Miami Hurricanes vs Georgetown Hoyas: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 28, 7:00 PM ETState Farm Field House · Neutral site

#25MIAMiami78▲ winner

Final

Closing lineMIA -5.5✓ MIA covered by 7.5

Closing total151.5Under by 8.5

Season records: Miami and Georgetown
MIA	This season	GTWN
5-2	Record	5-1
4-3	ATS	2-4
4-3	O/U	5-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: MIA 81–75 GTWN · ✓ MIA (70%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
MIA	41	37	78
GTWN	20	45	65

1st half: MIA 41, GTWN 20 (MIA by 21). The model had MIA by 3.7 and a total of 72.7 (actual 61).

Team stats

MIA		GTWN
30-51 59%	Field goals	21-59 36%
6-10 60%	3-pointers	7-26 27%
12-16 75%	Free throws	16-24 67%
33 8 off	Rebounds	31 17 off
14	Assists	15
8	Steals	9
2	Blocks	1
15	Turnovers	11
19	Fouls	14
32	Points in paint	22
11	Fast-break points	14

Players

MIA	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Tre Donaldson G	33	13	4	6	6-11	1-3
Tru Washington G	28	17	6	1	7-10	0-0
Malik Reneau F	27	23	4	1	8-14	3-3
Ernest Udeh Jr. C	26	2	11	0	1-2	0-0
Shelton Henderson F	20	5	2	0	2-5	0-0
Bench
Dante Allen G	26	4	1	5	1-3	0-1
Marcus Allen F	15	4	2	1	1-2	0-1
Salih Altuntas C	13	4	3	0	2-2	0-0
Timo Malovec F	6	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Noam Dovrat G	6	6	0	0	2-2	2-2

Did not play: Treyvon Maddox, Jordyn Kee, JJ Laboy

GTWN	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Malik Mack G	34	16	3	7	3-11	2-6
Julius Halaifonua C	30	5	3	1	2-7	0-3
Caleb Williams F	30	23	6	1	8-14	5-10
KJ Lewis G	30	11	5	2	3-12	0-2
Isaiah Abraham F	11	0	3	1	0-2	0-2
Bench
DeShawn Harris-Smith G	19	4	2	2	2-2	0-0
Jeremiah Williams G	18	2	2	0	1-4	0-1
Jayden Fort F	11	2	3	0	1-3	0-0
Langston Love G	11	2	1	1	1-2	0-1
Seal Diouf C	3	0	1	0	0-1	0-0
Kayvaun Mulready G	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Michael Van Raaphorst G	1	0	0	0	0-1	0-1

Did not play: Vince Iwuchukwu, Austin Montgomery, Hashem Asadallah, Mason Moses

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	MIA -5.5	MIA -5.9	MIA +0.4	W MIA covered
Total	151.5	155.3	Over 3.8	L Under
Projected score	—	MIA 80.6 · GTWN 74.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	MIA -3.7	MIA -21.0
1H total	72.7	61
1H projected score	MIA 38.2 · GTWN 34.5	MIA 41 · GTWN 20

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
MIA WLWWL	4-3	57%	0-2	4-1
GTWN WLWLL	2-4	33%	0-1	2-1

Venue/role: MIA neutral site, as favorite; GTWN neutral site, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIA OUOUU	4-3	57%	5-2
GTWN UOOOO	5-1	83%	5-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MIAlast 7	5-2 71%	4-3 57%	4-3 57%
GTWNlast 6	5-1 83%	2-4 33%	5-1 83%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Miami

7 games played

Straight up

5-2

71% wins

Against the spread

4-3

57% covers · avg +7.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg −5.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-271%

W W W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

4-357%

L W W L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-357%

O O O U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsJAX	W 86-69	-18.5	L −1.5	142.5	O 155
Nov 6	vsBCU	W 101-61	-16.5	W +23.5	154.5	O 162
Nov 10	vsSTET	W 102-61	-34.5	W +6.5	161.5	O 163
Nov 16	vsFLA	L 68-82	+10.5	L −3.5	171.5	U 150
Nov 20	vsELON	W 99-72	-19.5	W +7.5	164.5	O 171
Nov 23	vsDSU	W 97-41	-34.5	W +21.5	151.5	U 138
Nov 27	vsBYU	L 62-72	+7.5	L −2.5	165.5	U 134

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

JAX

W 86-69

−1.5

BCU

W 101-61

+23.5

STET

W 102-61

+6.5

FLA

L 68-82

−3.5

ELON

W 99-72

+7.5

DSU

W 97-41

+21.5

BYU

L 62-72

−2.5

covered 4didn’t cover 3avg +7.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

JAX

W 86-69

+12.5

BCU

W 101-61

+7.5

STET

W 102-61

+1.5

FLA

L 68-82

−21.5

ELON

W 99-72

+6.5

DSU

W 97-41

−13.5

BYU

L 62-72

−31.5

over 4under 3avg −5.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Georgetown

6 games played

Straight up

5-1

83% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −2.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-1

83% overs · avg +9 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-183%

W W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-433%

L W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

5-183%

O U O O O O

4 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsMORG	W 87-70	-27.5	L −10.5	154.5	O 157
Nov 7	@MD	W 70-60	+4.5	W +14.5	144.5	U 130
Nov 12	vsBING	W 83-70	-27.5	L −14.5	141.5	O 153
Nov 15	vsCLEM	W 79-74	+1.5	W +6.5	142.5	O 153
Nov 22	vsWAG	W 92-75	-25.5	L −8.5	140.5	O 167
Nov 27	vsDAY	L 79-84	+1.5	L −3.5	145.5	O 163

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MORG

W 87-70

−10.5

W 70-60

+14.5

BING

W 83-70

−14.5

CLEM

W 79-74

+6.5

WAG

W 92-75

−8.5

DAY

L 79-84

−3.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −2.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MORG

W 87-70

+2.5

W 70-60

−14.5

BING

W 83-70

+11.5

CLEM

W 79-74

+10.5

WAG

W 92-75

+26.5

DAY

L 79-84

+17.5

over 5under 1avg +9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Miami vs Georgetown

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Miami

Georgetown

Miami

Georgetown