State Farm Field House · Neutral site
Closing line
BYU -7.5✓ BYU covered by 2.5
BYU -7.5✓ BYU covered by 2.5Closing total165.5Under by 31.5
| BYU | This season | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 5-1 |
| 3-2 | ATS | 4-2 |
| 2-3 | O/U | 4-2 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: BYU 86–77 MIA · ✓ BYU (79%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| BYU | 29 | 43 | 72 |
| MIA | 33 | 29 | 62 |
1st half: BYU 29, MIA 33 (MIA by 4). The model had BYU by 5.8 and a total of 76.1 (actual 62).
Team stats
| BYU | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| 25-55 45% | Field goals | 25-66 38% |
| 9-19 47% | 3-pointers | 5-22 23% |
| 13-20 65% | Free throws | 7-17 41% |
| 42 9 off | Rebounds | 39 15 off |
| 12 | Assists | 10 |
| 7 | Steals | 6 |
| 8 | Blocks | 4 |
| 13 | Turnovers | 10 |
| 16 | Fouls | 17 |
| 24 | Points in paint | 34 |
| 11 | Fast-break points | 7 |
Players
| BYU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Wright III G | 37 | 17 | 2 | 4 | 5-13 | 2-2 |
| Kennard Davis Jr. G | 32 | 18 | 5 | 1 | 7-10 | 4-7 |
| AJ Dybantsa F | 32 | 16 | 8 | 2 | 5-14 | 0-2 |
| Richie Saunders G | 32 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 3-10 | 2-6 |
| Keba Keita F | 23 | 6 | 10 | 0 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Khadim Mboup F | 17 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Dawson Baker F | 14 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1-4 | 0-1 |
| Tyler Mrus F | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Dominique Diomande F | 5 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Mihailo Boskovic F | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Nate Pickens, Jared McGregor, Xavion Staton, Brody Kozlowski, Aleksej Kostic
| MIA | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tre Donaldson G | 37 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 4-16 | 3-11 |
| Shelton Henderson F | 36 | 13 | 5 | 4 | 6-13 | 0-1 |
| Malik Reneau F | 29 | 14 | 9 | 1 | 7-16 | 0-2 |
| Ernest Udeh Jr. C | 28 | 6 | 8 | 0 | 3-4 | 0-0 |
| Tru Washington G | 25 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 2-9 | 0-4 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Dante Allen G | 23 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 2-5 | 1-3 |
| Marcus Allen F | 12 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Salih Altuntas C | 6 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Timo Malovec F | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Treyvon Maddox, Jordyn Kee, JJ Laboy, Noam Dovrat
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketBYU -7.5
ModelBYU -9.3
Model edgeBYU +1.8
W BYU covered
Total
Market165.5
Model162.7
Model edgeUnder 2.8
W Under
Projected score
BYU 86 · MIA 76.7
BYU 72 · MIA 62
Win probability
BYU 79%
1st half
Spread
BYU -5.8
MIA -4.0
Total
76.1
62 points
Projected score
BYU 41 · MIA 35.2
BYU 29 · MIA 33
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenBYU -9.5
2 → MIA
CloseBYU -7.5
2 pts toward MIA
Total
Open165.5
no move
Close165.5
No change since the open
Moneyline
BYU -360 · MIA +285
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened BYU -9.5 · closed BYU -7.5 · moved 2 toward MIAmodel BYU -9.5
model BYU -9.5
Opened 165.5 · unchangedmodel 162.5
model 162.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| BYUlast 5 | 4-1 80% | 3-2 60% | 2-3 40% |
| MIAlast 6 | 5-1 83% | 4-2 67% | 4-2 67% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
BYU
5 games played
Straight up
4-1
80% wins
Against the spread
3-2
60% covers · avg +2.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-3
40% overs · avg −5.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vs
VILL
VILLW 71-66
−4.5
8
vs
HC
HCW 98-53
+6.5
11
vs
DEL
DELW 85-68
−18.5
15
vs
CONN
CONNL 84-86
+4.5
21
vs
WIS
WISW 98-70
+23.5
covered 3didn’t cover 2avg +2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsVILL
VILLW 71-66
−16.5
8
vsHC
HCW 98-53
−14.5
11
vsDEL
DELW 85-68
−11.5
15
vsCONN
CONNL 84-86
+13.5
21
vsWIS
WISW 98-70
+2.5
over 2under 3avg −5.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Miami
6 games played
Straight up
5-1
83% wins
Against the spread
4-2
67% covers · avg +9 pts vs the line
Over / Under
4-2
67% overs · avg −1.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vs
JAX
JAXW 86-69
−1.5
6
vs
BCU
BCUW 101-61
+23.5
10
vs
STET
STETW 102-61
+6.5
16
vs
FLA
FLAL 68-82
−3.5
20
vs
ELON
ELONW 99-72
+7.5
23
vs
DSU
DSUW 97-41
+21.5
covered 4didn’t cover 2avg +9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsJAX
JAXW 86-69
+12.5
6
vsBCU
BCUW 101-61
+7.5
10
vsSTET
STETW 102-61
+1.5
16
vsFLA
FLAL 68-82
−21.5
20
vsELON
ELONW 99-72
+6.5
23
vsDSU
DSUW 97-41
−13.5
over 4under 2avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
BYU
4-1 overall · 0-0 in conference · Big 12 Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Wisconsin98–70
- Lvs UConn84–86
- Wvs Delaware85–68
- Wvs Holy Cross98–53
- Wvs Villanova71–66
6 days since their last game.
Miami
5-1 overall · 0-0 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Delaware St97–41
- Wvs Elon99–72
- Lvs Florida68–82
- Wvs Stetson102–61
- Wvs Bethune101–61
4 days since their last game.