Cal State Northridge Matadors vs Idaho State Bengals: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 28, 6:30 PM ETIdaho Central Arena · Neutral site

Final

#344IDSTIdaho St82▲ winner

Closing lineIDST -1.5✓ IDST covered by 30.5

Closing total148.5Under by 16.5

Season records: CSU Northridge and Idaho St
CSUN	This season	IDST
2-3	Record	1-4
2-3	ATS	4-1
3-2	O/U	2-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: CSUN 76–77 IDST · ✓ IDST (54%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
CSUN	18	32	50
IDST	39	43	82

1st half: CSUN 18, IDST 39 (IDST by 21). The model had IDST by 0.6 and a total of 71.3 (actual 57).

Team stats

CSUN		IDST
14-69 20%	Field goals	28-58 48%
7-34 21%	3-pointers	11-29 38%
15-19 79%	Free throws	15-19 79%
37 16 off	Rebounds	44 7 off
9	Assists	14
7	Steals	6
0	Blocks	8
15	Turnovers	14
17	Fouls	21
14	Points in paint	26
6	Fast-break points	10

Players

CSUN	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Josiah Davis G	34	4	4	4	2-8	0-0
Davius Loury F	30	5	2	2	1-10	1-7
Larry Hughes II G	27	7	3	1	2-15	1-8
Mahmoud Fofana F	24	4	6	0	0-4	0-0
Joshua O'Garro G	22	2	6	1	1-9	0-5
Bench
Jordan Brinson G	20	5	1	0	2-4	1-3
Jai Chisolm G	13	15	2	0	5-9	3-5
Aleks Szymczyk C	12	6	6	0	1-3	1-2
James Evans Jr. G	10	0	1	1	0-5	0-2
Grady Lewis F	4	0	1	0	0-0	0-0
Greg Gazarian G	2	2	0	0	0-1	0-1
Robert Thibiant G	2	0	0	0	0-1	0-1

Did not play: Omer Dahan, Max Rehl, Jalen Barbee, Joseph Barrio, Quinton Webb

IDST	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Martin Kheil G	34	13	5	4	4-12	3-9
Connor Hollenbeck F	31	11	6	4	3-11	3-6
Lachlan Brewer G	28	6	6	2	3-6	0-3
Jamison Guerra PG	20	10	1	0	3-4	2-2
Evan Otten F	15	3	8	0	1-4	0-0
Bench
Gus Etchison G	17	14	3	3	5-9	1-5
Blake Daberkow F	15	4	3	0	2-2	0-0
Cheikh Sow G	13	5	2	0	1-1	0-0
Caleb Van De Griend F	10	11	4	1	4-4	1-1
Quin Patterson F	9	3	0	0	1-3	1-3
Louis Bond G	3	0	1	0	0-1	0-0
Landen Birley G	3	2	0	0	1-1	0-0
Kasen Carpenter G	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Trey Arland, Jaedyn Brown

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	IDST -1.5	IDST -1.2	CSUN +0.3	L IDST covered
Total	148.5	152.2	Over 3.7	L Under
Projected score	—	CSUN 75.5 · IDST 76.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	IDST -0.6	IDST -21.0
1H total	71.3	57
1H projected score	CSUN 35.4 · IDST 35.9	CSUN 18 · IDST 39

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
CSUN LWLWL	2-3	40%	0-1	1-3
IDST WWWWL	4-1	80%	0-1	—

Venue/role: CSUN neutral site, as underdog; IDST neutral site, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
CSUN UOOOU	3-2	60%	2-3
IDST UUOUO	2-3	40%	1-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CSUNlast 5	2-3 40%	2-3 40%	3-2 60%
IDSTlast 5	1-4 20%	4-1 80%	2-3 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

CSU Northridge

5 games played

Straight up

2-3

40% wins

Against the spread

2-3

40% covers · avg −6.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-2

60% overs · avg +2.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-340%

L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-340%

L W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-260%

U O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 6	@UNI	L 57-86	+9.5	L −19.5	153.5	U 143
Nov 9	@UND	W 93-85	-6.5	W +1.5	158.5	O 178
Nov 11	@NDSU	L 68-90	+4.5	L −17.5	156.5	O 158
Nov 16	vsTROY	W 94-85	+4.5	W +13.5	157.5	O 179
Nov 26	vsIDHO	L 64-78	+1.5	L −12.5	159.5	U 142

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UNI

L 57-86

−19.5

UND

W 93-85

+1.5

NDSU

L 68-90

−17.5

TROY

W 94-85

+13.5

IDHO

L 64-78

−12.5

covered 2didn’t cover 3avg −6.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UNI

L 57-86

−10.5

UND

W 93-85

+19.5

NDSU

L 68-90

+1.5

TROY

W 94-85

+21.5

IDHO

L 64-78

−17.5

over 3under 2avg +2.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Idaho St

5 games played

Straight up

1-4

20% wins

Against the spread

4-1

80% covers · avg +3.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-3

40% overs · avg −0.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-420%

W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-180%

W W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-340%

U U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	@USD	W 71-68	+4.5	W +7.5	152.5	U 139
Nov 9	@SDSU	L 57-73	+21.5	W +5.5	135.5	U 130
Nov 15	@SEA	L 74-83	+11.5	W +2.5	138.5	O 157
Nov 18	@SCU	L 55-64	+14.5	W +5.5	141.5	U 119
Nov 26	vsSHSU	L 81-84	+1.5	L −1.5	142.5	O 165

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

USD

W 71-68

+7.5

SDSU

L 57-73

+5.5

SEA

L 74-83

+2.5

SCU

L 55-64

+5.5

SHSU

L 81-84

−1.5

covered 4didn’t cover 1avg +3.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

USD

W 71-68

−13.5

SDSU

L 57-73

−5.5

SEA

L 74-83

+18.5

SCU

L 55-64

−22.5

SHSU

L 81-84

+22.5

over 2under 3avg −0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

CSU Northridge vs Idaho St

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

CSU Northridge

Idaho St

CSU Northridge

Idaho St