Stanford Cardinal vs Saint Louis Billikens: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 28, 7:00 PM ETAcrisure Arena · Neutral site

#85STANStanford78▲ winner

Final

Closing lineSLU -1.5✓ STAN covered by 2.5

Closing total160.5Under by 5.5

Season records: Stanford and Saint Louis
STAN	This season	SLU
5-1	Record	6-0
3-3	ATS	4-2
3-3	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: STAN 77–82 SLU · ✗ SLU (65%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
STAN	36	42	78
SLU	47	30	77

1st half: STAN 36, SLU 47 (SLU by 11). The model had SLU by 2.4 and a total of 74.3 (actual 83).

Team stats

STAN		SLU
24-64 38%	Field goals	23-61 38%
13-27 48%	3-pointers	5-20 25%
17-24 71%	Free throws	26-28 93%
38 13 off	Rebounds	43 13 off
17	Assists	15
4	Steals	5
4	Blocks	4
10	Turnovers	11
19	Fouls	20
22	Points in paint	36
4	Fast-break points	19

Players

STAN	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Ebuka Okorie G	35	17	3	6	3-14	3-8
Chisom Okpara F	34	19	6	3	5-13	2-3
AJ Rohosy F	23	11	9	2	5-12	0-0
Aidan Cammann F	16	8	1	1	3-4	1-1
Benny Gealer G	15	3	0	2	1-3	1-2
Bench
Ryan Agarwal G	30	8	4	1	3-7	2-5
Jeremy Dent-Smith G	21	12	5	0	4-9	4-7
Oskar Giltay C	14	0	7	1	0-0	0-0
Kristers Skrinda F	5	0	0	0	0-2	0-1
Cameron Grant G	4	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Evan Stinson F	3	0	0	1	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Myles Jones, Jaylen Thompson, Ethan Kitch, Donavin Young, Anthony Batson Jr., Tallis Toure

SLU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Trey Green G	31	15	6	2	4-7	2-4
Robbie Avila C	30	12	8	3	2-8	0-2
Quentin Jones G	29	11	6	1	3-4	0-0
Dion Brown G	26	12	6	2	6-15	0-1
Amari McCottry G	26	8	6	5	3-9	0-3
Bench
Ishan Sharma F	24	12	3	1	3-9	3-8
Kellen Thames G	13	2	1	0	1-3	0-1
Paul Otieno F	13	3	4	0	1-4	0-0
Brady Dunlap F	8	2	2	1	0-2	0-1

Did not play: Dylan Warlick, Badara Diakite, Luke Laczkowski, Cam Hutson, Kalu Anya, Jax Kerr, Jaden Schertz, Isaac Holmes

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	SLU -1.5	SLU -4.3	SLU +2.8	L STAN covered
Total	160.5	158.7	Under 1.8	W Under
Projected score	—	STAN 77.2 · SLU 81.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	SLU -2.4	SLU -11.0
1H total	74.3	83
1H projected score	STAN 35.9 · SLU 38.4	STAN 36 · SLU 47

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
STAN WLWLW	3-3	50%	1-0	—
SLU LWWWL	4-2	67%	0-1	4-2

Venue/role: STAN neutral site, as underdog; SLU neutral site, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
STAN OUOUU	3-3	50%	5-1
SLU OOUUU	3-3	50%	6-0

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
STANlast 6	5-1 83%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%
SLUlast 6	6-0 100%	4-2 67%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Stanford

6 games played

Straight up

5-1

83% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −1.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg +6.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-183%

W W W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-350%

L W L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

O O U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsPRST	W 89-79	-11.5	L −1.5	144.5	O 168
Nov 8	vsMONT	W 91-68	-12.5	W +10.5	150.5	O 159
Nov 12	vsMTST	W 77-68	-14.5	L −5.5	148.5	U 145
Nov 18	vsUL	W 93-66	-20.5	W +6.5	139.5	O 159
Nov 21	vsSEA	L 69-77	-10.5	L −18.5	152.5	U 146
Nov 27	vsMINN	W 72-68	-2.5	W +1.5	142.5	U 140

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PRST

W 89-79

−1.5

MONT

W 91-68

+10.5

MTST

W 77-68

−5.5

W 93-66

+6.5

SEA

L 69-77

−18.5

MINN

W 72-68

+1.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PRST

W 89-79

+23.5

MONT

W 91-68

+8.5

MTST

W 77-68

−3.5

W 93-66

+19.5

SEA

L 69-77

−6.5

MINN

W 72-68

−2.5

over 3under 3avg +6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Saint Louis

6 games played

Straight up

6-0

100% wins

Against the spread

4-2

67% covers · avg +5.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −0.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-0100%

W W W W W W

6 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-267%

W L W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

O O O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsSEMO	W 92-67	-19.5	W +5.5	153.5	O 159
Nov 6	vsCHST	W 108-86	-30.5	L −8.5	155.5	O 194
Nov 10	vsLIN	W 109-66	-24.5	W +18.5	165.5	O 175
Nov 15	vsGCU	W 78-64	-8.5	W +5.5	167.5	U 142
Nov 21	vsPFW	W 91-60	-19.5	W +11.5	166.5	U 151
Nov 27	vsSCU	W 71-70	-1.5	L −0.5	158.5	U 141

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SEMO

W 92-67

+5.5

CHST

W 108-86

−8.5

LIN

W 109-66

+18.5

GCU

W 78-64

+5.5

PFW

W 91-60

+11.5

SCU

W 71-70

−0.5

covered 4didn’t cover 2avg +5.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SEMO

W 92-67

+5.5

CHST

W 108-86

+38.5

LIN

W 109-66

+9.5

GCU

W 78-64

−25.5

PFW

W 91-60

−15.5

SCU

W 71-70

−17.5

over 3under 3avg −0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Stanford Cardinal vs Saint Louis Billikens

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Stanford

Saint Louis

Stanford

Saint Louis