Dean E. Smith Center · at North Carolina · Conference game
Closing line
LOU -3.5✓ UNC covered by 6.5
LOU -3.5✓ UNC covered by 6.5Closing total162.5Under by 11.5
| LOU | This season | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| 20-7 | Record | 21-6 |
| 13-14 | ATS | 15-12 |
| 11-16 | O/U | 13-14 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: LOU 80–79 UNC · ✗ LOU (55%) lost
Loading the game…
Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| LOU | 38 | 36 | 74 |
| UNC | 39 | 38 | 77 |
1st half: LOU 38, UNC 39 (UNC by 1). The model had LOU by 1.0 and a total of 74.1 (actual 77).
Team stats
| LOU | UNC | |
|---|---|---|
| 26-67 39% | Field goals | 30-56 54% |
| 14-39 36% | 3-pointers | 8-22 36% |
| 8-11 73% | Free throws | 9-19 47% |
| 41 16 off | Rebounds | 32 7 off |
| 9 | Assists | 13 |
| 9 | Steals | 5 |
| 4 | Blocks | 3 |
| 10 | Turnovers | 9 |
| 20 | Fouls | 12 |
| 24 | Points in paint | 40 |
| 8 | Fast-break points | 8 |
Players
| LOU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mikel Brown Jr. G | 33 | 24 | 3 | 2 | 9-25 | 6-14 |
| J'Vonne Hadley G | 31 | 14 | 6 | 1 | 6-8 | 2-3 |
| Ryan Conwell G | 29 | 23 | 2 | 1 | 7-19 | 4-11 |
| Isaac McKneely G | 24 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0-5 | 0-5 |
| Sananda Fru F | 16 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Khani Rooths F | 21 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Vangelis Zougris F | 12 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Adrian Wooley G | 12 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Aly Khalifa C | 11 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0-3 | 0-2 |
| Kobe Rodgers G | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Kasean Pryor F | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Spencer Legg, Cole Sherman, London Johnson, Mouhamed Camara, Will Hanke
| UNC | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seth Trimble G | 37 | 30 | 4 | 4 | 11-16 | 1-3 |
| Jarin Stevenson F | 33 | 9 | 7 | 1 | 3-6 | 2-4 |
| Henri Veesaar C | 30 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 6-12 | 0-2 |
| Luka Bogavac G | 29 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 5-10 | 2-5 |
| Derek Dixon G | 24 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 2-4 | 2-4 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Zayden High F | 16 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 2-5 | 0-2 |
| Kyan Evans G | 16 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Jonathan Powell G | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Jaydon Young G | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Elijah Davis, Isaiah Denis, John Holbrook, Ivan Matlekovic, Caleb Wilson, James Brown, Evan Smith
Loading the game…
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenLOU -1.5
2 → LOU
CloseLOU -3.5
2 pts toward LOU
Total
Open161.5
▲ 1
Close162.5
Up 1 since the open
Moneyline
LOU -192 · UNC +160
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened LOU -1.5 · closed LOU -3.5 · moved 2 toward LOUmodel LOU -1.5
model LOU -1.5
Opened 161.5 · closed 162.5 · moved 1 upmodel 158.5
model 158.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | LOU -3.5 | LOU -1.4 | UNC +2.0 | W UNC covered |
| Total | 162.5 | 158.5 | Under 4.0 | W Under |
| Projected score | — | LOU 80 · UNC 78.5 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | LOU -1.0 | UNC -1.0 |
| 1H total | 74.1 | 77 |
| 1H projected score | LOU 37.5 · UNC 36.6 | LOU 38 · UNC 39 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| LOU | 8-2 80% | 4-6 40% | 4-6 40% |
| UNC | 7-3 70% | 6-4 60% | 6-4 60% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
LOU 1–4 UNCUNC leads · 5 games since 2021-22 · LOU 3-2 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 1, 2024-25 | UNC 70 @ LOU 83 | LOU -0.5 | LOU W |
| Jan 17, 2023-24 | LOU 70 @ UNC 86 | UNC -20.5 | LOU W |
| Jan 14, 2022-23 | UNC 80 @ LOU 59 | LOU +13.5 | UNC W |
| Feb 21, 2021-22 | LOU 63 @ UNC 70 | UNC -9.5 | LOU W |
| Feb 1, 2021-22 | UNC 90 @ LOU 83 | LOU +4 | UNC W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Louisville
27 games played
Straight up
20-7
74% wins
Against the spread
13-14
48% covers · avg +1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
11-16
41% overs · avg −3.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs SCST | W 104-45 | -35.5 | W +23.5 | 159.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 6 | vs JKST | W 106-70 | -38.5 | L −2.5 | 165.5 | O 176 |
| Nov 11 | vs UK | W 96-88 | -5.5 | W +2.5 | 173.5 | O 184 |
| Nov 15 | vs OHIO | W 106-81 | -31.5 | L −6.5 | 174.5 | O 187 |
| Nov 21 | vs CIN | W 74-64 | -8.5 | W +1.5 | 163.5 | U 138 |
| Nov 24 | vs EMU | W 87-46 | -33.5 | W +7.5 | 162.5 | U 133 |
| Nov 26 | vs NJIT | W 104-47 | -44.5 | W +12.5 | 158.5 | U 151 |
| Dec 3 | @ ARK | L 80-89 | -1.5 | L −10.5 | 166.5 | O 169 |
| Dec 6 | vs IU | W 87-78 | -3.5 | W +5.5 | 162.5 | O 165 |
| Dec 13 | vs MEM | W 99-73 | -16.5 | W +9.5 | 162.5 | O 172 |
| Dec 16 | @ TENN | L 62-83 | +4.5 | L −16.5 | 156.5 | U 145 |
| Dec 20 | vs MONT | W 94-54 | -30.5 | W +9.5 | 166.5 | U 148 |
| Dec 30 | @ CAL | W 90-70 | -7.5 | W +12.5 | 159.5 | O 160 |
| Jan 2 | @ STAN | L 76-80 | -7.5 | L −11.5 | 157.5 | U 156 |
| Jan 6 | vs DUKE | L 73-84 | +1.5 | L −9.5 | 161.5 | U 157 |
| Jan 10 | vs BC | W 75-62 | -21.5 | L −8.5 | 150.5 | U 137 |
| Jan 13 | vs UVA | L 70-79 | -4.5 | L −13.5 | 154.5 | U 149 |
| Jan 17 | @ PITT | W 100-59 | -7.5 | W +33.5 | 152.5 | O 159 |
| Jan 24 | vs VT | W 85-71 | -14.5 | L −0.5 | 160.5 | U 156 |
| Jan 26 | @DUKE | L 52-83 | +8.5 | L −22.5 | 157.5 | U 135 |
| Jan 31 | vs SMU | W 88-74 | -9.5 | W +4.5 | 163.5 | U 162 |
| Feb 4 | vs ND | W 76-65 | -19.5 | L −8.5 | 155.5 | U 141 |
| Feb 7 | @ WAKE | W 88-80 | -9.5 | L −1.5 | 162.5 | O 168 |
| Feb 9 | vs NCSU | W 118-77 | -6.5 | W +34.5 | 161.5 | O 195 |
| Feb 14 | vs BAY | W 82-71 | -7.5 | W +3.5 | 162.5 | U 153 |
| Feb 17 | @SMU | L 85-95 | -4.5 | L −14.5 | 168.5 | O 180 |
| Feb 21 | vs GT | W 87-70 | -23.5 | L −6.5 | 167.5 | U 157 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsSCST
SCSTW 104-45
+23.5
6
vsJKST
JKSTW 106-70
−2.5
11
vsUK
UKW 96-88
+2.5
15
vsOHIO
OHIOW 106-81
−6.5
21
vsCIN
CINW 74-64
+1.5
24
vsEMU
EMUW 87-46
+7.5
26
vsNJIT
NJITW 104-47
+12.5
3
@ARK
ARKL 80-89
−10.5
6
vsIU
IUW 87-78
+5.5
13
vsMEM
MEMW 99-73
+9.5
16
@TENN
TENNL 62-83
−16.5
20
vsMONT
MONTW 94-54
+9.5
30
@CAL
CALW 90-70
+12.5
2
@STAN
STANL 76-80
−11.5
6
vsDUKE
DUKEL 73-84
−9.5
10
vsBC
BCW 75-62
−8.5
13
vsUVA
UVAL 70-79
−13.5
17
@PITT
PITTW 100-59
+33.5
24
vsVT
VTW 85-71
−0.5
26
@DUKE
DUKEL 52-83
−22.5
31
vsSMU
SMUW 88-74
+4.5
4
vsND
NDW 76-65
−8.5
7
@WAKE
WAKEW 88-80
−1.5
9
vsNCSU
NCSUW 118-77
+34.5
14
vsBAY
BAYW 82-71
+3.5
17
@SMU
SMUL 85-95
−14.5
21
vsGT
GTW 87-70
−6.5
covered 13didn’t cover 14avg +1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsSCST
SCSTW 104-45
−10.5
6
vsJKST
JKSTW 106-70
+10.5
11
vsUK
UKW 96-88
+10.5
15
vsOHIO
OHIOW 106-81
+12.5
21
vsCIN
CINW 74-64
−25.5
24
vsEMU
EMUW 87-46
−29.5
26
vsNJIT
NJITW 104-47
−7.5
3
@ARK
ARKL 80-89
+2.5
6
vsIU
IUW 87-78
+2.5
13
vsMEM
MEMW 99-73
+9.5
16
@TENN
TENNL 62-83
−11.5
20
vsMONT
MONTW 94-54
−18.5
30
@CAL
CALW 90-70
+0.5
2
@STAN
STANL 76-80
−1.5
6
vsDUKE
DUKEL 73-84
−4.5
10
vsBC
BCW 75-62
−13.5
13
vsUVA
UVAL 70-79
−5.5
17
@PITT
PITTW 100-59
+6.5
24
vsVT
VTW 85-71
−4.5
26
@DUKE
DUKEL 52-83
−22.5
31
vsSMU
SMUW 88-74
−1.5
4
vsND
NDW 76-65
−14.5
7
@WAKE
WAKEW 88-80
+5.5
9
vsNCSU
NCSUW 118-77
+33.5
14
vsBAY
BAYW 82-71
−9.5
17
@SMU
SMUL 85-95
+11.5
21
vsGT
GTW 87-70
−10.5
over 11under 16avg −3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
North Carolina
27 games played
Straight up
21-6
78% wins
Against the spread
15-12
56% covers · avg +0.6 pts vs the line
Over / Under
13-14
48% overs · avg −3.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs CARK | W 94-54 | -31.5 | W +8.5 | 157.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 7 | vs KU | W 87-74 | -2.5 | W +10.5 | 159.5 | O 161 |
| Nov 11 | vs RAD | W 89-74 | -20.5 | L −5.5 | 162.5 | O 163 |
| Nov 14 | vs NCCU | W 97-53 | -34.5 | W +9.5 | 159.5 | U 150 |
| Nov 18 | vs NAVY | W 73-61 | -26.5 | L −14.5 | 160.5 | U 134 |
| Nov 25 | vs SBU | W 85-70 | -10.5 | W +4.5 | 152.5 | O 155 |
| Nov 27 | vs MSU | L 58-74 | +1.5 | L −14.5 | 152.5 | U 132 |
| Dec 2 | @UK | W 67-64 | +7.5 | W +10.5 | 163.5 | U 131 |
| Dec 7 | vs GTWN | W 81-61 | -10.5 | W +9.5 | 149.5 | U 142 |
| Dec 13 | vs UPST | W 80-62 | -29.5 | L −11.5 | 151.5 | U 142 |
| Dec 16 | vs ETSU | W 77-58 | -17.5 | W +1.5 | 150.5 | U 135 |
| Dec 20 | vs OSU | W 71-70 | -2.5 | L −1.5 | 157.5 | U 141 |
| Dec 22 | vs ECU | W 99-51 | -25.5 | W +22.5 | 144.5 | O 150 |
| Dec 30 | vs FSU | W 79-66 | -12.5 | W +0.5 | 166.5 | U 145 |
| Jan 3 | @SMU | L 83-97 | +1.5 | L −12.5 | 155.5 | O 180 |
| Jan 10 | vsWAKE | W 87-84 | -10.5 | L −7.5 | 154.5 | O 171 |
| Jan 14 | @STAN | L 90-95 | -4.5 | L −9.5 | 147.5 | O 185 |
| Jan 17 | @CAL | L 78-84 | -7.5 | L −13.5 | 151.5 | O 162 |
| Jan 21 | vsND | W 91-69 | -13.5 | W +8.5 | 149.5 | O 160 |
| Jan 24 | @UVA | W 85-80 | +6.5 | W +11.5 | 152.5 | O 165 |
| Jan 31 | @GT | W 91-75 | -9.5 | W +6.5 | 160.5 | O 166 |
| Feb 2 | vs SYR | W 87-77 | -11.5 | L −1.5 | 158.5 | O 164 |
| Feb 7 | vsDUKE | W 71-68 | +6.5 | W +9.5 | 152.5 | U 139 |
| Feb 10 | @ MIA | L 66-75 | +1.5 | L −7.5 | 156.5 | U 141 |
| Feb 14 | vsPITT | W 79-65 | -11.5 | W +2.5 | 142.5 | O 144 |
| Feb 17 | @NCSU | L 58-82 | +8.5 | L −15.5 | 156.5 | U 140 |
| Feb 21 | @SYR | W 77-64 | +2.5 | W +15.5 | 154.5 | U 141 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsCARK
CARKW 94-54
+8.5
7
vsKU
KUW 87-74
+10.5
11
vsRAD
RADW 89-74
−5.5
14
vsNCCU
NCCUW 97-53
+9.5
18
vsNAVY
NAVYW 73-61
−14.5
25
vsSBU
SBUW 85-70
+4.5
27
vsMSU
MSUL 58-74
−14.5
2
@UK
UKW 67-64
+10.5
7
vsGTWN
GTWNW 81-61
+9.5
13
vsUPST
UPSTW 80-62
−11.5
16
vsETSU
ETSUW 77-58
+1.5
20
vsOSU
OSUW 71-70
−1.5
22
vsECU
ECUW 99-51
+22.5
30
vsFSU
FSUW 79-66
+0.5
3
@SMU
SMUL 83-97
−12.5
10
vsWAKE
WAKEW 87-84
−7.5
14
@STAN
STANL 90-95
−9.5
17
@CAL
CALL 78-84
−13.5
21
vsND
NDW 91-69
+8.5
24
@UVA
UVAW 85-80
+11.5
31
@GT
GTW 91-75
+6.5
2
vsSYR
SYRW 87-77
−1.5
7
vsDUKE
DUKEW 71-68
+9.5
10
@MIA
MIAL 66-75
−7.5
14
vsPITT
PITTW 79-65
+2.5
17
@NCSU
NCSUL 58-82
−15.5
21
@SYR
SYRW 77-64
+15.5
covered 15didn’t cover 12avg +0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsCARK
CARKW 94-54
−9.5
7
vsKU
KUW 87-74
+1.5
11
vsRAD
RADW 89-74
+0.5
14
vsNCCU
NCCUW 97-53
−9.5
18
vsNAVY
NAVYW 73-61
−26.5
25
vsSBU
SBUW 85-70
+2.5
27
vsMSU
MSUL 58-74
−20.5
2
@UK
UKW 67-64
−32.5
7
vsGTWN
GTWNW 81-61
−7.5
13
vsUPST
UPSTW 80-62
−9.5
16
vsETSU
ETSUW 77-58
−15.5
20
vsOSU
OSUW 71-70
−16.5
22
vsECU
ECUW 99-51
+5.5
30
vsFSU
FSUW 79-66
−21.5
3
@SMU
SMUL 83-97
+24.5
10
vsWAKE
WAKEW 87-84
+16.5
14
@STAN
STANL 90-95
+37.5
17
@CAL
CALL 78-84
+10.5
21
vsND
NDW 91-69
+10.5
24
@UVA
UVAW 85-80
+12.5
31
@GT
GTW 91-75
+5.5
2
vsSYR
SYRW 87-77
+5.5
7
vsDUKE
DUKEW 71-68
−13.5
10
@MIA
MIAL 66-75
−15.5
14
vsPITT
PITTW 79-65
+1.5
17
@NCSU
NCSUL 58-82
−16.5
21
@SYR
SYRW 77-64
−13.5
over 13under 14avg −3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Louisville
20-7 overall · 9-5 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Georgia Tech87–70
- L@ SMU85–95
- Wvs Baylor82–71
- Wvs NC State118–77
- W@ Wake Forest88–80
2 days since their last game.
North Carolina
21-6 overall · 9-5 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ Syracuse77–64
- L@ NC State58–82
- Wvs Pitt79–65
- L@ Miami66–75
- Wvs Duke71–68
2 days since their last game.