Eastern Illinois Panthers at Central Arkansas Bears: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Nov 25, 7:30 PM ETFarris Center · at C Arkansas

Final

#240CARKC Arkansas81▲ winner

Closing lineCARK -5.5✓ CARK covered by 15.5

Closing total139.5Over by 1.5

Season records: E Illinois and C Arkansas
EIU	This season	CARK
1-3	Record	1-4
3-1	ATS	1-4
1-3	O/U	2-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: EIU 69–72 CARK · ✓ CARK (60%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
EIU	26	34	60
CARK	43	38	81

1st half: EIU 26, CARK 43 (CARK by 17). The model had CARK by 1.5 and a total of 66.3 (actual 69).

Team stats

EIU		CARK
22-51 43%	Field goals	30-54 56%
5-21 24%	3-pointers	13-30 43%
11-12 92%	Free throws	8-13 62%
22 5 off	Rebounds	33 9 off
9	Assists	20
5	Steals	7
2	Blocks	2
12	Turnovers	12
9	Fouls	11
32	Points in paint	34
8	Fast-break points	12

Players

EIU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Terry McMorris F	37	11	5	1	4-7	0-0
Kooper Jacobi F	36	10	4	3	4-10	0-4
Preston Turner G	29	8	3	3	3-6	2-5
Meechie White G	25	7	5	2	2-6	0-2
Andrew Austin F	13	2	0	0	1-4	0-3
Bench
Zion Fruster G	36	21	2	0	8-15	3-6
Malik Olafioye G	16	1	1	0	0-2	0-0
Markus Blackwell G	5	0	0	0	0-1	0-1
Prince Johnson F	3	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Andre Washington, Shane Sims, Kyle Layton, JT Elder, Nazareth Fisher

CARK	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Luke Moore G	34	8	3	8	3-10	2-7
Camren Hunter G	31	19	4	2	7-10	4-6
Ty Robinson G	29	18	7	4	6-12	1-5
Cole McCormick G	23	8	1	2	3-5	1-3
Malchiah Marable F	22	5	9	0	2-4	0-0
Bench
Javion Guy-King G	16	10	1	1	4-4	2-2
Harry Beauchamp G	14	6	2	0	2-3	2-3
Truman Byrne F	14	2	3	1	1-3	0-2
Tyler Lee G	13	5	1	1	2-3	1-2
Parker Applegate G	4	0	1	1	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Rashad Bolden, Ethan Thomas, Owen Dehrmann, J.C. Shulman, R.J. Newton, Rylie Marshall, Chris Mason

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	CARK -5.5	CARK -2.8	EIU +2.7	L CARK covered
Total	139.5	141.6	Over 2.1	W Over
Projected score	—	EIU 69.4 · CARK 72.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	CARK -1.5	CARK -17.0
1H total	66.3	69
1H projected score	EIU 32.4 · CARK 33.9	EIU 26 · CARK 43

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
EIU WWWL	3-1	75%	2-1	3-1
CARK LLLLW	1-4	20%	1-1	—

Venue/role: EIU away, as underdog; CARK home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
EIU UUUO	1-3	25%	1-3
CARK UUOUO	2-3	40%	1-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
EIUlast 4	1-3 25%	3-1 75%	1-3 25%
CARKlast 5	1-4 20%	1-4 20%	2-3 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

EIU 0–1 CARKCARK leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · EIU 0-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 10, 2023-24	CARK 73 @ EIU 70	EIU -4.5	CARK W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

E Illinois

4 games played

Straight up

1-3

25% wins

Against the spread

3-1

75% covers · avg +1.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-3

25% overs · avg −8 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-325%

L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-175%

W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-325%

U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	@VAL	L 63-66	+5.5	W +2.5	144.5	U 129
Nov 7	vsNICH	W 65-57	+2.5	W +10.5	135.5	U 122
Nov 11	@ND	L 58-78	+23.5	W +3.5	143.5	U 136
Nov 14	@UK	L 53-99	+35.5	L −10.5	147.5	O 152

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

VAL

L 63-66

+2.5

NICH

W 65-57

+10.5

L 58-78

+3.5

L 53-99

−10.5

covered 3didn’t cover 1avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

VAL

L 63-66

−15.5

NICH

W 65-57

−13.5

L 58-78

−7.5

L 53-99

+4.5

over 1under 3avg −8 ptslonger = bigger margin

C Arkansas

5 games played

Straight up

1-4

20% wins

Against the spread

1-4

20% covers · avg +3.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-3

40% overs · avg −2.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-420%

L L L L W

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

1-420%

L L L L W

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-340%

U U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@UNC	L 54-94	+31.5	L −8.5	157.5	U 148
Nov 11	@ARK	L 56-93	+35.5	L −1.5	158.5	U 149
Nov 16	vsSAM	L 77-84	+6.5	L −0.5	151.5	O 161
Nov 20	@UNT	L 56-74	+16.5	L −1.5	134.5	U 130
Nov 23	vsEWU	W 92-65	+4.5	W +31.5	154.5	O 157

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UNC

L 54-94

−8.5

ARK

L 56-93

−1.5

SAM

L 77-84

−0.5

UNT

L 56-74

−1.5

EWU

W 92-65

+31.5

covered 1didn’t cover 4avg +3.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UNC

L 54-94

−9.5

ARK

L 56-93

−9.5

SAM

L 77-84

+9.5

UNT

L 56-74

−4.5

EWU

W 92-65

+2.5

over 2under 3avg −2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Eastern Illinois Panthers at Central Arkansas Bears

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

E Illinois

C Arkansas

E Illinois

C Arkansas