Wichita State Shockers vs Western Kentucky Hilltoppers: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 28, 7:00 PM ETImperial Arena · Neutral site

Final

#129WKUWestern KY75▲ winner

Closing lineWICH -4.5✓ WKU covered by 9.5

Closing total155.5Under by 10.5

Season records: Wichita St and Western KY
WICH	This season	WKU
4-3	Record	3-2
6-1	ATS	4-1
3-4	O/U	3-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: WICH 80–75 WKU · ✗ WICH (66%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
WICH	29	41	70
WKU	33	42	75

1st half: WICH 29, WKU 33 (WKU by 4). The model had WICH by 3.1 and a total of 72.6 (actual 62).

Team stats

WICH		WKU
21-57 37%	Field goals	25-59 42%
7-23 30%	3-pointers	7-20 35%
21-26 81%	Free throws	18-23 78%
42 16 off	Rebounds	36 12 off
11	Assists	9
3	Steals	6
3	Blocks	1
9	Turnovers	7
20	Fouls	20
20	Points in paint	18
6	Fast-break points	3

Players

WICH	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Kenyon Giles G	38	18	6	2	6-12	3-7
Karon Boyd F	34	15	4	1	5-10	2-4
TJ Williams G	23	8	7	1	2-9	0-2
Michael Gray Jr. G	20	3	2	2	1-7	1-6
William Berg C	16	4	3	0	1-2	0-0
Bench
Emmanuel Okorafor F	24	8	7	1	1-3	0-0
Jaret Valencia F	17	1	1	2	0-4	0-1
Dre Kindell G	15	2	3	2	1-3	0-1
Brian Amuneke G	13	11	2	0	4-7	1-2

Did not play: Dillon Battie, Tyrus Rathan-Mayes, Joy Ighovodja, Henry Thengvall, Pierre Couisnard, Noah Hill

WKU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Armelo Boone G	36	22	3	3	8-14	1-5
Grant Newell F	28	18	4	0	7-14	3-5
Teagan Moore G	25	18	6	2	6-11	0-1
Blaise Keita F	24	0	3	2	0-3	0-0
Cam Haffner G	19	3	3	0	1-5	1-5
Bench
LJ Hackman G	23	9	5	0	2-6	1-2
Ryan Myers G	11	5	1	0	1-4	1-2
Noah Boyde C	11	0	2	1	0-1	0-0
Bryant Selebangue F	10	0	4	0	0-1	0-0
Jack Edelen G	5	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Leeroy Odiahi F	4	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Louie Semona III F	4	0	0	1	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Kade Unseld, Cade Stinnett, Lawson Rice, Terrion Murdix

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	WICH -4.5	WICH -4.8	WICH +0.3	L WKU covered
Total	155.5	154.9	Under 0.6	W Under
Projected score	—	WICH 79.9 · WKU 75.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	WICH -3.1	WKU -4.0
1H total	72.6	62
1H projected score	WICH 37.8 · WKU 34.7	WICH 29 · WKU 33

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
WICH WWWWL	6-1	86%	1-1	4-0
WKU LWWWW	4-1	80%	2-0	2-0

Venue/role: WICH neutral site, as favorite; WKU neutral site, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
WICH OUUUO	3-4	43%	4-3
WKU UOOUO	3-2	60%	3-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WICHlast 7	4-3 57%	6-1 86%	3-4 43%
WKUlast 5	3-2 60%	4-1 80%	3-2 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

WICH 2–0 WKUWICH leads · 2 games since 2021-22 · WICH has won the last 2 meetings · WICH 2-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 4, 2024-25	WICH 91 @ WKU 84	WKU -0.5	WICH W
Nov 9, 2023-24	WKU 61 @ WICH 71	WICH -7.5	WICH W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Wichita St

7 games played

Straight up

4-3

57% wins

Against the spread

6-1

86% covers · avg +8.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-4

43% overs · avg −7.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-357%

W W W L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

6-186%

W W W W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-443%

U O O U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsUNCA	W 75-58	-6.5	W +10.5	157.5	U 133
Nov 8	vsPV	W 105-62	-20.5	W +22.5	156.5	O 167
Nov 13	vsLUC	W 95-74	-5.5	W +15.5	153.5	O 169
Nov 18	@BOIS	L 59-62	+9.5	W +6.5	150.5	U 121
Nov 22	vsMILW	W 75-58	-10.5	W +6.5	158.5	U 133
Nov 26	vsSMC	L 65-70	+9.5	W +4.5	139.5	U 135
Nov 27	vsCSU	L 70-76	+1.5	L −4.5	142.5	O 146

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UNCA

W 75-58

+10.5

W 105-62

+22.5

LUC

W 95-74

+15.5

BOIS

L 59-62

+6.5

MILW

W 75-58

+6.5

SMC

L 65-70

+4.5

CSU

L 70-76

−4.5

covered 6didn’t cover 1avg +8.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UNCA

W 75-58

−24.5

W 105-62

+10.5

LUC

W 95-74

+15.5

BOIS

L 59-62

−29.5

MILW

W 75-58

−25.5

SMC

L 65-70

−4.5

CSU

L 70-76

+3.5

over 3under 4avg −7.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Western KY

5 games played

Straight up

3-2

60% wins

Against the spread

4-1

80% covers · avg +3.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-2

60% overs · avg +4.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-260%

W W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-180%

L W W W W

4 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-260%

U O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsTNTC	W 82-70	-14.5	L −2.5	153.5	U 152
Nov 10	@EKU	W 87-79	-1.5	W +6.5	162.5	O 166
Nov 16	vsTNST	W 95-82	-12.5	W +0.5	167.5	O 177
Nov 26	vsVAN	L 78-83	+18.5	W +13.5	168.5	U 161
Nov 27	vsUSF	L 91-97	+7.5	W +1.5	167.5	O 188

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TNTC

W 82-70

−2.5

EKU

W 87-79

+6.5

TNST

W 95-82

+0.5

VAN

L 78-83

+13.5

USF

L 91-97

+1.5

covered 4didn’t cover 1avg +3.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TNTC

W 82-70

−1.5

EKU

W 87-79

+3.5

TNST

W 95-82

+9.5

VAN

L 78-83

−7.5

USF

L 91-97

+20.5

over 3under 2avg +4.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Wichita State Shockers vs Western Kentucky Hilltoppers

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Wichita St

Western KY

Wichita St

Western KY