George Mason Patriots vs Florida Atlantic Owls: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Nov 25, 7:30 PM ETOcean Center · Neutral site

#93GMUGeorge Mason74▲ winner

Final

#109FAUFAU65final

Closing lineGMU -4.5✓ GMU covered by 4.5

Closing total143.5Under by 4.5

Season records: George Mason and FAU
GMU	This season	FAU
5-0	Record	4-1
3-2	ATS	4-1
2-3	O/U	3-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: GMU 76–73 FAU · ✓ GMU (63%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
GMU	40	34	74
FAU	25	40	65

1st half: GMU 40, FAU 25 (GMU by 15). The model had GMU by 2.4 and a total of 69.7 (actual 65).

Team stats

GMU		FAU
25-51 49%	Field goals	25-57 44%
9-17 53%	3-pointers	6-23 26%
15-21 71%	Free throws	9-12 75%
33 10 off	Rebounds	31 12 off
11	Assists	13
4	Steals	4
1	Blocks	3
7	Turnovers	10
12	Fouls	17
26	Points in paint	38
8	Fast-break points	11

Players

GMU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Kory Mincy G	39	22	1	5	7-12	3-5
Jahari Long G	38	21	4	0	7-11	4-5
Riley Allenspach F	31	8	9	1	3-6	1-3
Malik Presley G	21	3	1	0	1-3	0-0
Dola Adebayo F	16	3	3	2	1-3	0-1
Bench
Masai Troutman G	24	5	5	3	1-7	1-3
Fatt Hill G	18	4	2	0	2-4	0-0
Nick Ellington F	13	8	1	0	3-5	0-0

Did not play: Isaiah Skinn, Ryan-Preston Mendy, Devin Booker, T.J. Prosise, Ben Woodward, Stas Sivka, Emmanuel Kanga, Brayden O'Connor

FAU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Kanaan Carlyle G	35	22	4	1	7-17	2-10
Devin Vanterpool G	34	17	9	5	6-9	3-4
Devin Williams F	28	4	4	3	2-4	0-2
Isaiah Elohim G	25	5	2	1	2-6	0-2
Xander Pintelon F	18	2	2	0	1-4	0-2
Bench
Niccolo Moretti G	18	0	1	1	0-1	0-0
Amar Amkou G	12	7	2	0	3-6	1-2
Josiah Parker F	10	2	1	0	1-3	0-1
Yohann Sissoko G	8	0	1	2	0-2	0-0
Maxim Logue F	7	4	1	0	2-3	0-0
Vincent Neugebauer C	5	2	1	0	1-2	0-0

Did not play: Lachlan Smith, Zion Sampaio, Max Langenfeld, Liam Dayco-Green

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	GMU -4.5	GMU -3.8	FAU +0.8	L GMU covered
Total	143.5	148.8	Over 5.3	L Under
Projected score	—	GMU 76.3 · FAU 72.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	GMU -2.4	GMU -15.0
1H total	69.7	65
1H projected score	GMU 36.1 · FAU 33.7	GMU 40 · FAU 25

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
GMU WLLWW	3-2	60%	1-0	3-2
FAU WWLWW	4-1	80%	2-0	0-1

Venue/role: GMU neutral site, as favorite; FAU neutral site, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
GMU UOUUO	2-3	40%	5-0
FAU OOOUU	3-2	60%	4-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GMUlast 5	5-0 100%	3-2 60%	2-3 40%
FAUlast 5	4-1 80%	4-1 80%	3-2 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

George Mason

5 games played

Straight up

5-0

100% wins

Against the spread

3-2

60% covers · avg +3.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-3

40% overs · avg −1.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-0100%

W W W W W

5 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-260%

W L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-340%

U O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsWOF	W 70-46	-14.5	W +9.5	140.5	U 116
Nov 7	vsWIN	W 96-90	-9.5	L −3.5	146.5	O 186
Nov 15	vsUNH	W 61-44	-24.5	L −7.5	144.5	U 105
Nov 18	vsJAX	W 79-57	-16.5	W +5.5	136.5	U 136
Nov 24	vsOHIO	W 92-69	-7.5	W +15.5	142.5	O 161

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WOF

W 70-46

+9.5

WIN

W 96-90

−3.5

UNH

W 61-44

−7.5

JAX

W 79-57

+5.5

OHIO

W 92-69

+15.5

covered 3didn’t cover 2avg +3.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WOF

W 70-46

−24.5

WIN

W 96-90

+39.5

UNH

W 61-44

−39.5

JAX

W 79-57

−0.5

OHIO

W 92-69

+18.5

over 2under 3avg −1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

FAU

5 games played

Straight up

4-1

80% wins

Against the spread

4-1

80% covers · avg +5.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-2

60% overs · avg +2.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-180%

W W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-180%

W W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-260%

O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsBC	W 83-78	-1.5	W +3.5	148.5	O 161
Nov 8	vsCOFC	W 94-77	-5.5	W +11.5	156.5	O 171
Nov 9	@LIB	L 68-88	+7.5	L −12.5	152.5	O 156
Nov 20	vsPAC	W 82-59	-7.5	W +15.5	154.5	U 141
Nov 24	vsLMU	W 76-65	-3.5	W +7.5	144.5	U 141

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 83-78

+3.5

COFC

W 94-77

+11.5

LIB

L 68-88

−12.5

PAC

W 82-59

+15.5

LMU

W 76-65

+7.5

covered 4didn’t cover 1avg +5.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 83-78

+12.5

COFC

W 94-77

+14.5

LIB

L 68-88

+3.5

PAC

W 82-59

−13.5

LMU

W 76-65

−3.5

over 3under 2avg +2.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

George Mason Patriots vs Florida Atlantic Owls

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

George Mason

FAU

George Mason

FAU