Alabama State Hornets at New Mexico Lobos: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Nov 26, 9:00 PM ETThe Pit · at New Mexico

#302ALSTAlabama St87final

Final

#82UNMNew Mexico93▲ winner

Closing lineUNM -19.5✓ ALST covered by 13.5

Closing total148.5Over by 31.5

Season records: Alabama St and New Mexico
ALST	This season	UNM
2-4	Record	4-2
3-3	ATS	2-4
2-4	O/U	4-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: ALST 66–84 UNM · ✓ UNM (94%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
ALST	51	36	87
UNM	38	55	93

1st half: ALST 51, UNM 38 (ALST by 13). The model had UNM by 10.5 and a total of 70.0 (actual 89).

Team stats

ALST		UNM
29-56 52%	Field goals	27-54 50%
13-26 50%	3-pointers	12-26 46%
16-20 80%	Free throws	27-38 71%
30 10 off	Rebounds	27 10 off
13	Assists	17
8	Steals	6
3	Blocks	2
17	Turnovers	11
25	Fouls	16
24	Points in paint	26
14	Fast-break points	10

Players

ALST	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Micah Simpson G	36	18	5	4	7-14	4-8
Cameron Palesse G	35	6	5	3	2-3	1-2
Asjon Anderson G	35	30	4	4	9-20	6-12
Jerquarius Stanback F	30	13	9	0	5-7	0-1
R'Chaun King F	29	10	3	1	2-5	0-0
Bench
Tyler Byrd G	17	10	3	1	4-6	2-3
Tyler Mason F	9	0	0	0	0-1	0-0
Damarien Yates F	7	0	1	0	0-0	0-0
Mario Andrews C	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Jordon Marshall, Kevin Alabi, Tyler Mack, Damarion Bonds, Damion Cox Jr., Trey Miller, JaSteven Walker

UNM	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jake Hall G	31	24	0	1	7-12	7-12
Tomislav Buljan F	29	5	7	4	2-5	0-0
Chris Howell G	26	4	2	5	0-2	0-0
Deyton Albury G	24	18	3	5	3-4	0-0
Antonio Chol F	22	12	0	0	4-9	2-6
Bench
Uriah Tenette G	29	11	4	0	4-10	2-5
Luke Haupt G	16	6	2	1	2-3	0-0
Kevin Patton Jr. G	14	8	3	1	3-5	0-1
JT Rock C	5	3	0	0	1-1	1-1
Milos Vicentic F	4	2	2	0	1-3	0-1

Did not play: Kallai Patton, Sir Marius Jones, Tajavis Miller, Timeo Pons

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	UNM -19.5	UNM -17.6	ALST +1.9	W ALST covered
Total	148.5	149.4	Over 0.9	W Over
Projected score	—	ALST 65.9 · UNM 83.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UNM -10.5	ALST -13.0
1H total	70.0	89
1H projected score	ALST 29.8 · UNM 40.2	ALST 51 · UNM 38

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ALST WLWWL	3-3	50%	2-2	3-3
UNM WLLLW	2-4	33%	1-2	1-3

Venue/role: ALST away, as underdog; UNM home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
ALST UOUUO	2-4	33%	2-4
UNM UOOOO	4-2	67%	4-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ALSTlast 6	2-4 33%	3-3 50%	2-4 33%
UNMlast 6	4-2 67%	2-4 33%	4-2 67%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Alabama St

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +2.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −2 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L W L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-350%

L W L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-433%

U U O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	@FSU	L 64-101	+24.5	L −12.5	166.5	U 165
Nov 11	@UAB	W 77-74	+19.5	W +22.5	164.5	U 151
Nov 17	@COLO	L 66-94	+22.5	L −5.5	156.5	O 160
Nov 19	@AF	L 64-66	+2.5	W +0.5	138.5	U 130
Nov 21	vsIUIN	W 101-80	+2.5	W +23.5	181.5	U 181
Nov 23	vsSIUE	L 68-83	+1.5	L −13.5	142.5	O 151

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

FSU

L 64-101

−12.5

UAB

W 77-74

+22.5

COLO

L 66-94

−5.5

L 64-66

+0.5

IUIN

W 101-80

+23.5

SIUE

L 68-83

−13.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

FSU

L 64-101

−1.5

UAB

W 77-74

−13.5

COLO

L 66-94

+3.5

L 64-66

−8.5

IUIN

W 101-80

−0.5

SIUE

L 68-83

+8.5

over 2under 4avg −2 ptslonger = bigger margin

New Mexico

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −1.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-2

67% overs · avg −0.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

W W W L L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-433%

L W L L L W

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-267%

U U O O O O

4 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 5	vsETAM	W 76-54	-22.5	L −0.5	143.5	U 130
Nov 8	vsUTA	W 74-56	-13.5	W +4.5	145.5	U 130
Nov 11	vsUCR	W 82-68	-19.5	L −5.5	141.5	O 150
Nov 15	@NMSU	L 68-76	-3.5	L −11.5	139.5	O 144
Nov 20	vsNEB	L 72-84	+8.5	L −3.5	151.5	O 156
Nov 21	vsMSST	W 80-78	+6.5	W +8.5	151.5	O 158

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ETAM

W 76-54

−0.5

UTA

W 74-56

+4.5

UCR

W 82-68

−5.5

NMSU

L 68-76

−11.5

NEB

L 72-84

−3.5

MSST

W 80-78

+8.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ETAM

W 76-54

−13.5

UTA

W 74-56

−15.5

UCR

W 82-68

+8.5

NMSU

L 68-76

+4.5

NEB

L 72-84

+4.5

MSST

W 80-78

+6.5

over 4under 2avg −0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Alabama State Hornets at New Mexico Lobos

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Alabama St

New Mexico

Alabama St

New Mexico