Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions at Miami (OH) RedHawks: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Nov 23, 1:00 PM ETMillett Hall · at Miami OH

Final

#125M-OHMiami OH111▲ winner

Closing lineM-OH -21.5✓ M-OH covered by 5.5

Closing total160.5Over by 34.5

Season records: AR-Pine Bluff and Miami OH
UAPB	This season	M-OH
0-7	Record	3-0
3-4	ATS	1-2
3-4	O/U	2-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: UAPB 71–88 M-OH · ✓ M-OH (93%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
UAPB	36	48	84
M-OH	56	55	111

1st half: UAPB 36, M-OH 56 (M-OH by 20). The model had M-OH by 10.1 and a total of 74.2 (actual 92).

Team stats

UAPB		M-OH
28-69 41%	Field goals	36-64 56%
7-22 32%	3-pointers	11-23 48%
21-25 84%	Free throws	28-32 88%
32 10 off	Rebounds	39 7 off
18	Assists	25
8	Steals	7
4	Blocks	4
11	Turnovers	9
24	Fouls	21
36	Points in paint	50
16	Fast-break points	12

Players

UAPB	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Quion Williams G	36	12	6	7	4-12	2-3
Trevon Payton G	33	10	3	3	4-8	2-5
Milhan Charles G	31	13	5	1	4-6	0-0
Jaquan Scott F	31	19	12	4	7-16	0-1
Alex Mirhosseini G	16	0	1	1	0-5	0-4
Bench
Ramel Lloyd Jr. G	18	9	0	0	4-7	1-3
Jai'chaunn Hayes G	16	15	1	1	3-10	2-6
Ahmad Johnson G	10	6	0	1	2-3	0-0
Kyle Brown F	8	0	2	0	0-2	0-0
Dennis Asoro F	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Anthony Sellars, Trejon Ware, Travis Pourciau, Jahmari Hamilton-Brown, Harrison Pickett

M-OH	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Brant Byers F	24	10	5	0	4-8	2-5
Antwone Woolfolk F	23	14	7	3	6-8	0-0
Peter Suder G	23	17	1	4	6-9	2-3
Evan Ipsaro G	23	20	2	3	5-8	1-4
Eian Elmer G	22	4	8	1	1-5	1-3
Bench
Luke Skaljac G	23	9	3	6	3-7	1-2
Almar Atlason F	18	9	2	2	2-3	2-3
Trey Perry G	17	15	6	2	5-7	1-2
Tyler Robbins F	12	8	2	0	3-7	0-0
Kyle Waltz F	11	3	0	3	1-2	1-1
Brady Ganley G	2	2	0	0	0-0	0-0
Jackson Kotecki F	2	0	1	1	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Ethan Wright, Justin Kirby, Leshawn Stowers, Blake Anderson, Eli Yofan

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	M-OH -21.5	M-OH -17.1	UAPB +4.4	L M-OH covered
Total	160.5	158.4	Under 2.1	L Over
Projected score	—	UAPB 70.7 · M-OH 87.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	M-OH -10.1	M-OH -20.0
1H total	74.2	92
1H projected score	UAPB 32 · M-OH 42.2	UAPB 36 · M-OH 56

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UAPB LWWLL	3-4	43%	3-4	3-4
M-OH LWL	1-2	33%	0-2	1-2

Venue/role: UAPB away, as underdog; M-OH home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
UAPB OUOUO	3-4	43%	0-7
M-OH OUO	2-1	67%	3-0

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UAPBlast 7	0-7 0%	3-4 43%	3-4 43%
M-OHlast 3	3-0 100%	1-2 33%	2-1 67%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

AR-Pine Bluff

7 games played

Straight up

0-7

0% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg −0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-4

43% overs · avg −1.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-70%

L L L L L L L

7 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-443%

L W L W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-443%

U U O U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@WASH	L 50-94	+34.5	L −9.5	160.5	U 144
Nov 6	@PORT	L 74-83	+12.5	W +3.5	164.5	U 157
Nov 8	@LMU	L 72-94	+19.5	L −2.5	157.5	O 166
Nov 11	@OU	L 69-95	+36.5	W +10.5	168.5	U 164
Nov 15	@VAN	L 75-104	+41.5	W +12.5	172.5	O 179
Nov 18	@SMU	L 60-106	+35.5	L −10.5	168.5	U 166
Nov 20	@MRSH	L 70-98	+20.5	L −7.5	164.5	O 168

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WASH

L 50-94

−9.5

PORT

L 74-83

+3.5

LMU

L 72-94

−2.5

L 69-95

+10.5

VAN

L 75-104

+12.5

SMU

L 60-106

−10.5

MRSH

L 70-98

−7.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WASH

L 50-94

−16.5

PORT

L 74-83

−7.5

LMU

L 72-94

+8.5

L 69-95

−4.5

VAN

L 75-104

+6.5

SMU

L 60-106

−2.5

MRSH

L 70-98

+3.5

over 3under 4avg −1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Miami OH

3 games played

Straight up

3-0

100% wins

Against the spread

1-2

33% covers · avg −2.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-1

67% overs · avg +2.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-0100%

W W W

3 straight wins3 of 3 won

Against the spread

1-233%

L W L

1 of 3 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-167%

O U O

2 of 3 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsODU	W 87-72	-16.5	L −1.5	153.5	O 159
Nov 15	@AF	W 76-61	-10.5	W +4.5	143.5	U 137
Nov 20	vsMERC	W 76-71	-15.5	L −10.5	139.5	O 147

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ODU

W 87-72

−1.5

W 76-61

+4.5

MERC

W 76-71

−10.5

covered 1didn’t cover 2avg −2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ODU

W 87-72

+5.5

W 76-61

−6.5

MERC

W 76-71

+7.5

over 2under 1avg +2.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

AR-Pine Bluff @ Miami OH

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

AR-Pine Bluff

Miami OH

AR-Pine Bluff

Miami OH