Bud Walton Arena · at Arkansas
Closing line
LOU -1.5✓ ARK covered by 10.5
LOU -1.5✓ ARK covered by 10.5Closing total166.5Over by 2.5
| LOU | This season | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| 7-0 | Record | 5-2 |
| 5-2 | ATS | 4-3 |
| 3-4 | O/U | 2-5 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: LOU 84–81 ARK · ✗ LOU (60%) lost
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| LOU | 29 | 51 | 80 |
| ARK | 47 | 42 | 89 |
1st half: LOU 29, ARK 47 (ARK by 18). The model had LOU by 2.0 and a total of 76.9 (actual 76).
Team stats
| LOU | ARK | |
|---|---|---|
| 29-70 41% | Field goals | 28-67 42% |
| 8-37 22% | 3-pointers | 6-18 33% |
| 14-18 78% | Free throws | 27-35 77% |
| 36 12 off | Rebounds | 46 18 off |
| 13 | Assists | 14 |
| 2 | Steals | 5 |
| 3 | Blocks | 3 |
| 9 | Turnovers | 10 |
| 25 | Fouls | 15 |
| 42 | Points in paint | 34 |
| 8 | Fast-break points | 8 |
Players
| LOU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mikel Brown Jr. G | 34 | 22 | 5 | 3 | 7-19 | 2-13 |
| Ryan Conwell G | 33 | 15 | 1 | 4 | 4-16 | 3-12 |
| Isaac McKneely G | 30 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 3-8 | 1-5 |
| Sananda Fru F | 29 | 14 | 8 | 1 | 7-9 | 0-0 |
| J'Vonne Hadley G | 28 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 3-6 | 1-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Adrian Wooley G | 14 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 2-3 | 1-2 |
| Khani Rooths F | 9 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1-4 | 0-2 |
| Kobe Rodgers G | 9 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Aly Khalifa C | 8 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Kasean Pryor F | 6 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2-3 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Will Hanke, Vangelis Zougris, Mouhamed Camara, Cole Sherman, Spencer Legg
| ARK | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darius Acuff Jr. G | 36 | 17 | 5 | 10 | 6-18 | 0-4 |
| Trevon Brazile F | 32 | 21 | 5 | 0 | 8-11 | 3-4 |
| Nick Pringle F | 22 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| Karter Knox G | 21 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 2-9 | 1-2 |
| DJ Wagner G | 19 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2-8 | 1-3 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Billy Richmond III G | 27 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 2-4 | 0-1 |
| Meleek Thomas G | 25 | 17 | 5 | 1 | 4-10 | 1-4 |
| Malique Ewin F | 18 | 12 | 9 | 1 | 3-4 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Elmir Dzafic, Karim Rtail, Paulo Semedo, Ayden Kelley, Jaden Karuletwa, Amere Brown, Isaiah Sealy
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Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenLOU -3.5
2 → ARK
CloseLOU -1.5
2 pts toward ARK
Total
Open164.5
▲ 2
Close166.5
Up 2 since the open
Moneyline
LOU -130 · ARK +110
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened LOU -3.5 · closed LOU -1.5 · moved 2 toward ARKmodel LOU -3
model LOU -3
Opened 164.5 · closed 166.5 · moved 2 upmodel 164.5
model 164.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | LOU -1.5 | LOU -3.0 | LOU +1.5 | L ARK covered |
| Total | 166.5 | 164.3 | Under 2.2 | L Over |
| Projected score | — | LOU 83.7 · ARK 80.7 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | LOU -2.0 | ARK -18.0 |
| 1H total | 76.9 | 76 |
| 1H projected score | LOU 39.4 · ARK 37.5 | LOU 29 · ARK 47 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| LOUlast 7 | 7-0 100% | 5-2 71% | 3-4 43% |
| ARKlast 7 | 5-2 71% | 4-3 57% | 2-5 29% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
LOU 0–1 ARKARK leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · LOU 0-1 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 21, 2022-23 | LOU 54 vs ARK 80 | ARK -15.5 | ARK W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Louisville
7 games played
Straight up
7-0
100% wins
Against the spread
5-2
71% covers · avg +5.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
3-4
43% overs · avg −5.6 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs SCST | W 104-45 | -35.5 | W +23.5 | 159.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 6 | vs JKST | W 106-70 | -38.5 | L −2.5 | 165.5 | O 176 |
| Nov 11 | vs UK | W 96-88 | -5.5 | W +2.5 | 173.5 | O 184 |
| Nov 15 | vs OHIO | W 106-81 | -31.5 | L −6.5 | 174.5 | O 187 |
| Nov 21 | vs CIN | W 74-64 | -8.5 | W +1.5 | 163.5 | U 138 |
| Nov 24 | vs EMU | W 87-46 | -33.5 | W +7.5 | 162.5 | U 133 |
| Nov 26 | vs NJIT | W 104-47 | -44.5 | W +12.5 | 158.5 | U 151 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsSCST
SCSTW 104-45
+23.5
6
vsJKST
JKSTW 106-70
−2.5
11
vsUK
UKW 96-88
+2.5
15
vsOHIO
OHIOW 106-81
−6.5
21
vsCIN
CINW 74-64
+1.5
24
vsEMU
EMUW 87-46
+7.5
26
vsNJIT
NJITW 104-47
+12.5
covered 5didn’t cover 2avg +5.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsSCST
SCSTW 104-45
−10.5
6
vsJKST
JKSTW 106-70
+10.5
11
vsUK
UKW 96-88
+10.5
15
vsOHIO
OHIOW 106-81
+12.5
21
vsCIN
CINW 74-64
−25.5
24
vsEMU
EMUW 87-46
−29.5
26
vsNJIT
NJITW 104-47
−7.5
over 3under 4avg −5.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Arkansas
7 games played
Straight up
5-2
71% wins
Against the spread
4-3
57% covers · avg −1.2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-5
29% overs · avg +1.1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs SOU | W 109-77 | -26.5 | W +5.5 | 150.5 | O 186 |
| Nov 8 | @ MSU | L 66-69 | +2.5 | L −0.5 | 155.5 | U 135 |
| Nov 11 | vs CARK | W 93-56 | -35.5 | W +1.5 | 158.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 14 | vs SAM | W 79-75 | -24.5 | L −20.5 | 158.5 | U 154 |
| Nov 18 | vs WIN | W 84-83 | -23.5 | L −22.5 | 168.5 | U 167 |
| Nov 21 | vsJKST | W 115-61 | -29.5 | W +24.5 | 159.5 | O 176 |
| Nov 27 | vs DUKE | L 71-80 | +12.5 | W +3.5 | 159.5 | U 151 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsSOU
SOUW 109-77
+5.5
8
@MSU
MSUL 66-69
−0.5
11
vsCARK
CARKW 93-56
+1.5
14
vsSAM
SAMW 79-75
−20.5
18
vsWIN
WINW 84-83
−22.5
21
vsJKST
JKSTW 115-61
+24.5
27
vsDUKE
DUKEL 71-80
+3.5
covered 4didn’t cover 3avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsSOU
SOUW 109-77
+35.5
8
@MSU
MSUL 66-69
−20.5
11
vsCARK
CARKW 93-56
−9.5
14
vsSAM
SAMW 79-75
−4.5
18
vsWIN
WINW 84-83
−1.5
21
vsJKST
JKSTW 115-61
+16.5
27
vsDUKE
DUKEL 71-80
−8.5
over 2under 5avg +1.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Louisville
7-0 overall · 0-0 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs NJIT104–47
- Wvs E Michigan87–46
- Wvs Cincinnati74–64
- Wvs Ohio106–81
- Wvs Kentucky96–88
A week or more of rest.
Arkansas
5-2 overall · 0-0 in conference · Southeastern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Duke71–80
- Wvs Jackson St115–61
- Wvs Winthrop84–83
- Wvs Samford79–75
- Wvs C Arkansas93–56
6 days since their last game.