Haas Pavilion · at California · Conference game
Closing line
LOU -7.5✓ LOU covered by 12.5
LOU -7.5✓ LOU covered by 12.5Closing total159.5Over by 0.5
| LOU | This season | CAL |
|---|---|---|
| 10-2 | Record | 11-1 |
| 8-4 | ATS | 7-5 |
| 6-6 | O/U | 4-8 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: LOU 83–73 CAL · ✓ LOU (80%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| LOU | 48 | 42 | 90 |
| CAL | 34 | 36 | 70 |
1st half: LOU 48, CAL 34 (LOU by 14). The model had LOU by 5.9 and a total of 73.3 (actual 82).
Team stats
| LOU | CAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 32-69 46% | Field goals | 20-59 34% |
| 14-37 38% | 3-pointers | 9-26 35% |
| 12-14 86% | Free throws | 21-27 78% |
| 50 15 off | Rebounds | 31 8 off |
| 19 | Assists | 14 |
| 4 | Steals | 6 |
| 5 | Blocks | 4 |
| 10 | Turnovers | 8 |
| 25 | Fouls | 16 |
| 36 | Points in paint | 16 |
| 5 | Fast-break points | 12 |
Players
| LOU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaac McKneely G | 35 | 11 | 1 | 3 | 4-11 | 3-9 |
| J'Vonne Hadley G | 31 | 11 | 9 | 3 | 4-7 | 1-2 |
| Adrian Wooley G | 27 | 21 | 4 | 2 | 9-14 | 3-7 |
| Sananda Fru F | 26 | 13 | 14 | 2 | 4-8 | 0-1 |
| Ryan Conwell G | 25 | 26 | 4 | 4 | 8-16 | 6-13 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Kobe Rodgers G | 22 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 1-4 | 1-3 |
| Khani Rooths F | 18 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 2-4 | 0-0 |
| Aly Khalifa C | 13 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0-4 | 0-2 |
| Vangelis Zougris F | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Will Hanke, Mouhamed Camara, Kasean Pryor, Cole Sherman, Spencer Legg, London Johnson, Mikel Brown Jr.
| CAL | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Bell F | 36 | 20 | 1 | 2 | 5-11 | 3-7 |
| Dai Dai Ames G | 33 | 11 | 2 | 4 | 3-12 | 1-4 |
| John Camden F | 32 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 1-10 | 1-7 |
| Justin Pippen G | 31 | 17 | 3 | 5 | 5-14 | 3-7 |
| Lee Dort F | 29 | 12 | 9 | 0 | 3-6 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Semetri Carr G | 18 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2-4 | 0-0 |
| Milos Ilic C | 11 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Nolan Dorsey G | 10 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
Did not play: Dhiaukuei Manyiel Dut, Luke Butler, Jorell Clark, BJ Fisher, Mantas Kocanas, Stephon Marbury II, Rytis Petraitis, DeJuan Campbell, Sammie Yeanay, Jovani Ruff
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Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenLOU -5.5
2 → LOU
CloseLOU -7.5
2 pts toward LOU
Total
Open158.5
▲ 1
Close159.5
Up 1 since the open
Moneyline
LOU -325 · CAL +260
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened LOU -5.5 · closed LOU -7.5 · moved 2 toward LOUmodel LOU -9.5
model LOU -9.5
Opened 158.5 · closed 159.5 · moved 1 upmodel 156.5
model 156.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | LOU -7.5 | LOU -9.6 | LOU +2.1 | W LOU covered |
| Total | 159.5 | 156.5 | Under 3.0 | L Over |
| Projected score | — | LOU 83.1 · CAL 73.4 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | LOU -5.9 | LOU -14.0 |
| 1H total | 73.3 | 82 |
| 1H projected score | LOU 39.6 · CAL 33.7 | LOU 48 · CAL 34 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| LOU | 8-2 80% | 7-3 70% | 5-5 50% |
| CAL | 9-1 90% | 6-4 60% | 4-6 40% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
LOU 1–0 CALLOU leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · LOU 1-0 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 5, 2024-25 | CAL 68 @ LOU 85 | LOU -14.5 | LOU W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Louisville
12 games played
Straight up
10-2
83% wins
Against the spread
8-4
67% covers · avg +3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
6-6
50% overs · avg −4.6 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs SCST | W 104-45 | -35.5 | W +23.5 | 159.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 6 | vs JKST | W 106-70 | -38.5 | L −2.5 | 165.5 | O 176 |
| Nov 11 | vs UK | W 96-88 | -5.5 | W +2.5 | 173.5 | O 184 |
| Nov 15 | vs OHIO | W 106-81 | -31.5 | L −6.5 | 174.5 | O 187 |
| Nov 21 | vs CIN | W 74-64 | -8.5 | W +1.5 | 163.5 | U 138 |
| Nov 24 | vs EMU | W 87-46 | -33.5 | W +7.5 | 162.5 | U 133 |
| Nov 26 | vs NJIT | W 104-47 | -44.5 | W +12.5 | 158.5 | U 151 |
| Dec 3 | @ ARK | L 80-89 | -1.5 | L −10.5 | 166.5 | O 169 |
| Dec 6 | vs IU | W 87-78 | -3.5 | W +5.5 | 162.5 | O 165 |
| Dec 13 | vs MEM | W 99-73 | -16.5 | W +9.5 | 162.5 | O 172 |
| Dec 16 | @ TENN | L 62-83 | +4.5 | L −16.5 | 156.5 | U 145 |
| Dec 20 | vs MONT | W 94-54 | -30.5 | W +9.5 | 166.5 | U 148 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsSCST
SCSTW 104-45
+23.5
6
vsJKST
JKSTW 106-70
−2.5
11
vsUK
UKW 96-88
+2.5
15
vsOHIO
OHIOW 106-81
−6.5
21
vsCIN
CINW 74-64
+1.5
24
vsEMU
EMUW 87-46
+7.5
26
vsNJIT
NJITW 104-47
+12.5
3
@ARK
ARKL 80-89
−10.5
6
vsIU
IUW 87-78
+5.5
13
vsMEM
MEMW 99-73
+9.5
16
@TENN
TENNL 62-83
−16.5
20
vsMONT
MONTW 94-54
+9.5
covered 8didn’t cover 4avg +3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsSCST
SCSTW 104-45
−10.5
6
vsJKST
JKSTW 106-70
+10.5
11
vsUK
UKW 96-88
+10.5
15
vsOHIO
OHIOW 106-81
+12.5
21
vsCIN
CINW 74-64
−25.5
24
vsEMU
EMUW 87-46
−29.5
26
vsNJIT
NJITW 104-47
−7.5
3
@ARK
ARKL 80-89
+2.5
6
vsIU
IUW 87-78
+2.5
13
vsMEM
MEMW 99-73
+9.5
16
@TENN
TENNL 62-83
−11.5
20
vsMONT
MONTW 94-54
−18.5
over 6under 6avg −4.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
California
12 games played
Straight up
11-1
92% wins
Against the spread
7-5
58% covers · avg +4.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
4-8
33% overs · avg −0.8 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs CSUB | W 87-60 | -15.5 | W +11.5 | 147.5 | U 147 |
| Nov 6 | vs WRST | W 77-67 | -14.5 | L −4.5 | 148.5 | U 144 |
| Nov 10 | vs CSUF | W 93-65 | -22.5 | W +5.5 | 162.5 | U 158 |
| Nov 13 | @ KSU | L 96-99 | +6.5 | W +3.5 | 164.5 | O 195 |
| Nov 18 | vs PRES | W 67-57 | -10.5 | L −0.5 | 124.5 | U 124 |
| Nov 21 | vs SAC | W 91-67 | -21.5 | W +2.5 | 154.5 | O 158 |
| Nov 25 | vs UCLA | W 80-72 | +7.5 | W +15.5 | 143.5 | O 152 |
| Dec 2 | vs UTAH | W 79-72 | -7.5 | L −0.5 | 152.5 | U 151 |
| Dec 6 | vs PAC | W 67-61 | -7.5 | L −1.5 | 144.5 | U 128 |
| Dec 13 | vs NWST | W 79-70 | -19.5 | L −10.5 | 145.5 | O 149 |
| Dec 19 | vs MORG | W 97-50 | -26.5 | W +20.5 | 151.5 | U 147 |
| Dec 21 | vs COLU | W 74-56 | -8.5 | W +9.5 | 153.5 | U 130 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsCSUB
CSUBW 87-60
+11.5
6
vsWRST
WRSTW 77-67
−4.5
10
vsCSUF
CSUFW 93-65
+5.5
13
@KSU
KSUL 96-99
+3.5
18
vsPRES
PRESW 67-57
−0.5
21
vsSAC
SACW 91-67
+2.5
25
vsUCLA
UCLAW 80-72
+15.5
2
vsUTAH
UTAHW 79-72
−0.5
6
vsPAC
PACW 67-61
−1.5
13
vsNWST
NWSTW 79-70
−10.5
19
vsMORG
MORGW 97-50
+20.5
21
vsCOLU
COLUW 74-56
+9.5
covered 7didn’t cover 5avg +4.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsCSUB
CSUBW 87-60
−0.5
6
vsWRST
WRSTW 77-67
−4.5
10
vsCSUF
CSUFW 93-65
−4.5
13
@KSU
KSUL 96-99
+30.5
18
vsPRES
PRESW 67-57
−0.5
21
vsSAC
SACW 91-67
+3.5
25
vsUCLA
UCLAW 80-72
+8.5
2
vsUTAH
UTAHW 79-72
−1.5
6
vsPAC
PACW 67-61
−16.5
13
vsNWST
NWSTW 79-70
+3.5
19
vsMORG
MORGW 97-50
−4.5
21
vsCOLU
COLUW 74-56
−23.5
over 4under 8avg −0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Louisville
10-2 overall · 0-0 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Montana94–54
- L@ Tennessee62–83
- Wvs Memphis99–73
- Wvs Indiana87–78
- L@ Arkansas80–89
A week or more of rest.
California
11-1 overall · 0-0 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Columbia74–56
- Wvs Morgan St97–50
- Wvs N'Western St79–70
- Wvs Pacific67–61
- Wvs Utah79–72
A week or more of rest.