Syracuse Orange vs Kansas Jayhawks: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Nov 25, 3:30 PM ETMGM Grand Garden Arena · Neutral site

#63SYRSyracuse60final

Final

#16KUKansas71▲ winner

Closing lineKU -4.5✓ KU covered by 6.5

Closing total144.5Under by 13.5

Season records: Syracuse and Kansas
SYR	This season	KU
4-1	Record	4-2
4-1	ATS	3-3
2-3	O/U	1-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: SYR 72–76 KU · ✓ KU (65%) won

Loading the game…

Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
SYR	25	35	60
KU	34	37	71

1st half: SYR 25, KU 34 (KU by 9). The model had KU by 2.5 and a total of 69.2 (actual 59).

Team stats

SYR		KU
20-63 32%	Field goals	24-54 44%
7-30 23%	3-pointers	5-16 31%
13-23 57%	Free throws	18-20 90%
29 11 off	Rebounds	49 13 off
10	Assists	14
7	Steals	2
4	Blocks	4
2	Turnovers	15
16	Fouls	17
26	Points in paint	34
4	Fast-break points	8

Players

SYR	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
J.J. Starling G	33	10	5	3	3-13	2-6
Naithan George G	33	5	2	4	1-4	0-2
Nate Kingz G	31	9	0	0	3-9	1-5
William Kyle III F	30	9	9	1	4-5	0-0
Sadiq White Jr. F	20	9	2	1	3-7	0-1
Bench
Tyler Betsey F	23	12	5	0	4-13	4-10
Kiyan Anthony G	18	6	3	0	2-12	0-6
Akir Souare F	9	0	2	1	0-0	0-0
Bryce Zephir G	3	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Noah Lobdell, Aaron Womack III, Donnie Freeman, Luke Fennell, Tiefing Diawara

KU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Melvin Council Jr. G	36	14	7	5	3-15	1-4
Tre White G	35	15	10	3	4-9	1-3
Flory Bidunga F	34	13	14	3	5-8	0-1
Jamari McDowell G	34	9	4	2	3-7	2-6
Bryson Tiller F	30	11	8	0	5-9	0-0
Bench
Kohl Rosario G	20	7	0	0	3-4	1-2
Elmarko Jackson G	8	2	0	1	1-1	0-0
Nginyu Ngala G	3	0	1	0	0-1	0-0

Did not play: Wilder Evers, Jayden Dawson, Justin Cross, Darryn Peterson, Will Thengvall, Samis Calderon, Paul Mbiya, Corbin Allen

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	KU -4.5	KU -4.4	SYR +0.1	L KU covered
Total	144.5	147.7	Over 3.2	L Under
Projected score	—	SYR 71.6 · KU 76

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	KU -2.5	KU -9.0
1H total	69.2	59
1H projected score	SYR 33.3 · KU 35.8	SYR 25 · KU 34

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
SYR WWWLW	4-1	80%	2-0	1-0
KU LWLLW	3-3	50%	1-1	3-1

Venue/role: SYR neutral site, as underdog; KU neutral site, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
SYR UUUOO	2-3	40%	4-1
KU OUUUU	1-5	17%	4-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SYRlast 5	4-1 80%	4-1 80%	2-3 40%
KUlast 6	4-2 67%	3-3 50%	1-5 17%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Syracuse

5 games played

Straight up

4-1

80% wins

Against the spread

4-1

80% covers · avg +8.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-3

40% overs · avg −9.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-180%

W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

4-180%

W W W L W

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-340%

U U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsBING	W 85-47	-21.5	W +16.5	153.5	U 132
Nov 8	vsDSU	W 83-43	-26.5	W +13.5	157.5	U 126
Nov 15	vsDREX	W 80-50	-11.5	W +18.5	143.5	U 130
Nov 18	vsMONM	W 78-73	-21.5	L −16.5	145.5	O 151
Nov 24	vsHOU	L 74-78	+14.5	W +10.5	140.5	O 152

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BING

W 85-47

+16.5

DSU

W 83-43

+13.5

DREX

W 80-50

+18.5

MONM

W 78-73

−16.5

HOU

L 74-78

+10.5

covered 4didn’t cover 1avg +8.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BING

W 85-47

−21.5

DSU

W 83-43

−31.5

DREX

W 80-50

−13.5

MONM

W 78-73

+5.5

HOU

L 74-78

+11.5

over 2under 3avg −9.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Kansas

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +1.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −9.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

W L W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-350%

W L W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-517%

U O U U U U

4 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsGB	W 94-51	-30.5	W +12.5	152.5	U 145
Nov 7	@UNC	L 74-87	+2.5	L −10.5	159.5	O 161
Nov 11	vsAMCC	W 77-46	-25.5	W +5.5	145.5	U 123
Nov 15	vsPRIN	W 76-57	-22.5	L −3.5	144.5	U 133
Nov 18	vsDUKE	L 66-78	+10.5	L −1.5	149.5	U 144
Nov 24	vsND	W 71-61	-5.5	W +4.5	143.5	U 132

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 94-51

+12.5

UNC

L 74-87

−10.5

AMCC

W 77-46

+5.5

PRIN

W 76-57

−3.5

DUKE

L 66-78

−1.5

W 71-61

+4.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 94-51

−7.5

UNC

L 74-87

+1.5

AMCC

W 77-46

−22.5

PRIN

W 76-57

−11.5

DUKE

L 66-78

−5.5

W 71-61

−11.5

over 1under 5avg −9.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Syracuse Orange vs Kansas Jayhawks

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Syracuse

Kansas

Syracuse

Kansas