Georgia State Panthers at Mercer Bears: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Dec 2, 7:00 PM ETHawkins Arena · at Mercer

#208GASTGeorgia St67final

Final

#242MERMercer78▲ winner

Closing lineMER -10.5✓ MER covered by 0.5

Closing total155.5Under by 10.5

Season records: Georgia St and Mercer
GAST	This season	MER
0-7	Record	4-2
2-5	ATS	5-1
1-6	O/U	4-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: GAST 71–81 MER · ✓ MER (81%) won

Loading the game…

Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
GAST	46	21	67
MER	46	32	78

1st half: GAST 46, MER 46 (tied). The model had MER by 5.9 and a total of 71.2 (actual 92).

Team stats

GAST		MER
25-60 42%	Field goals	24-58 41%
7-25 28%	3-pointers	7-25 28%
10-15 67%	Free throws	23-30 77%
33 9 off	Rebounds	42 13 off
9	Assists	11
7	Steals	10
4	Blocks	2
14	Turnovers	11
25	Fouls	17
26	Points in paint	32
8	Fast-break points	22

Players

GAST	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Anthony Enoh F	34	8	4	1	3-9	0-3
Micah Tucker G	33	16	1	2	5-8	1-3
Jakai Newton G	28	18	8	1	7-16	2-8
Malachi Brown G	27	3	1	3	1-4	0-0
Joah Chappelle F	24	4	9	0	2-9	0-2
Bench
Ayouba Berthe G	19	13	1	1	5-10	3-6
Trey Scott F	17	3	3	0	1-1	1-1
Chris Jones G	11	2	1	1	1-3	0-2
Christian Beam C	4	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Isaiah Sherrard F	3	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Jelani Hamilton, James Cooper, Kwame Tanic, Clash Peters, Manos Koveos

MER	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Baraka Okojie G	37	19	3	5	5-16	2-7
Brady Shoulders G	35	12	9	3	4-11	2-6
Zaire Williams G	31	4	2	1	0-5	0-4
Armani Mighty C	30	22	13	0	9-10	0-0
Quinton Perkins II G	27	15	5	0	3-7	3-4
Bench
Kyle Cuffe Jr. G	15	2	2	0	1-4	0-3
Connor Serven F	14	4	3	0	2-4	0-1
Tristan Gross G	11	0	0	2	0-1	0-0

Did not play: Braeden Carlsen, Jaydon Cole, Pero Zubac, NJ Nganga, Alex Koch, Bendji Pierre, TJ Grant, Petras Padegimas

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	MER -10.5	MER -10.0	GAST +0.5	L MER covered
Total	155.5	152.0	Under 3.5	W Under
Projected score	—	GAST 71 · MER 81

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	MER -5.9	PK
1H total	71.2	92
1H projected score	GAST 32.6 · MER 38.5	GAST 46 · MER 46

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
GAST LWLLL	2-5	29%	2-2	2-4
MER WLWWW	5-1	83%	2-0	2-0

Venue/role: GAST away, as underdog; MER home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
GAST UUOUU	1-6	14%	0-7
MER OOOUO	4-2	67%	4-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GASTlast 7	0-7 0%	2-5 29%	1-6 14%
MERlast 6	4-2 67%	5-1 83%	4-2 67%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

GAST 1–3 MERMER leads · 4 games since 2021-22 · MER has won the last 2 meetings · GAST 0-4 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 28, 2024-25	MER 71 @ GAST 68	GAST -0.5	MER W
Dec 9, 2023-24	GAST 60 @ MER 64	MER +1.5	MER W
Nov 15, 2022-23	MER 83 @ GAST 85	GAST -3.5	MER W
Dec 4, 2021-22	GAST 77 @ MER 83	MER +2	MER W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Georgia St

7 games played

Straight up

0-7

0% wins

Against the spread

2-5

29% covers · avg −7.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-6

14% overs · avg −8.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-70%

L L L L L L L

7 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-529%

L W L W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-614%

U U U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@EMU	L 49-71	+3.5	L −18.5	149.5	U 120
Nov 7	@CIN	L 64-74	+29.5	W +19.5	151.5	U 138
Nov 10	vsPRES	L 61-63	-3.5	L −5.5	141.5	U 124
Nov 17	@ASU	L 62-75	+18.5	W +5.5	145.5	U 137
Nov 21	@SDST	L 58-105	+12.5	L −34.5	143.5	O 163
Nov 25	vsSAM	L 63-78	+5.5	L −9.5	146.5	U 141
Nov 26	vsNMSU	L 58-77	+12.5	L −6.5	136.5	U 135

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

EMU

L 49-71

−18.5

CIN

L 64-74

+19.5

PRES

L 61-63

−5.5

ASU

L 62-75

+5.5

SDST

L 58-105

−34.5

SAM

L 63-78

−9.5

NMSU

L 58-77

−6.5

covered 2didn’t cover 5avg −7.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

EMU

L 49-71

−29.5

CIN

L 64-74

−13.5

PRES

L 61-63

−17.5

ASU

L 62-75

−8.5

SDST

L 58-105

+19.5

SAM

L 63-78

−5.5

NMSU

L 58-77

−1.5

over 1under 6avg −8.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Mercer

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

5-1

83% covers · avg +3.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-2

67% overs · avg +7.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

L W L W W W

3 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

5-183%

W W L W W W

3 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-267%

U O O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@TENN	L 61-76	+28.5	W +13.5	143.5	U 137
Nov 9	vsLIP	W 92-77	-3.5	W +11.5	157.5	O 169
Nov 15	@WIN	L 69-105	+2.5	L −33.5	162.5	O 174
Nov 22	@EKU	W 95-83	+4.5	W +16.5	163.5	O 178
Nov 26	vsAPP	W 75-67	-6.5	W +1.5	142.5	U 142
Nov 29	@ELON	W 91-84	+2.5	W +9.5	159.5	O 175

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TENN

L 61-76

+13.5

LIP

W 92-77

+11.5

WIN

L 69-105

−33.5

EKU

W 95-83

+16.5

APP

W 75-67

+1.5

ELON

W 91-84

+9.5

covered 5didn’t cover 1avg +3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TENN

L 61-76

−6.5

LIP

W 92-77

+11.5

WIN

L 69-105

+11.5

EKU

W 95-83

+14.5

APP

W 75-67

−0.5

ELON

W 91-84

+15.5

over 4under 2avg +7.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Georgia State Panthers at Mercer Bears

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Georgia St

Mercer

Georgia St

Mercer