Haas Pavilion · at California
Closing line
CAL -26.5✓ CAL covered by 20.5
CAL -26.5✓ CAL covered by 20.5Closing total151.5Under by 4.5
 MORG | This season | CAL |
|---|---|---|
| 1-8 | Record | 9-1 |
| 5-4 | ATS | 5-5 |
| 4-5 | O/U | 4-6 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: MORG 65–91 CAL · ✓ CAL (99%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MORG | 23 | 27 | 50 |
| CAL | 50 | 47 | 97 |
1st half: MORG 23, CAL 50 (CAL by 27). The model had CAL by 15.6 and a total of 73.0 (actual 73).
Team stats
| MORG | CAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 19-53 36% | Field goals | 32-54 59% |
| 1-17 6% | 3-pointers | 11-20 55% |
| 11-19 58% | Free throws | 22-23 96% |
| 24 6 off | Rebounds | 36 5 off |
| 11 | Assists | 19 |
| 3 | Steals | 12 |
| 3 | Blocks | 4 |
| 14 | Turnovers | 9 |
| 16 | Fouls | 17 |
| 24 | Points in paint | 42 |
| 0 | Fast-break points | 21 |
Players
| MORG | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Lawson G | 37 | 11 | 4 | 8 | 3-12 | 0-3 |
| Christian Meeks F | 32 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 2-6 | 0-0 |
| Eugene Alvin F | 26 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 2-7 | 0-3 |
| Christian Oliver C | 22 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 6-9 | 1-2 |
| Alfred Worrell Jr. G | 21 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 2-7 | 0-3 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Walter Peggs Jr. G | 16 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0-4 | 0-4 |
| Manok Lual F | 13 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| David Bumpass G | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Matar Wade F | 12 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Dallas James C | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Marland Harris F | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Breon Barnett G | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Trent Edwards, Jayden Socka, Elijah Davis
| CAL | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Bell F | 37 | 28 | 6 | 2 | 8-11 | 4-6 |
| Semetri Carr G | 36 | 17 | 6 | 9 | 5-10 | 0-3 |
| John Camden F | 32 | 23 | 8 | 4 | 8-12 | 5-7 |
| Dai Dai Ames G | 26 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 3-9 | 1-3 |
| Lee Dort F | 23 | 12 | 7 | 0 | 5-6 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Nolan Dorsey G | 21 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Milos Ilic C | 11 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Mantas Kocanas C | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Stephon Marbury II G | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Dhiaukuei Manyiel Dut F | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| BJ Fisher G | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Luke Butler G | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Justin Pippen, Rytis Petraitis, Jorell Clark, DeJuan Campbell, Sammie Yeanay, Jovani Ruff
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketCAL -26.5
ModelCAL -26.2
Model edgeMORG +0.3
L CAL covered
Total
Market151.5
Model156.0
Model edgeOver 4.5
L Under
Projected score
MORG 64.9 · CAL 91.1
MORG 50 · CAL 97
Win probability
CAL 99%
1st half
Spread
CAL -15.6
CAL -27.0
Total
73.0
73 points
Projected score
MORG 28.7 · CAL 44.3
MORG 23 · CAL 50
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenCAL -26.5
no move
CloseCAL -26.5
No change since the open
Total
Open151.5
no move
Close151.5
No change since the open
Moneyline
MORG +2200 · CAL -8000
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened CAL -26.5 · unchangedmodel CAL -26
model CAL -26
Opened 151.5 · unchangedmodel 156
model 156
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MORGlast 9 | 1-8 11% | 5-4 56% | 4-5 44% |
| CAL | 9-1 90% | 5-5 50% | 4-6 40% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Morgan St
9 games played
Straight up
1-8
11% wins
Against the spread
5-4
56% covers · avg −3.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
4-5
44% overs · avg −0.4 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ GTWN | L 70-87 | +27.5 | W +10.5 | 154.5 | O 157 |
| Nov 11 | vs UMBC | L 79-81 | +4.5 | W +2.5 | 162.5 | U 160 |
| Nov 15 | @ MERC | L 72-86 | +6.5 | L −7.5 | 146.5 | O 158 |
| Nov 18 | vs NCAT | L 73-79 | +2.5 | L −3.5 | 161.5 | U 152 |
| Nov 21 | @ ODU | L 56-88 | +11.5 | L −20.5 | 156.5 | U 144 |
| Nov 25 | vs DREX | L 66-71 | +5.5 | W +0.5 | 143.5 | U 137 |
| Dec 6 | vs LONG | L 80-84 | +5.5 | W +1.5 | 154.5 | O 164 |
| Dec 9 | @ DEP | L 49-92 | +21.5 | L −21.5 | 150.5 | U 141 |
| Dec 13 | vs NIA | W 81-73 | -1.5 | W +6.5 | 140.5 | O 154 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@GTWN
GTWNL 70-87
+10.5
11
vsUMBC
UMBCL 79-81
+2.5
15
@MERC
MERCL 72-86
−7.5
18
vsNCAT
NCATL 73-79
−3.5
21
@ODU
ODUL 56-88
−20.5
25
vsDREX
DREXL 66-71
+0.5
6
vsLONG
LONGL 80-84
+1.5
9
@DEP
DEPL 49-92
−21.5
13
vsNIA
NIAW 81-73
+6.5
covered 5didn’t cover 4avg −3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@GTWN
GTWNL 70-87
+2.5
11
vsUMBC
UMBCL 79-81
−2.5
15
@MERC
MERCL 72-86
+11.5
18
vsNCAT
NCATL 73-79
−9.5
21
@ODU
ODUL 56-88
−12.5
25
vsDREX
DREXL 66-71
−6.5
6
vsLONG
LONGL 80-84
+9.5
9
@DEP
DEPL 49-92
−9.5
13
vsNIA
NIAW 81-73
+13.5
over 4under 5avg −0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
California
10 games played
Straight up
9-1
90% wins
Against the spread
5-5
50% covers · avg +2.1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
4-6
40% overs · avg +1.8 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs CSUB | W 87-60 | -15.5 | W +11.5 | 147.5 | U 147 |
| Nov 6 | vs WRST | W 77-67 | -14.5 | L −4.5 | 148.5 | U 144 |
| Nov 10 | vs CSUF | W 93-65 | -22.5 | W +5.5 | 162.5 | U 158 |
| Nov 13 | @ KSU | L 96-99 | +6.5 | W +3.5 | 164.5 | O 195 |
| Nov 18 | vs PRES | W 67-57 | -10.5 | L −0.5 | 124.5 | U 124 |
| Nov 21 | vs SAC | W 91-67 | -21.5 | W +2.5 | 154.5 | O 158 |
| Nov 25 | vs UCLA | W 80-72 | +7.5 | W +15.5 | 143.5 | O 152 |
| Dec 2 | vs UTAH | W 79-72 | -7.5 | L −0.5 | 152.5 | U 151 |
| Dec 6 | vs PAC | W 67-61 | -7.5 | L −1.5 | 144.5 | U 128 |
| Dec 13 | vs NWST | W 79-70 | -19.5 | L −10.5 | 145.5 | O 149 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsCSUB
CSUBW 87-60
+11.5
6
vsWRST
WRSTW 77-67
−4.5
10
vsCSUF
CSUFW 93-65
+5.5
13
@KSU
KSUL 96-99
+3.5
18
vsPRES
PRESW 67-57
−0.5
21
vsSAC
SACW 91-67
+2.5
25
vsUCLA
UCLAW 80-72
+15.5
2
vsUTAH
UTAHW 79-72
−0.5
6
vsPAC
PACW 67-61
−1.5
13
vsNWST
NWSTW 79-70
−10.5
covered 5didn’t cover 5avg +2.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsCSUB
CSUBW 87-60
−0.5
6
vsWRST
WRSTW 77-67
−4.5
10
vsCSUF
CSUFW 93-65
−4.5
13
@KSU
KSUL 96-99
+30.5
18
vsPRES
PRESW 67-57
−0.5
21
vsSAC
SACW 91-67
+3.5
25
vsUCLA
UCLAW 80-72
+8.5
2
vsUTAH
UTAHW 79-72
−1.5
6
vsPAC
PACW 67-61
−16.5
13
vsNWST
NWSTW 79-70
+3.5
over 4under 6avg +1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Morgan St
1-8 overall · 0-0 in conference · Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Niagara81–73
- L@ DePaul49–92
- Lvs Longwood80–84
- Lvs Drexel66–71
- L@ Old Dominion56–88
6 days since their last game.
California
9-1 overall · 0-0 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs N'Western St79–70
- Wvs Pacific67–61
- Wvs Utah79–72
- Wvs UCLA80–72
- Wvs Sacramento St91–67
6 days since their last game.