Cornell Big Red at George Mason Patriots: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Dec 2, 7:00 PM ETEagleBank Arena · at George Mason

#179CORCornell81final

Final

#93GMUGeorge Mason99▲ winner

Closing lineGMU -10.5✓ GMU covered by 7.5

Closing total155.5Over by 24.5

Season records: Cornell and George Mason
COR	This season	GMU
4-2	Record	7-0
2-4	ATS	5-2
4-2	O/U	3-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: COR 74–85 GMU · ✓ GMU (83%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
COR	40	41	81
GMU	42	57	99

1st half: COR 40, GMU 42 (GMU by 2). The model had GMU by 6.4 and a total of 74.6 (actual 82).

Team stats

COR		GMU
28-57 49%	Field goals	34-61 56%
13-31 42%	3-pointers	10-20 50%
12-17 71%	Free throws	21-25 84%
26 8 off	Rebounds	34 10 off
20	Assists	16
5	Steals	7
3	Blocks	2
13	Turnovers	12
22	Fouls	19
30	Points in paint	46
10	Fast-break points	22

Players

COR	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Adam Hinton G	28	19	2	1	7-11	3-6
Cooper Noard G	28	13	2	2	5-14	2-8
Jacob Beccles G	23	1	3	0	0-2	0-1
Kaspar Sepp F	20	9	5	6	4-5	1-2
DJ Nix F	17	2	0	0	1-4	0-2
Bench
Jake Fiegen G	20	18	2	2	6-11	4-7
Anthony Nimani G	17	4	3	3	1-2	0-0
Josh Baldwin G	15	9	3	2	2-3	1-1
Corbin Zentner G	14	3	3	1	1-2	1-1
DaMaryon Fishburn G	8	0	1	2	0-1	0-1
Ian Imegwu F	4	3	1	1	1-2	1-2
Gioacchino Panzini F	3	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Mateen Rafiq G	3	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Ty Iwanonkiw, Blake Lecklitner, Ryan Burbach, Jax Abalos, Elijah Griffin, AJ Rodriguez, AJ LaBeau

GMU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Kory Mincy G	37	16	7	4	5-9	2-5
Malik Presley G	31	17	2	2	7-10	3-5
Jahari Long G	29	16	2	4	5-11	2-4
Riley Allenspach F	17	9	7	1	3-5	1-1
Dola Adebayo F	5	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Bench
Masai Troutman G	29	14	3	3	4-11	1-4
Fatt Hill G	20	11	3	2	4-7	1-1
Emmanuel Kanga F	13	10	6	0	4-5	0-0
Nick Ellington F	12	6	2	0	2-3	0-0
Stas Sivka F	7	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Ryan-Preston Mendy, Isaiah Skinn, Devin Booker, Brayden O'Connor, T.J. Prosise, Ben Woodward

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	GMU -10.5	GMU -10.9	GMU +0.4	W GMU covered
Total	155.5	159.3	Over 3.8	W Over
Projected score	—	COR 74.2 · GMU 85.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	GMU -6.4	GMU -2.0
1H total	74.6	82
1H projected score	COR 34.1 · GMU 40.5	COR 40 · GMU 42

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
COR LWLLW	2-4	33%	2-2	0-2
GMU LWWWW	5-2	71%	3-2	5-2

Venue/role: COR away, as underdog; GMU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
COR UOUOO	4-2	67%	4-2
GMU UUOUO	3-4	43%	7-0

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CORlast 6	4-2 67%	2-4 33%	4-2 67%
GMUlast 7	7-0 100%	5-2 71%	3-4 43%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

COR 0–1 GMUGMU leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · COR 0-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 15, 2023-24	COR 83 @ GMU 90	GMU -2.5	GMU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Cornell

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg +3.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-2

67% overs · avg +12.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

L L W W W W

4 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-433%

L L W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-267%

O U O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	@KENT	L 102-110	+6.5	L −1.5	164.5	O 212
Nov 9	@ILST	L 65-76	+6.5	L −4.5	164.5	U 141
Nov 13	@LAF	W 97-78	-4.5	W +14.5	160.5	O 175
Nov 18	vsARMY	W 86-73	-17.5	L −4.5	164.5	U 159
Nov 20	vsCOLG	W 95-94	-5.5	L −4.5	161.5	O 189
Nov 30	@BUCK	W 101-72	-5.5	W +23.5	159.5	O 173

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

KENT

L 102-110

−1.5

ILST

L 65-76

−4.5

LAF

W 97-78

+14.5

ARMY

W 86-73

−4.5

COLG

W 95-94

−4.5

BUCK

W 101-72

+23.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg +3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

KENT

L 102-110

+47.5

ILST

L 65-76

−23.5

LAF

W 97-78

+14.5

ARMY

W 86-73

−5.5

COLG

W 95-94

+27.5

BUCK

W 101-72

+13.5

over 4under 2avg +12.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

George Mason

7 games played

Straight up

7-0

100% wins

Against the spread

5-2

71% covers · avg +3.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-4

43% overs · avg −0.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

7-0100%

W W W W W W W

7 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

5-271%

W L L W W W W

4 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-443%

U O U U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsWOF	W 70-46	-14.5	W +9.5	140.5	U 116
Nov 7	vsWIN	W 96-90	-9.5	L −3.5	146.5	O 186
Nov 15	vsUNH	W 61-44	-24.5	L −7.5	144.5	U 105
Nov 18	vsJAX	W 79-57	-16.5	W +5.5	136.5	U 136
Nov 24	vsOHIO	W 92-69	-7.5	W +15.5	142.5	O 161
Nov 25	vsFAU	W 74-65	-4.5	W +4.5	143.5	U 139
Nov 29	vsJMU	W 82-66	-12.5	W +3.5	141.5	O 148

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WOF

W 70-46

+9.5

WIN

W 96-90

−3.5

UNH

W 61-44

−7.5

JAX

W 79-57

+5.5

OHIO

W 92-69

+15.5

FAU

W 74-65

+4.5

JMU

W 82-66

+3.5

covered 5didn’t cover 2avg +3.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WOF

W 70-46

−24.5

WIN

W 96-90

+39.5

UNH

W 61-44

−39.5

JAX

W 79-57

−0.5

OHIO

W 92-69

+18.5

FAU

W 74-65

−4.5

JMU

W 82-66

+6.5

over 3under 4avg −0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Cornell Big Red at George Mason Patriots

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Cornell

George Mason

Cornell

George Mason