Idaho Vandals vs Cal State Northridge Matadors: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Nov 26, 9:00 PM ETIdaho Central Arena · Neutral site

#247IDHOIdaho78▲ winner

Final

Closing lineIDHO -1.5✓ IDHO covered by 12.5

Closing total159.5Under by 17.5

Season records: Idaho and CSU Northridge
IDHO	This season	CSUN
1-2	Record	2-2
1-2	ATS	2-2
1-2	O/U	3-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: IDHO 80–79 CSUN · ✓ IDHO (53%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
IDHO	37	41	78
CSUN	37	27	64

1st half: IDHO 37, CSUN 37 (tied). The model had IDHO by 0.6 and a total of 74.5 (actual 74).

Team stats

IDHO		CSUN
22-60 37%	Field goals	22-61 36%
12-41 29%	3-pointers	3-23 13%
22-27 81%	Free throws	17-25 68%
40 11 off	Rebounds	37 10 off
12	Assists	8
7	Steals	8
1	Blocks	1
11	Turnovers	11
21	Fouls	21
18	Points in paint	34
5	Fast-break points	16

Players

IDHO	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jackson Rasmussen F	37	14	3	0	3-6	2-5
Brody Rowbury F	30	6	2	2	0-1	0-0
Biko Johnson G	27	23	6	3	7-17	5-14
Jack Payne G	24	3	6	0	1-6	1-3
Kolton Mitchell G	22	9	2	5	3-9	1-6
Bench
Miles Klapper G	19	7	4	0	3-8	1-5
Tre Blassingame G	15	3	3	0	0-4	0-4
Isaiah Brickner G	12	13	4	1	5-9	2-4
Seth Joba F	11	0	3	1	0-0	0-0
Ewan Steele F	3	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Will Jenson, Talon Jenkins, Kristian Gonzalez, Titus Yearout, Tyler Linhardt, Aidan Sevilla

CSUN	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Joshua O'Garro G	38	13	13	2	6-11	0-4
Josiah Davis G	38	16	3	5	6-16	0-2
Mahmoud Fofana F	31	9	7	0	2-6	0-1
Larry Hughes II G	27	17	0	0	5-13	3-7
Davius Loury F	15	2	0	0	1-3	0-2
Bench
Aleks Szymczyk C	15	5	4	0	1-2	0-1
Jordan Brinson G	15	0	4	0	0-3	0-3
James Evans Jr. G	11	0	2	1	0-5	0-2
Grady Lewis F	8	2	2	0	1-1	0-0
Jai Chisolm G	2	0	0	0	0-1	0-1

Did not play: Greg Gazarian, Max Rehl, Omer Dahan, Robert Thibiant, Jalen Barbee, Joseph Barrio, Quinton Webb

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	IDHO -1.5	IDHO -0.7	CSUN +0.8	L IDHO covered
Total	159.5	159.0	Under 0.5	W Under
Projected score	—	IDHO 79.9 · CSUN 79.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	IDHO -0.6	PK
1H total	74.5	74
1H projected score	IDHO 37.5 · CSUN 36.9	IDHO 37 · CSUN 37

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
IDHO WLL	1-2	33%	—	0-1
CSUN LWLW	2-2	50%	—	1-2

Venue/role: IDHO neutral site, as favorite; CSUN neutral site, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
IDHO OUU	1-2	33%	1-2
CSUN UOOO	3-1	75%	2-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
IDHOlast 3	1-2 33%	1-2 33%	1-2 33%
CSUNlast 4	2-2 50%	2-2 50%	3-1 75%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

IDHO 1–1 CSUNSeries tied · 2 games since 2021-22 · IDHO 1-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 9, 2023-24	CSUN 76 @ IDHO 73	IDHO +2.5	CSUN W
Dec 19, 2022-23	IDHO 76 @ CSUN 73	CSUN -4.5	IDHO W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Idaho

3 games played

Straight up

1-2

33% wins

Against the spread

1-2

33% covers · avg +0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-2

33% overs · avg −0.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-233%

W L L

2 straight losses1 of 3 won

Against the spread

1-233%

W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of 3 covered

Over / Under

1-233%

O U U

2 straight unders1 of 3 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@WSU	W 83-81	+7.5	W +9.5	154.5	O 164
Nov 12	@USD	L 74-78	-1.5	L −5.5	155.5	U 152
Nov 15	@UCSD	L 67-75	+5.5	L −2.5	148.5	U 142

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WSU

W 83-81

+9.5

USD

L 74-78

−5.5

UCSD

L 67-75

−2.5

covered 1didn’t cover 2avg +0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WSU

W 83-81

+9.5

USD

L 74-78

−3.5

UCSD

L 67-75

−6.5

over 1under 2avg −0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

CSU Northridge

4 games played

Straight up

2-2

50% wins

Against the spread

2-2

50% covers · avg −5.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-1

75% overs · avg +8 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-250%

L W L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-250%

L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-175%

U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 6	@UNI	L 57-86	+9.5	L −19.5	153.5	U 143
Nov 9	@UND	W 93-85	-6.5	W +1.5	158.5	O 178
Nov 11	@NDSU	L 68-90	+4.5	L −17.5	156.5	O 158
Nov 16	vsTROY	W 94-85	+4.5	W +13.5	157.5	O 179

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UNI

L 57-86

−19.5

UND

W 93-85

+1.5

NDSU

L 68-90

−17.5

TROY

W 94-85

+13.5

covered 2didn’t cover 2avg −5.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UNI

L 57-86

−10.5

UND

W 93-85

+19.5

NDSU

L 68-90

+1.5

TROY

W 94-85

+21.5

over 3under 1avg +8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Idaho vs CSU Northridge

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Idaho

CSU Northridge

Idaho

CSU Northridge