Alabama State Hornets vs SIU Edwardsville Cougars: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Nov 23, 1:00 PM ETClune Arena · Neutral site

#302ALSTAlabama St68final

Final

#256SIUESIUE83▲ winner

Closing lineSIUE -1.5✓ SIUE covered by 13.5

Closing total142.5Over by 8.5

Season records: Alabama St and SIUE
ALST	This season	SIUE
2-3	Record	2-3
3-2	ATS	3-2
1-4	O/U	2-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: ALST 71–70 SIUE · ✗ ALST (53%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
ALST	37	31	68
SIUE	28	55	83

1st half: ALST 37, SIUE 28 (ALST by 9). The model had ALST by 0.7 and a total of 66.3 (actual 65).

Team stats

ALST		SIUE
19-58 33%	Field goals	28-61 46%
5-23 22%	3-pointers	7-20 35%
25-31 81%	Free throws	20-30 67%
39 16 off	Rebounds	41 16 off
6	Assists	14
6	Steals	5
7	Blocks	7
9	Turnovers	8
20	Fouls	23
18	Points in paint	40
8	Fast-break points	16

Players

ALST	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Micah Simpson G	38	20	4	1	4-15	3-10
Asjon Anderson G	36	18	2	4	6-15	1-7
Cameron Palesse G	32	8	4	0	3-6	0-1
Jerquarius Stanback F	28	3	6	0	1-3	0-0
R'Chaun King F	11	3	3	0	0-4	0-0
Bench
Tyler Byrd G	20	9	1	1	3-8	0-2
Mario Andrews C	18	2	8	0	1-3	0-1
Tyler Mason F	9	0	2	0	0-1	0-0
Damarien Yates F	8	5	3	0	1-3	1-2

Did not play: Kevin Alabi, Jordon Marshall, Tyler Mack, Damion Cox Jr., Damarion Bonds, Trey Miller, JaSteven Walker

SIUE	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Ring Malith G	31	7	2	2	2-8	2-6
Jack Campion G	30	15	3	5	5-8	1-2
Kyle Thomas F	25	8	4	1	3-7	0-0
Jordan Pickett G	24	14	8	2	4-6	3-3
Myles Thompson F	24	14	5	0	5-10	0-1
Bench
Jo Valrie F	21	6	8	0	3-5	0-0
Tyler King G	13	5	1	0	2-6	0-4
Darrion Baker F	11	5	0	1	2-4	1-2
Arnas Sakenis C	11	5	3	1	1-3	0-0
Darius Robinson Jr. G	5	2	0	2	0-1	0-1
CJ Hall G	5	2	1	0	1-3	0-1

Did not play: Harrison Alexander, Dehrio McCaskill, Corentin Efono, Iwo Baganc

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	SIUE -1.5	ALST -0.9	ALST +2.4	L SIUE covered
Total	142.5	141.6	Under 0.9	L Over
Projected score	—	ALST 71.2 · SIUE 70.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	ALST -0.7	ALST -9.0
1H total	66.3	65
1H projected score	ALST 33.5 · SIUE 32.8	ALST 37 · SIUE 28

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
ALST LWLWW	3-2	60%	1-0	3-2
SIUE WLWWL	3-2	60%	—	0-2

Venue/role: ALST neutral site, as underdog; SIUE neutral site, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
ALST UUOUU	1-4	20%	2-3
SIUE UUUOO	2-3	40%	2-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ALSTlast 5	2-3 40%	3-2 60%	1-4 20%
SIUElast 5	2-3 40%	3-2 60%	2-3 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Alabama St

5 games played

Straight up

2-3

40% wins

Against the spread

3-2

60% covers · avg +5.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-4

20% overs · avg −4.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-340%

L W L L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-260%

L W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-420%

U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	@FSU	L 64-101	+24.5	L −12.5	166.5	U 165
Nov 11	@UAB	W 77-74	+19.5	W +22.5	164.5	U 151
Nov 17	@COLO	L 66-94	+22.5	L −5.5	156.5	O 160
Nov 19	@AF	L 64-66	+2.5	W +0.5	138.5	U 130
Nov 21	vsIUIN	W 101-80	+2.5	W +23.5	181.5	U 181

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

FSU

L 64-101

−12.5

UAB

W 77-74

+22.5

COLO

L 66-94

−5.5

L 64-66

+0.5

IUIN

W 101-80

+23.5

covered 3didn’t cover 2avg +5.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

FSU

L 64-101

−1.5

UAB

W 77-74

−13.5

COLO

L 66-94

+3.5

L 64-66

−8.5

IUIN

W 101-80

−0.5

over 1under 4avg −4.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

SIUE

5 games played

Straight up

2-3

40% wins

Against the spread

3-2

60% covers · avg +1.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-3

40% overs · avg −10.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-340%

W L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-260%

W L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-340%

U U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	@UTSA	W 77-60	+6.5	W +23.5	153.5	U 137
Nov 10	vsINST	L 55-64	-2.5	L −11.5	159.5	U 119
Nov 14	@DRKE	W 61-59	+7.5	W +9.5	142.5	U 120
Nov 17	@WIS	L 69-94	+25.5	W +0.5	146.5	O 163
Nov 21	@AF	L 63-77	-2.5	L −16.5	130.5	O 140

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UTSA

W 77-60

+23.5

INST

L 55-64

−11.5

DRKE

W 61-59

+9.5

WIS

L 69-94

+0.5

L 63-77

−16.5

covered 3didn’t cover 2avg +1.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UTSA

W 77-60

−16.5

INST

L 55-64

−40.5

DRKE

W 61-59

−22.5

WIS

L 69-94

+16.5

L 63-77

+9.5

over 2under 3avg −10.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Alabama State Hornets vs SIU Edwardsville Cougars

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Alabama St

SIUE

Alabama St

SIUE