Clemson Tigers vs Georgia Bulldogs: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Nov 23, 1:00 PM ETTD Arena · Neutral site

#35CLEMClemson97▲ winner

Final

#34UGAGeorgia94final

Closing lineCLEM -1.5✓ CLEM covered by 1.5

Closing total152.5Over by 38.5

Season records: Clemson and Georgia
CLEM	This season	UGA
5-1	Record	6-0
2-4	ATS	3-3
3-3	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: CLEM 76–80 UGA · ✗ UGA (64%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	OT	T
CLEM	41	39	17	97
UGA	40	40	14	94

1st half: CLEM 41, UGA 40 (CLEM by 1). The model had UGA by 2.3 and a total of 73.1 (actual 81).

Team stats

CLEM		UGA
32-69 46%	Field goals	32-66 48%
11-25 44%	3-pointers	9-30 30%
22-29 76%	Free throws	21-26 81%
45 15 off	Rebounds	35 8 off
12	Assists	14
8	Steals	8
0	Blocks	5
13	Turnovers	15
23	Fouls	25
38	Points in paint	42
5	Fast-break points	14

Players

CLEM	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jestin Porter G	40	18	2	0	7-14	4-9
Dillon Hunter G	35	16	7	1	4-6	2-2
Jake Wahlin F	26	6	4	0	1-4	0-2
RJ Godfrey F	24	12	7	2	4-6	0-0
Carter Welling F	22	11	5	2	5-10	1-2
Bench
Butta Johnson G	23	13	1	1	4-8	1-3
Nick Davidson F	22	6	9	2	1-8	0-1
Zac Foster G	17	11	1	2	4-8	3-4
Ace Buckner G	14	4	6	2	2-5	0-2
Chase Thompson F	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Blake Davidson, Trent Steinour, Dallas Thomas

UGA	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Blue Cain G	36	19	7	3	5-9	3-6
Jeremiah Wilkinson G	27	26	0	0	9-15	2-5
Somto Cyril C	23	11	5	0	4-4	0-0
Jordan Ross G	21	6	4	2	3-5	0-1
Kanon Catchings F	20	7	2	2	2-8	1-5
Bench
Marcus Millender G	25	7	0	6	2-7	1-5
Dylan James F	20	4	6	0	2-7	0-2
Justin Bailey G	18	6	1	0	2-3	2-3
Justin Abson F	16	4	5	1	2-3	0-0
Kareem Stagg F	12	4	3	0	1-3	0-1
Jake Wilkins F	7	0	0	0	0-2	0-2

Did not play: Markel Jennings, Brandon Klatsky, Jaden Newell, Jackson McVey

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	CLEM -1.5	UGA -4.1	UGA +5.6	L CLEM covered
Total	152.5	156.1	Over 3.6	W Over
Projected score	—	CLEM 76 · UGA 80.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UGA -2.3	CLEM -1.0
1H total	73.1	81
1H projected score	CLEM 35.4 · UGA 37.7	CLEM 41 · UGA 40

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
CLEM WLLLL	2-4	33%	0-1	2-4
UGA WWLLL	3-3	50%	0-1	—

Venue/role: CLEM neutral site, as favorite; UGA neutral site, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
CLEM OUOUO	3-3	50%	5-1
UGA UOOUU	3-3	50%	6-0

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CLEMlast 6	5-1 83%	2-4 33%	3-3 50%
UGAlast 6	6-0 100%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Clemson

6 games played

Straight up

5-1

83% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg +2.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −1.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-183%

W W W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-433%

W W L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

U O U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsUNH	W 88-38	-29.5	W +20.5	146.5	U 126
Nov 7	vsGWEB	W 97-59	-29.5	W +8.5	145.5	O 156
Nov 11	vsMORE	W 83-56	-29.5	L −2.5	151.5	U 139
Nov 15	@GTWN	L 74-79	-1.5	L −6.5	142.5	O 153
Nov 17	vsUNA	W 81-61	-25.5	L −5.5	144.5	U 142
Nov 21	vsWVU	W 70-67	-4.5	L −1.5	132.5	O 137

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UNH

W 88-38

+20.5

GWEB

W 97-59

+8.5

W 83-56

−2.5

GTWN

L 74-79

−6.5

UNA

W 81-61

−5.5

WVU

W 70-67

−1.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg +2.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UNH

W 88-38

−20.5

GWEB

W 97-59

+10.5

W 83-56

−12.5

GTWN

L 74-79

+10.5

UNA

W 81-61

−2.5

WVU

W 70-67

+4.5

over 3under 3avg −1.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Georgia

6 games played

Straight up

6-0

100% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +5.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg +5 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-0100%

W W W W W W

6 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

O U O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsBELL	W 104-59	-23.5	W +21.5	150.5	O 163
Nov 5	vsUMES	W 94-29	-33.5	W +31.5	142.5	U 123
Nov 9	vsMORE	W 120-81	-28.5	W +10.5	150.5	O 201
Nov 14	vsGT	W 92-87	-15.5	L −10.5	155.5	O 179
Nov 17	vsFAMU	W 87-57	-40.5	L −10.5	170.5	U 144
Nov 21	vsXAV	W 78-77	-10.5	L −9.5	165.5	U 155

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BELL

W 104-59

+21.5

UMES

W 94-29

+31.5

W 120-81

+10.5

W 92-87

−10.5

FAMU

W 87-57

−10.5

XAV

W 78-77

−9.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +5.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BELL

W 104-59

+12.5

UMES

W 94-29

−19.5

W 120-81

+50.5

W 92-87

+23.5

FAMU

W 87-57

−26.5

XAV

W 78-77

−10.5

over 3under 3avg +5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Clemson Tigers vs Georgia Bulldogs

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Clemson

Georgia

Clemson

Georgia