Denver Nuggets at Indiana Pacers: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 7, 5:00 PM ETArena CDMX · at Pacers

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Nuggets and Pacers
DEN	This season	IND
3-2	Record	2-5
2-3	ATS	3-4
3-2	O/U	3-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects DEN 120–114 · win probability DEN 66%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 234.1

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: DEN has more of the edges

DEN 4, IND 1 · 2026-27 so far

DENBig

DEN offense vs IND defense

Offense 8th of 30 against a defense 25th, on the model’s ratings

DENBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: DEN 31.3, IND 31.2. Allowed: DEN 21.5, IND 32.1

Context

Schedule so far

DEN has played the 18th-hardest schedule, IND the 29th. A record against a soft schedule means less

DENSmall

Three-pointers

DEN hits 37.4% and allows 35.0%; IND hits 34.1% and allows 35.9%. Threes are 40.9% and 43.1% of their shots

DENSmall

IND offense vs DEN defense

Offense 24th of 30 against a defense 19th, on the model’s ratings

INDSmall

Home court

IND at home. This season: IND 0-3 at home, DEN 2-1 away

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: DEN 27.5%, IND 23.1%. Defensive: DEN 70.5%, IND 72.7%

Context

Tempo

About 103 possessions: DEN plays 102.1 a game (21st fastest), IND 103.1 (15th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: DEN 16.4%, IND 14.8%. Forced: DEN 15.9%, IND 14.9%

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: DEN 54.7 and allows 54.2; IND 53.9 and allows 53.9

Even

Recent form

Last 5: DEN 2-3 ATS, margin -1.2; IND 2-3 ATS, margin -2.8

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: DEN 100%, IND 100%. Transfers in: DEN 0, IND 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DEN LLLWW	2-3	40%	2-1	—
IND WLWLL	3-4	43%	1-2	—

Venue/role: DEN away; IND home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
DEN UOOUO	3-2	60%	3-2
IND OUUOU	3-4	43%	2-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DENlast 5	3-2 60%	2-3 40%	3-2 60%
INDlast 7	2-5 29%	3-4 43%	3-4 43%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Nuggets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 9	@ HOU	W129–93WU
Nov 11	@ MEM	W136–119LO
Nov 14	@ NO	W104–91WU

Pacers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 9	@ DAL	L105–121LU
Nov 11	vs WSH	L118–131LO
Nov 13	vs NY	L110–136LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

DEN 9–1 INDDEN leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · DEN has won the last 2 meetings · DEN 6-4 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 3, 2025-26	DEN 135 @ IND 120	IND +8.5	DEN W
Nov 8, 2025-26	IND 100 @ DEN 117	DEN -9.5	DEN W
Apr 6, 2024-25	IND 125 @ DEN 120	DEN -6.5	IND W
Feb 24, 2024-25	DEN 125 @ IND 116	IND +3.5	DEN W
Jan 23, 2023-24	DEN 114 @ IND 109	IND +4.5	DEN W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Nuggets

5 games played

Straight up

3-2

60% wins

Against the spread

2-3

40% covers · avg −5.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-2

60% overs · avg −7.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-260%

L W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-340%

L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-260%

U O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 22	@OKC	L 84-96	+7.5	L −4.5	236.5	U 180
Oct 24	vsNO	W 141-135	-11.5	L −5.5	239.5	O 276
Oct 26	vsGS	L 114-134	-6.5	L −26.5	236.5	O 248
Oct 28	@NO	W 104-91	-4.5	W +8.5	241.5	U 195
Oct 30	@PHX	W 127-120	-4.5	W +2.5	231.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

OKC

L 84-96

−4.5

W 141-135

−5.5

L 114-134

−26.5

W 104-91

+8.5

PHX

W 127-120

+2.5

covered 2didn’t cover 3avg −5.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

OKC

L 84-96

−56.5

W 141-135

+36.5

L 114-134

+11.5

W 104-91

−46.5

PHX

W 127-120

+15.5

over 3under 2avg −7.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Pacers

7 games played

Straight up

2-5

29% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg −4.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-4

43% overs · avg −6.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-529%

W L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-443%

W L W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-443%

O U O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@NO	W 123-120	-2.5	W +0.5	238.5	O 243
Oct 23	vsDAL	L 105-121	-7.5	L −23.5	241.5	U 226
Oct 25	@BKN	W 136-109	-5.5	W +21.5	231.5	O 245
Oct 26	@MIL	L 102-110	-3.5	L −11.5	239.5	U 212
Oct 28	vsPHI	L 109-114	+7.5	W +2.5	234.5	U 223
Oct 30	@MIA	L 125-145	+8.5	L −11.5	236.5	O 270
Nov 1	vsBKN	L 90-98	-3.5	L −11.5	230.5	U 188

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 123-120

+0.5

DAL

L 105-121

−23.5

BKN

W 136-109

+21.5

MIL

L 102-110

−11.5

PHI

L 109-114

+2.5

MIA

L 125-145

−11.5

BKN

L 90-98

−11.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg −4.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 123-120

+4.5

DAL

L 105-121

−15.5

BKN

W 136-109

+13.5

MIL

L 102-110

−27.5

PHI

L 109-114

−11.5

MIA

L 125-145

+33.5

BKN

L 90-98

−42.5

over 3under 4avg −6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Nuggets has the better starters

Position by position: Nuggets 3, Pacers 1, even 1

NuggetsBetterPacers

G J. Murray25.8 pts · 5.6 reb · 5.6 ast Score 40

INDSmall

G A. Nembhard18.5 pts · 2.2 reb · 7.3 ast Score 70

G C. Braun15.4 pts · 4.2 reb · 2 ast Score 66

DENSmall

G K. Oubre9.4 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.6 ast Score 32

F A. Gordon12.8 pts · 6 reb · 3 ast Score 74

Even

G A. Nesmith12.2 pts · 2.2 reb · 1.8 ast Score 65

F C. Johnson8.5 pts · 5.5 reb · 2 ast Score 98

DENSmall

F P. Siakam21.4 pts · 7.4 reb · 4 ast Score 74

C N. Jokic21.2 pts · 9.8 reb · 9.2 ast Score 86

DENBig

C J. Huff6 pts · 3.3 reb · 1 ast Score 10

NuggetsBetterPacers

DEN offense8th of 30 · +2.5

DENBig

IND defense25th of 30 · -3.8

DEN defense19th of 30 · -0.9

DENSmall

IND offense24th of 30 · -2.3

Backcourt+7.7 · 2 players

INDSmall

Backcourt+10.3 · 3 players

Frontcourt+35.7 · 3 players

DENBig

Frontcourt+4.0 · 2 players

Bench-4.0 · 5 players

DENBig

Bench-26.3 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestDEN betterIND betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Nuggets

Guards

J. Murray38 minC. Braun36 minD. DeRozan26 minR. Nembhard20 minT. Jones10 min

Forwards

A. Gordon30 minC. Johnson23 minT. Brazile23 minC. Whitmore17 minB. Hopkins17 minM. Bagley12 min

Centers

N. Jokic37 min

Out

A. DialloOut

Pacers

Guards

A. Nembhard33 minK. Oubre23 minA. Nesmith23 minQ. Jackson20 minK. Brown12 minB. Smith6 min

Forwards

P. Siakam32 minJ. Walker22 minL. Nance16 minJ. Slawson13 min

Centers

J. Huff17 min

Out

I. ZubacOutO. ToppinDay-To-DayT. HaliburtonOutB. SheppardOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

DEN114.0 #15

IND112.9 #18

Points per possession

DEN1.13 #9

IND1.10 #17

Pace (possessions)

DEN102.1 #21

IND103.1 #15

Shooting

Effective FG%

DEN54.7 #11

IND53.9 #14

3-point %

DEN37.4 #7

IND34.1 #18

3-point attempt rate

DEN40.9 #22

IND43.1 #15

Free throw rate

DEN31.3 #11

IND31.2 #12

Possessions

Turnover rate

DEN16.4 #21

IND14.8 #10

Offensive rebound rate

DEN27.5 #15

IND23.1 #27

Assists per game

DEN26.8 #14

IND28.0 #7

Defense

Points allowed

DEN115.2 #18

IND116.7 #23

Points allowed per possession

DEN1.12 #20

IND1.13 #23

Opponent effective FG%

DEN54.2 #20

IND53.9 #19

Opponent 3-point %

DEN35.0 #15

IND35.9 #20

Turnovers forced

DEN15.9 #11

IND14.9 #19

Defensive rebound rate

DEN70.5 #22

IND72.7 #16

Steals per game

DEN10.2 #5

IND6.9 #27

Blocks per game

DEN4.4 #18

IND4.0 #26

DEN		IND
Scoring
114.0 #15	Points per game	112.9 #18
1.13 #9	Points per possession	1.10 #17
102.1 #21	Pace (possessions)	103.1 #15
Shooting
54.7 #11	Effective FG%	53.9 #14
37.4 #7	3-point %	34.1 #18
40.9 #22	3-point attempt rate	43.1 #15
31.3 #11	Free throw rate	31.2 #12
Possessions
16.4 #21	Turnover rate	14.8 #10
27.5 #15	Offensive rebound rate	23.1 #27
26.8 #14	Assists per game	28.0 #7
Defense
115.2 #18	Points allowed	116.7 #23
1.12 #20	Points allowed per possession	1.13 #23
54.2 #20	Opponent effective FG%	53.9 #19
35.0 #15	Opponent 3-point %	35.9 #20
15.9 #11	Turnovers forced	14.9 #19
70.5 #22	Defensive rebound rate	72.7 #16
10.2 #5	Steals per game	6.9 #27
4.4 #18	Blocks per game	4.0 #26

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Nuggets

3-2 overall · 3-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Suns127–120
W@ Pelicans104–91
Lvs Warriors114–134
Wvs Pelicans141–135
L@ Thunder84–96

A week or more of rest.

Pacers

2-5 overall · 1-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Nets90–98
L@ Heat125–145
Lvs 76ers109–114
L@ Bucks102–110
W@ Nets136–109

6 days since their last game.

Nuggets @ Pacers

What could decide it: DEN has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Nuggets

Pacers

Nuggets has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Nuggets

Pacers