Alabama A&M Bulldogs at Clemson Tigers: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 28, 7:00 PM ETLittlejohn Coliseum · at Clemson

Final

#35CLEMClemson92▲ winner

Closing lineCLEM -27.5✓ CLEM covered by 8.5

Closing total141.5Over by 6.5

Season records: Alabama A&M and Clemson
AAMU	This season	CLEM
2-1	Record	6-1
2-1	ATS	3-4
1-2	O/U	4-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: AAMU 60–87 CLEM · ✓ CLEM (99%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
AAMU	22	34	56
CLEM	52	40	92

1st half: AAMU 22, CLEM 52 (CLEM by 30). The model had CLEM by 16.6 and a total of 68.8 (actual 74).

Team stats

AAMU		CLEM
20-54 37%	Field goals	30-55 55%
4-22 18%	3-pointers	8-23 35%
12-17 71%	Free throws	24-32 75%
23 3 off	Rebounds	44 10 off
5	Assists	18
4	Steals	5
1	Blocks	1
11	Turnovers	11
26	Fouls	17
22	Points in paint	42
4	Fast-break points	18

Players

AAMU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Lou Hutchinson III G	31	2	2	0	1-6	0-2
Kintavious Dozier G	25	10	2	0	4-10	0-1
Koron Davis G	19	4	5	1	1-5	0-1
Sami Pissis G	16	6	0	1	2-4	0-2
PJ Eason F	15	10	5	0	3-4	0-0
Bench
Angok Anyang F	22	2	1	1	1-2	0-1
James Graham III G	21	10	3	0	4-10	1-4
Peyton Daniels Sr. G	19	9	1	1	3-6	3-6
Gabe Kincy G	14	1	2	1	0-3	0-3
Bilal Abdur-Rahman G	8	2	0	0	1-2	0-0
Samuel Onu F	6	0	0	0	0-1	0-1
Tajden Davis G	4	0	1	0	0-1	0-1

Did not play: James Flippin, Jalen Carruth, Jayden Jackson, Isaiah Ramey

CLEM	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jestin Porter G	20	14	2	1	4-10	2-6
Dillon Hunter G	20	8	3	3	3-5	1-1
RJ Godfrey F	20	10	8	1	4-7	0-0
Nick Davidson F	16	6	6	2	2-5	0-1
Jake Wahlin F	13	5	2	0	2-2	1-1
Bench
Zac Foster G	22	8	1	3	2-4	1-2
Butta Johnson G	21	9	4	3	4-7	1-4
Carter Welling F	18	12	7	3	2-3	0-1
Chase Thompson F	18	7	5	1	3-4	1-2
Ace Buckner G	15	5	3	0	2-5	0-3
Dallas Thomas F	13	4	1	1	1-2	1-2
Trent Steinour F	4	4	0	0	1-1	0-0

Did not play: Blake Davidson

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	CLEM -27.5	CLEM -27.8	CLEM +0.3	W CLEM covered
Total	141.5	146.9	Over 5.4	W Over
Projected score	—	AAMU 59.5 · CLEM 87.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	CLEM -16.6	CLEM -30.0
1H total	68.8	74
1H projected score	AAMU 26.1 · CLEM 42.7	AAMU 22 · CLEM 52

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
AAMU LWW	2-1	67%	0-1	0-1
CLEM LLLLW	3-4	43%	2-2	3-4

Venue/role: AAMU away, as underdog; CLEM home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
AAMU OUU	1-2	33%	2-1
CLEM UOUOO	4-3	57%	6-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
AAMUlast 3	2-1 67%	2-1 67%	1-2 33%
CLEMlast 7	6-1 86%	3-4 43%	4-3 57%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Alabama A&M

3 games played

Straight up

2-1

67% wins

Against the spread

2-1

67% covers · avg −2.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-2

33% overs · avg −9.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-167%

L W W

2 straight wins2 of 3 won

Against the spread

2-167%

L W W

2 straight covers2 of 3 covered

Over / Under

1-233%

O U U

2 straight unders1 of 3 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 5	@IU	L 51-98	+30.5	L −16.5	147.5	O 149
Nov 13	vsCHSO	W 68-64	-1.5	W +2.5	152.5	U 132
Nov 16	vsLIN	W 74-65	-3.5	W +5.5	149.5	U 139

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

L 51-98

−16.5

CHSO

W 68-64

+2.5

LIN

W 74-65

+5.5

covered 2didn’t cover 1avg −2.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

L 51-98

+1.5

CHSO

W 68-64

−20.5

LIN

W 74-65

−10.5

over 1under 2avg −9.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Clemson

7 games played

Straight up

6-1

86% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg +2.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg +4.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-186%

W W W L W W W

3 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-443%

W W L L L L W

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-357%

U O U O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsUNH	W 88-38	-29.5	W +20.5	146.5	U 126
Nov 7	vsGWEB	W 97-59	-29.5	W +8.5	145.5	O 156
Nov 11	vsMORE	W 83-56	-29.5	L −2.5	151.5	U 139
Nov 15	@GTWN	L 74-79	-1.5	L −6.5	142.5	O 153
Nov 17	vsUNA	W 81-61	-25.5	L −5.5	144.5	U 142
Nov 21	vsWVU	W 70-67	-4.5	L −1.5	132.5	O 137
Nov 23	vsUGA	W 97-94	-1.5	W +1.5	152.5	O 191

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UNH

W 88-38

+20.5

GWEB

W 97-59

+8.5

W 83-56

−2.5

GTWN

L 74-79

−6.5

UNA

W 81-61

−5.5

WVU

W 70-67

−1.5

UGA

W 97-94

+1.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg +2.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UNH

W 88-38

−20.5

GWEB

W 97-59

+10.5

W 83-56

−12.5

GTWN

L 74-79

+10.5

UNA

W 81-61

−2.5

WVU

W 70-67

+4.5

UGA

W 97-94

+38.5

over 4under 3avg +4.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Alabama A&M @ Clemson

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Alabama A&M

Clemson

Alabama A&M

Clemson