North Alabama Lions at Clemson Tigers: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Nov 17, 9:00 PM ETLittlejohn Coliseum · at Clemson

Final

#35CLEMClemson81▲ winner

Closing lineCLEM -25.5✓ UNA covered by 5.5

Closing total144.5Under by 2.5

Season records: North Alabama and Clemson
UNA	This season	CLEM
1-2	Record	3-1
1-2	ATS	2-2
2-1	O/U	2-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: UNA 65–86 CLEM · ✓ CLEM (97%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
UNA	22	39	61
CLEM	45	36	81

1st half: UNA 22, CLEM 45 (CLEM by 23). The model had CLEM by 12.6 and a total of 70.9 (actual 67).

Team stats

UNA		CLEM
22-60 37%	Field goals	27-61 44%
7-28 25%	3-pointers	11-35 31%
10-15 67%	Free throws	16-20 80%
29 13 off	Rebounds	45 19 off
11	Assists	18
10	Steals	5
4	Blocks	6
8	Turnovers	12
14	Fouls	12
28	Points in paint	32
4	Fast-break points	7

Players

UNA	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Donte Bacchus F	30	10	1	1	4-9	0-2
Kevin de Kovachich G	25	12	2	2	4-11	2-6
Dallas Howell F	22	8	5	1	3-8	2-7
Canin Jefferson G	18	5	1	1	2-4	1-3
Corneilous Williams F	15	4	4	0	2-3	0-0
Bench
Jamal Albritton C	18	3	4	0	1-1	0-0
DarKaun King F	18	7	2	0	2-7	1-3
Kedar Bodie G	15	2	4	2	1-6	0-0
Tank Washington F	15	2	4	2	1-4	0-2
Cortez Graham-Howard G	14	4	0	1	1-6	1-5
Braylon Patton G	9	4	1	1	1-1	0-0
King Walker G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Israel Jenrette, Mitchell Chaffee

CLEM	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Carter Welling F	27	13	9	0	4-6	0-1
Jake Wahlin F	25	8	10	0	3-7	2-6
Dillon Hunter G	20	6	0	2	2-7	2-4
Nick Davidson F	17	2	1	3	1-3	0-1
Ace Buckner G	16	8	7	2	2-5	1-4
Bench
RJ Godfrey F	29	16	6	3	6-8	0-1
Zac Foster G	23	14	4	6	5-10	3-7
Jestin Porter G	20	8	1	1	2-9	1-6
Butta Johnson G	9	0	2	0	0-0	0-0
Chase Thompson F	7	0	2	1	0-2	0-1
Dallas Thomas F	7	6	1	0	2-4	2-4

Did not play: Blake Davidson, Trent Steinour

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	CLEM -25.5	CLEM -21.1	UNA +4.4	W UNA covered
Total	144.5	151.3	Over 6.8	L Under
Projected score	—	UNA 65.1 · CLEM 86.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	CLEM -12.6	CLEM -23.0
1H total	70.9	67
1H projected score	UNA 29.2 · CLEM 41.7	UNA 22 · CLEM 45

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UNA WLL	1-2	33%	1-0	1-0
CLEM WWLL	2-2	50%	2-1	2-2

Venue/role: UNA away, as underdog; CLEM home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
UNA UOO	2-1	67%	1-2
CLEM UOUO	2-2	50%	3-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UNAlast 3	1-2 33%	1-2 33%	2-1 67%
CLEMlast 4	3-1 75%	2-2 50%	2-2 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

North Alabama

3 games played

Straight up

1-2

33% wins

Against the spread

1-2

33% covers · avg −2.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-1

67% overs · avg +10.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-233%

L W L

1 of 3 wonno streak

Against the spread

1-233%

W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of 3 covered

Over / Under

2-167%

U O O

2 straight overs2 of 3 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 5	@MSST	L 62-86	+24.5	W +0.5	151.5	U 148
Nov 11	vsNWST	W 87-83	-6.5	L −2.5	142.5	O 170
Nov 15	vsETSU	L 74-78	-1.5	L −5.5	145.5	O 152

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MSST

L 62-86

+0.5

NWST

W 87-83

−2.5

ETSU

L 74-78

−5.5

covered 1didn’t cover 2avg −2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MSST

L 62-86

−3.5

NWST

W 87-83

+27.5

ETSU

L 74-78

+6.5

over 2under 1avg +10.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Clemson

4 games played

Straight up

3-1

75% wins

Against the spread

2-2

50% covers · avg +5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-2

50% overs · avg −3 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-175%

W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-250%

W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-250%

U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsUNH	W 88-38	-29.5	W +20.5	146.5	U 126
Nov 7	vsGWEB	W 97-59	-29.5	W +8.5	145.5	O 156
Nov 11	vsMORE	W 83-56	-29.5	L −2.5	151.5	U 139
Nov 15	@GTWN	L 74-79	-1.5	L −6.5	142.5	O 153

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UNH

W 88-38

+20.5

GWEB

W 97-59

+8.5

W 83-56

−2.5

GTWN

L 74-79

−6.5

covered 2didn’t cover 2avg +5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UNH

W 88-38

−20.5

GWEB

W 97-59

+10.5

W 83-56

−12.5

GTWN

L 74-79

+10.5

over 2under 2avg −3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

North Alabama Lions at Clemson Tigers

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

North Alabama

Clemson

North Alabama

Clemson