Samford Bulldogs vs Georgia State Panthers: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Nov 25, 3:00 PM ETHard Rock Hotel Riviera Maya · Neutral site

#184SAMSamford78▲ winner

Final

#208GASTGeorgia St63final

Closing lineSAM -5.5✓ SAM covered by 9.5

Closing total146.5Under by 5.5

Season records: Samford and Georgia St
SAM	This season	GAST
3-4	Record	0-5
3-4	ATS	2-3
4-3	O/U	1-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: SAM 80–72 GAST · ✓ SAM (77%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
SAM	37	41	78
GAST	32	31	63

1st half: SAM 37, GAST 32 (SAM by 5). The model had SAM by 5.2 and a total of 71.0 (actual 69).

Team stats

SAM		GAST
24-50 48%	Field goals	16-62 26%
7-22 32%	3-pointers	7-33 21%
23-34 68%	Free throws	24-27 89%
42 9 off	Rebounds	36 16 off
9	Assists	8
3	Steals	8
3	Blocks	2
14	Turnovers	10
21	Fouls	28
32	Points in paint	14
2	Fast-break points	7

Players

SAM	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Cade Norris G	38	13	8	2	3-6	2-4
Isaiah Campbell-Finch G	38	12	3	3	3-10	1-6
Kam Martin G	29	11	5	1	3-6	3-5
Zion Wilburn G	26	0	3	0	0-7	0-3
Dylan Faulkner F	20	19	6	3	7-10	0-1
Bench
Jaxon Pollard F	24	16	9	0	6-9	1-3
Judson Bjornstad F	17	5	3	0	1-1	0-0
Will Shaver C	8	2	0	0	1-1	0-0

Did not play: Cooper Davenport, JD Gossett, Caleb Harrison, DaJion Humphrey, Corey Brown, Zach Lamey, Joshua Hughes, Keaton Norris, Jadin Booth

GAST	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Malachi Brown G	38	17	1	3	3-12	3-7
Micah Tucker G	32	21	4	1	6-15	0-4
Joah Chappelle F	25	5	7	0	1-9	1-5
Jakai Newton G	21	10	7	0	3-10	1-5
Christian Beam C	17	2	5	0	1-4	0-0
Bench
Ayouba Berthe G	34	5	2	1	1-7	1-7
Trey Scott F	19	3	4	2	1-4	1-4
Isaiah Sherrard F	10	0	3	0	0-1	0-1
James Cooper F	4	0	1	1	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Chris Jones, Kwame Tanic, Clash Peters, Manos Koveos, Anthony Enoh, Jelani Hamilton

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	SAM -5.5	SAM -8.3	SAM +2.8	W SAM covered
Total	146.5	151.7	Over 5.2	L Under
Projected score	—	SAM 80 · GAST 71.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	SAM -5.2	SAM -5.0
1H total	71.0	69
1H projected score	SAM 38.1 · GAST 32.9	SAM 37 · GAST 32

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
SAM WWWLL	3-4	43%	—	2-2
GAST LWLWL	2-3	40%	—	2-2

Venue/role: SAM neutral site, as favorite; GAST neutral site, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
SAM OUOUO	4-3	57%	3-4
GAST UUUUO	1-4	20%	0-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SAMlast 7	3-4 43%	3-4 43%	4-3 57%
GASTlast 5	0-5 0%	2-3 40%	1-4 20%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Samford

7 games played

Straight up

3-4

43% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg −1.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg +4.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-443%

L W W L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-443%

L L W W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-357%

O U O U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@TULN	L 72-85	+7.5	L −5.5	154.5	O 157
Nov 7	vsSCST	W 82-72	-14.5	L −4.5	154.5	U 154
Nov 12	@TXSO	W 93-90	-2.5	W +0.5	153.5	O 183
Nov 14	@ARK	L 75-79	+24.5	W +20.5	158.5	U 154
Nov 16	@CARK	W 84-77	-6.5	W +0.5	151.5	O 161
Nov 19	vsFGCU	L 62-77	-5.5	L −20.5	154.5	U 139
Nov 21	@NMSU	L 72-81	+8.5	L −0.5	145.5	O 153

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TULN

L 72-85

−5.5

SCST

W 82-72

−4.5

TXSO

W 93-90

+0.5

ARK

L 75-79

+20.5

CARK

W 84-77

+0.5

FGCU

L 62-77

−20.5

NMSU

L 72-81

−0.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg −1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TULN

L 72-85

+2.5

SCST

W 82-72

−0.5

TXSO

W 93-90

+29.5

ARK

L 75-79

−4.5

CARK

W 84-77

+9.5

FGCU

L 62-77

−15.5

NMSU

L 72-81

+7.5

over 4under 3avg +4.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Georgia St

5 games played

Straight up

0-5

0% wins

Against the spread

2-3

40% covers · avg −6.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-4

20% overs · avg −9.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-50%

L L L L L

5 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-340%

L W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-420%

U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@EMU	L 49-71	+3.5	L −18.5	149.5	U 120
Nov 7	@CIN	L 64-74	+29.5	W +19.5	151.5	U 138
Nov 10	vsPRES	L 61-63	-3.5	L −5.5	141.5	U 124
Nov 17	@ASU	L 62-75	+18.5	W +5.5	145.5	U 137
Nov 21	@SDST	L 58-105	+12.5	L −34.5	143.5	O 163

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

EMU

L 49-71

−18.5

CIN

L 64-74

+19.5

PRES

L 61-63

−5.5

ASU

L 62-75

+5.5

SDST

L 58-105

−34.5

covered 2didn’t cover 3avg −6.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

EMU

L 49-71

−29.5

CIN

L 64-74

−13.5

PRES

L 61-63

−17.5

ASU

L 62-75

−8.5

SDST

L 58-105

+19.5

over 1under 4avg −9.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Samford Bulldogs vs Georgia State Panthers

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Samford

Georgia St

Samford

Georgia St