Portland Trail Blazers at Denver Nuggets: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Nov 2, 9:00 PM ETBall Arena · at Nuggets · Conference game

LineDEN -4.5no move

Total231.5no move

Season records: Trail Blazers and Nuggets
POR	This season	DEN
4-1	Record	3-2
3-2	ATS	2-3
2-3	O/U	3-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects POR 116–116 · win probability POR 51%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

Line

DEN -4.5

no move since the open

Total

231.5

model 232.4 · Over by 1

Model edge

POR by 5

model vs market

Public on the spread

62% DEN

67% of the money

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: POR has more of the edges

POR 3, DEN 2 · 2026-27 so far

PORBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: POR 27.6%, DEN 27.5%. Defensive: POR 77.3%, DEN 70.5%

PORBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: POR 56.2 and allows 51.3; DEN 54.7 and allows 54.2

Context

Schedule so far

POR has played the 27th-hardest schedule, DEN the 18th. A record against a soft schedule means less

PORSmall

POR offense vs DEN defense

Offense 10th of 30 against a defense 19th, on the model’s ratings

DENSmall

Home court

DEN at home. This season: DEN 1-1 at home, POR 3-0 away

DENSmall

Rest

POR 2 days since its last game, DEN 3

Context

Tempo

About 103 possessions: POR plays 103.5 a game (14th fastest), DEN 102.1 (21st). Faster games mean more points

Even

Recent form

Last 5: POR 3-2 ATS, margin +11.4; DEN 2-3 ATS, margin -1.2

Even

DEN offense vs POR defense

Offense 8th of 30 against a defense 11th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: POR 35.9, DEN 31.3. Allowed: POR 27.8, DEN 21.5

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: POR 14.6%, DEN 16.4%. Forced: POR 14.8%, DEN 15.9%

Even

Three-pointers

POR hits 35.3% and allows 32.1%; DEN hits 37.4% and allows 35.0%. Threes are 51.5% and 40.9% of their shots

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: POR 100%, DEN 100%. Transfers in: POR 0, DEN 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

How games like this went

NBA games since 2023-24, closing lines

Situation	Games	Favorite won	Favorite covered	Went over
Home favorites of 3 to 6.5	873	63%	49%	52%
Conference games at this spread	970	62%	49%	52%
Games with a total of 230 to 234.5	744	72%	52%	48%

A bet at standard prices needs 52.4% to break even, and most situations sit near 50%. Past rates, not a prediction.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
POR WLWLW	3-2	60%	2-1	1-0
DEN LLLWW	2-3	40%	0-2	2-2

Venue/role: POR away, as underdog; DEN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
POR UOOUU	2-3	40%	4-1
DEN UOOUO	3-2	60%	3-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PORlast 5	4-1 80%	3-2 60%	2-3 40%
DENlast 5	3-2 60%	2-3 40%	3-2 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Trail Blazers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 4	@ PHX	W124–83WU
Nov 6	@ LAL	W136–129WO
Nov 7	vs SA	L95–114LU

Nuggets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 4	vs TOR	W121–115LU
Nov 7	@ IND	W135–120WO
Nov 9	@ HOU	W129–93WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 20 since 2021-22

POR 5–15 DENDEN leads · 20 games since 2021-22 · DEN has won the last 3 meetings · POR 10-10 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Apr 6, 2025-26	POR 132 @ DEN 137	DEN -6.5	POR W
Mar 22, 2025-26	POR 112 @ DEN 128	DEN -8.5	DEN W
Feb 20, 2025-26	DEN 157 @ POR 103	POR +1.5	DEN W
Oct 31, 2025-26	DEN 107 @ POR 109	POR +5.5	POR W
Mar 21, 2024-25	DEN 109 @ POR 128	POR +1.5	POR W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Trail Blazers

5 games played

Straight up

4-1

80% wins

Against the spread

3-2

60% covers · avg +6.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-3

40% overs · avg −3.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-180%

W W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-260%

W L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-340%

U O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsPHX	W 124-83	-3.5	W +37.5	232.5	U 207
Oct 23	@SAC	W 128-120	-9.5	L −1.5	231.5	O 248
Oct 27	@LAL	W 136-129	+1.5	W +8.5	234.5	O 265
Oct 29	vsMEM	L 103-124	-7.5	L −28.5	233.5	U 227
Oct 31	@UTAH	W 112-90	-6.5	W +15.5	232.5	U 202

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PHX

W 124-83

+37.5

SAC

W 128-120

−1.5

LAL

W 136-129

+8.5

MEM

L 103-124

−28.5

UTAH

W 112-90

+15.5

covered 3didn’t cover 2avg +6.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PHX

W 124-83

−25.5

SAC

W 128-120

+16.5

LAL

W 136-129

+30.5

MEM

L 103-124

−6.5

UTAH

W 112-90

−30.5

over 2under 3avg −3.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Nuggets

5 games played

Straight up

3-2

60% wins

Against the spread

2-3

40% covers · avg −5.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-2

60% overs · avg −7.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-260%

L W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-340%

L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-260%

U O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 22	@OKC	L 84-96	+7.5	L −4.5	236.5	U 180
Oct 24	vsNO	W 141-135	-11.5	L −5.5	239.5	O 276
Oct 26	vsGS	L 114-134	-6.5	L −26.5	236.5	O 248
Oct 28	@NO	W 104-91	-4.5	W +8.5	241.5	U 195
Oct 30	@PHX	W 127-120	-4.5	W +2.5	231.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

OKC

L 84-96

−4.5

W 141-135

−5.5

L 114-134

−26.5

W 104-91

+8.5

PHX

W 127-120

+2.5

covered 2didn’t cover 3avg −5.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

OKC

L 84-96

−56.5

W 141-135

+36.5

L 114-134

+11.5

W 104-91

−46.5

PHX

W 127-120

+15.5

over 3under 2avg −7.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Nuggets has the better starters

Position by position: Trail Blazers 1, Nuggets 2, even 2

Trail BlazersBetterNuggets

G D. Lillard19.2 pts · 4 reb · 3.6 ast Score 89

PORBig

G J. Murray25.8 pts · 5.6 reb · 5.6 ast Score 40

G S. Henderson8.8 pts · 2.4 reb · 1.4 ast Score 34

DENSmall

G C. Braun15.4 pts · 4.2 reb · 2 ast Score 66

F D. Avdija23 pts · 6.8 reb · 5.6 ast Score 82

Even

F A. Gordon12.8 pts · 6 reb · 3 ast Score 74

F T. Camara15.2 pts · 2.4 reb · 1.2 ast Score 44

DENBig

F C. Johnson8.5 pts · 5.5 reb · 2 ast Score 98

C D. Clingan8.6 pts · 8.8 reb · 1.4 ast Score 74

Even

C N. Jokic21.2 pts · 9.8 reb · 9.2 ast Score 86

Trail BlazersBetterNuggets

POR offense10th of 30 · +1.4

PORSmall

DEN defense19th of 30 · -0.9

POR defense11th of 30 · +1.8

Even

DEN offense8th of 30 · +2.5

Backcourt+11.6 · 2 players

PORBig

Backcourt+7.7 · 2 players

Frontcourt+16.7 · 3 players

DENBig

Frontcourt+35.7 · 3 players

Bench+15.6 · 5 players

PORBig

Bench-4.0 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestPOR betterDEN betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Trail Blazers

Guards

D. Lillard29 minS. Henderson21 minJ. Holiday25 minS. Cissoko22 minV. Krejci11 minC. Youngblood6 min

Forwards

D. Avdija31 minT. Camara26 minJ. Tonje8 min

Centers

D. Clingan22 minM. Potter19 minR. Williams17 minB. Carlson12 minY. Hansen10 min

Out

J. MorantOut

Nuggets

Guards

J. Murray38 minC. Braun36 minD. DeRozan26 minR. Nembhard20 minT. Jones10 min

Forwards

A. Gordon30 minC. Johnson23 minT. Brazile23 minC. Whitmore17 minB. Hopkins17 minM. Bagley12 min

Centers

N. Jokic37 min

Out

A. DialloOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

POR120.6 #4

DEN114.0 #15

Points per possession

POR1.16 #5

DEN1.13 #9

Pace (possessions)

POR103.5 #14

DEN102.1 #21

Shooting

Effective FG%

POR56.2 #4

DEN54.7 #11

3-point %

POR35.3 #12

DEN37.4 #7

3-point attempt rate

POR51.5 #1

DEN40.9 #22

Free throw rate

POR35.9 #3

DEN31.3 #11

Possessions

Turnover rate

POR14.6 #9

DEN16.4 #21

Offensive rebound rate

POR27.6 #14

DEN27.5 #15

Assists per game

POR26.2 #17

DEN26.8 #14

Defense

Points allowed

POR109.2 #10

DEN115.2 #18

Points allowed per possession

POR1.06 #10

DEN1.12 #20

Opponent effective FG%

POR51.3 #8

DEN54.2 #20

Opponent 3-point %

POR32.1 #8

DEN35.0 #15

Turnovers forced

POR14.8 #20

DEN15.9 #11

Defensive rebound rate

POR77.3 #3

DEN70.5 #22

Steals per game

POR8.6 #18

DEN10.2 #5

Blocks per game

POR4.2 #21

DEN4.4 #18

POR		DEN
Scoring
120.6 #4	Points per game	114.0 #15
1.16 #5	Points per possession	1.13 #9
103.5 #14	Pace (possessions)	102.1 #21
Shooting
56.2 #4	Effective FG%	54.7 #11
35.3 #12	3-point %	37.4 #7
51.5 #1	3-point attempt rate	40.9 #22
35.9 #3	Free throw rate	31.3 #11
Possessions
14.6 #9	Turnover rate	16.4 #21
27.6 #14	Offensive rebound rate	27.5 #15
26.2 #17	Assists per game	26.8 #14
Defense
109.2 #10	Points allowed	115.2 #18
1.06 #10	Points allowed per possession	1.12 #20
51.3 #8	Opponent effective FG%	54.2 #20
32.1 #8	Opponent 3-point %	35.0 #15
14.8 #20	Turnovers forced	15.9 #11
77.3 #3	Defensive rebound rate	70.5 #22
8.6 #18	Steals per game	10.2 #5
4.2 #21	Blocks per game	4.4 #18

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Trail Blazers

4-1 overall · 4-1 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Jazz112–90
Lvs Grizzlies103–124
W@ Lakers136–129
W@ Kings128–120
Wvs Suns124–83

2 days since their last game.

Nuggets

3-2 overall · 3-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Suns127–120
W@ Pelicans104–91
Lvs Warriors114–134
Wvs Pelicans141–135
L@ Thunder84–96

3 days since their last game.

Trail Blazers @ Nuggets

What could decide it: POR has more of the edges

How games like this went

Market vs model

Market

Public betting

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Trail Blazers

Nuggets

Nuggets has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Trail Blazers

Nuggets