Mercer Bears at Clemson Tigers: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Dec 13, 3:00 PM ETLittlejohn Coliseum · at Clemson

#242MERMercer63final

Final

#35CLEMClemson70▲ winner

Closing lineCLEM -22.5✓ MER covered by 15.5

Closing total152.5Under by 19.5

Season records: Mercer and Clemson
MER	This season	CLEM
5-2	Record	7-3
6-1	ATS	6-4
4-3	O/U	6-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: MER 66–87 CLEM · ✓ CLEM (97%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
MER	39	24	63
CLEM	33	37	70

1st half: MER 39, CLEM 33 (MER by 6). The model had CLEM by 12.6 and a total of 71.9 (actual 72).

Team stats

MER		CLEM
26-54 48%	Field goals	25-54 46%
6-22 27%	3-pointers	8-26 31%
5-10 50%	Free throws	12-16 75%
26 3 off	Rebounds	36 8 off
10	Assists	9
5	Steals	7
4	Blocks	1
9	Turnovers	9
15	Fouls	13
28	Points in paint	34
5	Fast-break points	8

Players

MER	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Baraka Okojie G	37	20	3	5	8-17	1-4
Brady Shoulders G	36	6	6	2	2-6	1-4
Zaire Williams G	33	15	4	0	6-14	2-8
Armani Mighty C	29	10	7	1	5-6	0-0
Quinton Perkins II G	18	6	0	0	2-7	2-5
Bench
Connor Serven F	31	4	2	2	2-3	0-1
Tristan Gross G	10	2	1	0	1-1	0-0
Kyle Cuffe Jr. G	6	0	1	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Jaydon Cole, Bendji Pierre, Pero Zubac, NJ Nganga, Braeden Carlsen, Alex Koch, Petras Padegimas, TJ Grant

CLEM	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Nick Davidson F	32	12	5	0	5-6	1-2
Dillon Hunter G	30	15	2	2	4-7	2-4
Jestin Porter G	27	10	2	2	3-8	2-5
RJ Godfrey F	25	9	8	1	4-6	0-0
Butta Johnson G	20	2	2	1	1-3	0-2
Bench
Zac Foster G	20	10	7	0	4-11	1-7
Jake Wahlin F	18	5	5	2	2-3	1-1
Carter Welling F	15	4	1	0	1-6	0-1
Chase Thompson F	8	3	1	0	1-3	1-3
Ace Buckner G	5	0	0	1	0-1	0-1

Did not play: Blake Davidson, Trent Steinour, Dallas Thomas

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	CLEM -22.5	CLEM -21.1	MER +1.4	W MER covered
Total	152.5	153.6	Over 1.1	L Under
Projected score	—	MER 66.2 · CLEM 87.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	CLEM -12.6	MER -6.0
1H total	71.9	72
1H projected score	MER 29.6 · CLEM 42.3	MER 39 · CLEM 33

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MER LWWWW	6-1	86%	3-1	3-1
CLEM LWWWW	6-4	60%	3-2	4-4

Venue/role: MER away, as underdog; CLEM home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
MER OOUOU	4-3	57%	5-2
CLEM OOOOU	6-4	60%	7-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MERlast 7	5-2 71%	6-1 86%	4-3 57%
CLEM	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Mercer

7 games played

Straight up

5-2

71% wins

Against the spread

6-1

86% covers · avg +2.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg +5.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-271%

L W L W W W W

4 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

6-186%

W W L W W W W

4 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-357%

U O O O U O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@TENN	L 61-76	+28.5	W +13.5	143.5	U 137
Nov 9	vsLIP	W 92-77	-3.5	W +11.5	157.5	O 169
Nov 15	@WIN	L 69-105	+2.5	L −33.5	162.5	O 174
Nov 22	@EKU	W 95-83	+4.5	W +16.5	163.5	O 178
Nov 26	vsAPP	W 75-67	-6.5	W +1.5	142.5	U 142
Nov 29	@ELON	W 91-84	+2.5	W +9.5	159.5	O 175
Dec 2	vsGAST	W 78-67	-10.5	W +0.5	155.5	U 145

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TENN

L 61-76

+13.5

LIP

W 92-77

+11.5

WIN

L 69-105

−33.5

EKU

W 95-83

+16.5

APP

W 75-67

+1.5

ELON

W 91-84

+9.5

GAST

W 78-67

+0.5

covered 6didn’t cover 1avg +2.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TENN

L 61-76

−6.5

LIP

W 92-77

+11.5

WIN

L 69-105

+11.5

EKU

W 95-83

+14.5

APP

W 75-67

−0.5

ELON

W 91-84

+15.5

GAST

W 78-67

−10.5

over 4under 3avg +5.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Clemson

10 games played

Straight up

7-3

70% wins

Against the spread

6-4

60% covers · avg +2.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

6-4

60% overs · avg +2.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

7-370%

W W W L W W W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

6-460%

W W L L L L W W W W

4 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

6-460%

U O U O U O O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsUNH	W 88-38	-29.5	W +20.5	146.5	U 126
Nov 7	vsGWEB	W 97-59	-29.5	W +8.5	145.5	O 156
Nov 11	vsMORE	W 83-56	-29.5	L −2.5	151.5	U 139
Nov 15	@GTWN	L 74-79	-1.5	L −6.5	142.5	O 153
Nov 17	vsUNA	W 81-61	-25.5	L −5.5	144.5	U 142
Nov 21	vsWVU	W 70-67	-4.5	L −1.5	132.5	O 137
Nov 23	vsUGA	W 97-94	-1.5	W +1.5	152.5	O 191
Nov 28	vsAAMU	W 92-56	-27.5	W +8.5	141.5	O 148
Dec 3	@ALA	L 84-90	+8.5	W +2.5	165.5	O 174
Dec 9	vsBYU	L 64-67	+4.5	W +1.5	152.5	U 131

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UNH

W 88-38

+20.5

GWEB

W 97-59

+8.5

W 83-56

−2.5

GTWN

L 74-79

−6.5

UNA

W 81-61

−5.5

WVU

W 70-67

−1.5

UGA

W 97-94

+1.5

AAMU

W 92-56

+8.5

ALA

L 84-90

+2.5

BYU

L 64-67

+1.5

covered 6didn’t cover 4avg +2.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UNH

W 88-38

−20.5

GWEB

W 97-59

+10.5

W 83-56

−12.5

GTWN

L 74-79

+10.5

UNA

W 81-61

−2.5

WVU

W 70-67

+4.5

UGA

W 97-94

+38.5

AAMU

W 92-56

+6.5

ALA

L 84-90

+8.5

BYU

L 64-67

−21.5

over 6under 4avg +2.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Mercer Bears at Clemson Tigers

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Mercer

Clemson

Mercer

Clemson