
Up 5 since the open
Moneyline
MEM +1100 · LOU -2100
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened LOU -14.5 · closed LOU -16.5 · moved 2 toward LOUmodel LOU -15.5
model LOU -15.5
Opened 157.5 · closed 162.5 · moved 5 upmodel 158.5
model 158.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MEMlast 8 | 4-4 50% | 7-1 88% | 3-5 38% |
| LOUlast 9 | 8-1 89% | 6-3 67% | 5-4 56% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Memphis
8 games played
Straight up
4-4
50% wins
Against the spread
7-1
88% covers · avg +1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
3-5
38% overs · avg −6.8 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8 | vs SF | W 76-70 | -2.5 | W +3.5 | 157.5 | U 146 |
| Nov 11 | @ MISS | L 77-83 | +9.5 | W +3.5 | 152.5 | O 160 |
| Nov 16 | vs UNLV | L 78-92 | -9.5 | L −23.5 | 163.5 | O 170 |
| Nov 20 | vs PUR | L 71-80 | +14.5 | W +5.5 | 156.5 | U 151 |
| Nov 21 | vs WAKE | L 68-69 | +2.5 | W +1.5 | 160.5 | U 137 |
| Nov 26 | vs SIU | W 74-58 | -10.5 | W +5.5 | 156.5 | U 132 |
| Dec 3 | vs NOLA | W 86-70 | -14.5 | W +1.5 | 149.5 | O 156 |
| Dec 6 | vs BAY | W 78-71 | +3.5 | W +10.5 | 158.5 | U 149 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
8
vsSF
SFW 76-70
+3.5
11
@MISS
MISSL 77-83
+3.5
16
vsUNLV
UNLVL 78-92
−23.5
20
vsPUR
PURL 71-80
+5.5
21
vsWAKE
WAKEL 68-69
+1.5
26
vsSIU
SIUW 74-58
+5.5
3
vsNOLA
NOLAW 86-70
+1.5
6
vsBAY
BAYW 78-71
+10.5
covered 7didn’t cover 1avg +1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
8
vsSF
SFW 76-70
−11.5
11
@MISS
MISSL 77-83
+7.5
16
vsUNLV
UNLVL 78-92
+6.5
20
vsPUR
PURL 71-80
−5.5
21
vsWAKE
WAKEL 68-69
−23.5
26
vsSIU
SIUW 74-58
−24.5
3
vsNOLA
NOLAW 86-70
+6.5
6
vsBAY
BAYW 78-71
−9.5
over 3under 5avg −6.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Louisville
9 games played
Straight up
8-1
89% wins
Against the spread
6-3
67% covers · avg +3.7 pts vs the line
Over / Under
5-4
56% overs · avg −3.8 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs SCST | W 104-45 | -35.5 | W +23.5 | 159.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 6 | vs JKST | W 106-70 | -38.5 | L −2.5 | 165.5 | O 176 |
| Nov 11 | vs UK | W 96-88 | -5.5 | W +2.5 | 173.5 | O 184 |
| Nov 15 | vs OHIO | W 106-81 | -31.5 | L −6.5 | 174.5 | O 187 |
| Nov 21 | vs CIN | W 74-64 | -8.5 | W +1.5 | 163.5 | U 138 |
| Nov 24 | vs EMU | W 87-46 | -33.5 | W +7.5 | 162.5 | U 133 |
| Nov 26 | vs NJIT | W 104-47 | -44.5 | W +12.5 | 158.5 | U 151 |
| Dec 3 | @ ARK | L 80-89 | -1.5 | L −10.5 | 166.5 | O 169 |
| Dec 6 | vs IU | W 87-78 | -3.5 | W +5.5 | 162.5 | O 165 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsSCST
SCSTW 104-45
+23.5
6
vsJKST
JKSTW 106-70
−2.5
11
vsUK
UKW 96-88
+2.5
15
vsOHIO
OHIOW 106-81
−6.5
21
vsCIN
CINW 74-64
+1.5
24
vsEMU
EMUW 87-46
+7.5
26
vsNJIT
NJITW 104-47
+12.5
3
@ARK
ARKL 80-89
−10.5
6
vsIU
IUW 87-78
+5.5
covered 6didn’t cover 3avg +3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsSCST
SCSTW 104-45
−10.5
6
vsJKST
JKSTW 106-70
+10.5
11
vsUK
UKW 96-88
+10.5
15
vsOHIO
OHIOW 106-81
+12.5
21
vsCIN
CINW 74-64
−25.5
24
vsEMU
EMUW 87-46
−29.5
26
vsNJIT
NJITW 104-47
−7.5
3
@ARK
ARKL 80-89
+2.5
6
vsIU
IUW 87-78
+2.5
over 5under 4avg −3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Memphis
4-4 overall · 0-0 in conference · American Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Baylor78–71
- Wvs LSU N Orleans86–70
- Wvs S Illinois74–58
- Lvs Wake Forest68–69
- Lvs Purdue71–80
A week or more of rest.
Louisville
8-1 overall · 0-0 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Indiana87–78
- L@ Arkansas80–89
- Wvs NJIT104–47
- Wvs E Michigan87–46
- Wvs Cincinnati74–64
A week or more of rest.