Denver Nuggets at Memphis Grizzlies: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Nov 11, 8:00 PM ETFedExForum · at Grizzlies · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Nuggets and Grizzlies
DEN	This season	MEM
3-2	Record	6-0
2-3	ATS	6-0
3-2	O/U	2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects DEN 118–117 · win probability DEN 53%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 234.5

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MEM has more of the edges

DEN 2, MEM 6 · 2026-27 so far

DENBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: DEN 31.3, MEM 25.3. Allowed: DEN 21.5, MEM 31.4

Context

Schedule so far

DEN has played the 18th-hardest schedule, MEM the 30th. A record against a soft schedule means less

MEMBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: DEN 27.5%, MEM 30.6%. Defensive: DEN 70.5%, MEM 75.0%

MEMBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: DEN 54.7 and allows 54.2; MEM 55.9 and allows 49.2

MEMBig

Three-pointers

DEN hits 37.4% and allows 35.0%; MEM hits 41.7% and allows 30.0%. Threes are 40.9% and 42.1% of their shots

MEMBig

Recent form

Last 5: DEN 2-3 ATS, margin -1.2; MEM 5-0 ATS, margin +14.2

MEMSmall

MEM offense vs DEN defense

Offense 11th of 30 against a defense 19th, on the model’s ratings

DENSmall

DEN offense vs MEM defense

Offense 8th of 30 against a defense 13th, on the model’s ratings

MEMSmall

Home court

MEM at home. This season: MEM 2-0 at home, DEN 2-1 away

Context

Tempo

About 103 possessions: DEN plays 102.1 a game (21st fastest), MEM 103.6 (13th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: DEN 16.4%, MEM 15.4%. Forced: DEN 15.9%, MEM 15.7%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: DEN 100%, MEM 100%. Transfers in: DEN 0, MEM 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DEN LLLWW	2-3	40%	2-1	—
MEM WWWWW	6-0	100%	2-0	—

Venue/role: DEN away; MEM home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
DEN UOOUO	3-2	60%	3-2
MEM UOUUO	2-4	33%	6-0

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DENlast 5	3-2 60%	2-3 40%	3-2 60%
MEMlast 6	6-0 100%	6-0 100%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Nuggets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 14	@ NO	W104–91WU
Nov 16	vs PHX	W127–120WO
Nov 18	vs BOS	W103–84WU

Grizzlies

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 13	@ NO	L106–114LU
Nov 14	vs BKN	L115–126LO
Nov 16	@ WSH	L112–116LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 18 since 2021-22

DEN 12–6 MEMDEN leads · 18 games since 2021-22 · DEN 9-9 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Apr 8, 2025-26	MEM 119 @ DEN 136	DEN -23.5	MEM W
Mar 18, 2025-26	DEN 118 @ MEM 125	MEM +12.5	MEM W
Feb 11, 2025-26	MEM 116 @ DEN 122	DEN -14.5	MEM W
Nov 24, 2025-26	DEN 125 @ MEM 115	MEM +8.5	DEN W
Apr 11, 2024-25	MEM 109 @ DEN 117	DEN -7.5	DEN W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Nuggets

5 games played

Straight up

3-2

60% wins

Against the spread

2-3

40% covers · avg −5.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-2

60% overs · avg −7.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-260%

L W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-340%

L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-260%

U O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 22	@OKC	L 84-96	+7.5	L −4.5	236.5	U 180
Oct 24	vsNO	W 141-135	-11.5	L −5.5	239.5	O 276
Oct 26	vsGS	L 114-134	-6.5	L −26.5	236.5	O 248
Oct 28	@NO	W 104-91	-4.5	W +8.5	241.5	U 195
Oct 30	@PHX	W 127-120	-4.5	W +2.5	231.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

OKC

L 84-96

−4.5

W 141-135

−5.5

L 114-134

−26.5

W 104-91

+8.5

PHX

W 127-120

+2.5

covered 2didn’t cover 3avg −5.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

OKC

L 84-96

−56.5

W 141-135

+36.5

L 114-134

+11.5

W 104-91

−46.5

PHX

W 127-120

+15.5

over 3under 2avg −7.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Grizzlies

6 games played

Straight up

6-0

100% wins

Against the spread

6-0

100% covers · avg +14.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −8.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-0100%

W W W W W W

6 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

6-0100%

W W W W W W

6 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

U U O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsUTAH	W 123-103	-1.5	W +18.5	240.5	U 226
Oct 23	@GS	W 111-108	+4.5	W +7.5	236.5	U 219
Oct 25	@SAC	W 123-112	-3.5	W +7.5	234.5	O 235
Oct 26	@UTAH	W 110-105	-1.5	W +3.5	237.5	U 215
Oct 29	@POR	W 124-103	+7.5	W +28.5	233.5	U 227
Oct 31	vsSAC	W 136-105	-7.5	W +23.5	229.5	O 241

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UTAH

W 123-103

+18.5

W 111-108

+7.5

SAC

W 123-112

+7.5

UTAH

W 110-105

+3.5

POR

W 124-103

+28.5

SAC

W 136-105

+23.5

covered 6didn’t cover 0avg +14.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UTAH

W 123-103

−14.5

W 111-108

−17.5

SAC

W 123-112

+0.5

UTAH

W 110-105

−22.5

POR

W 124-103

−6.5

SAC

W 136-105

+11.5

over 2under 4avg −8.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Grizzlies has the better starters

Position by position: Nuggets 1, Grizzlies 2, even 2

NuggetsBetterGrizzlies

G J. Murray25.8 pts · 5.6 reb · 5.6 ast Score 40

MEMBig

G T. Jerome25.8 pts · 3.2 reb · 5.6 ast Score 97

G C. Braun15.4 pts · 4.2 reb · 2 ast Score 66

MEMSmall

F C. Boozer17.7 pts · 10.5 reb · 5.7 ast Score 87

F A. Gordon12.8 pts · 6 reb · 3 ast Score 74

DENBig

F C. Coward13 pts · 8.6 reb · 2.6 ast Score 33

F C. Johnson8.5 pts · 5.5 reb · 2 ast Score 98

Even

F J. Wells12.2 pts · 3.3 reb · 1 ast Score 85

C N. Jokic21.2 pts · 9.8 reb · 9.2 ast Score 86

Even

C Z. Edey7 pts · 7 reb · 1 ast Score 92

NuggetsBetterGrizzlies

DEN offense8th of 30 · +2.5

DENSmall

MEM defense13th of 30 · +1.1

DEN defense19th of 30 · -0.9

MEMSmall

MEM offense11th of 30 · +1.3

Backcourt+7.7 · 2 players

MEMBig

Backcourt+16.5 · 1 player

Frontcourt+35.7 · 3 players

DENBig

Frontcourt+29.5 · 4 players

Bench-4.0 · 5 players

DENBig

Bench-18.8 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestDEN betterMEM betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Nuggets

Guards

J. Murray38 minC. Braun36 minD. DeRozan26 minR. Nembhard20 minT. Jones10 min

Forwards

A. Gordon30 minC. Johnson23 minT. Brazile23 minC. Whitmore17 minB. Hopkins17 minM. Bagley12 min

Centers

N. Jokic37 min

Out

A. DialloOut

Grizzlies

Guards

T. Jerome30 minJ. Mashack22 minJ. Small21 minC. Spencer19 minW. Clayton11 min

Forwards

C. Boozer31 minC. Coward28 minJ. Wells27 minJ. Grant24 minT. Hendricks19 minO. Prosper19 min

Centers

Z. Edey20 minI. Stewart18 minC. Cooper3 min

Out

S. PippenDay-To-DayQ. PostDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

DEN114.0 #15

MEM121.2 #1

Points per possession

DEN1.13 #9

MEM1.16 #4

Pace (possessions)

DEN102.1 #21

MEM103.6 #13

Shooting

Effective FG%

DEN54.7 #11

MEM55.9 #5

3-point %

DEN37.4 #7

MEM41.7 #1

3-point attempt rate

DEN40.9 #22

MEM42.1 #19

Free throw rate

DEN31.3 #11

MEM25.3 #22

Possessions

Turnover rate

DEN16.4 #21

MEM15.4 #16

Offensive rebound rate

DEN27.5 #15

MEM30.6 #5

Assists per game

DEN26.8 #14

MEM27.0 #13

Defense

Points allowed

DEN115.2 #18

MEM106.0 #3

Points allowed per possession

DEN1.12 #20

MEM1.03 #2

Opponent effective FG%

DEN54.2 #20

MEM49.2 #3

Opponent 3-point %

DEN35.0 #15

MEM30.0 #3

Turnovers forced

DEN15.9 #11

MEM15.7 #15

Defensive rebound rate

DEN70.5 #22

MEM75.0 #9

Steals per game

DEN10.2 #5

MEM6.3 #28

Blocks per game

DEN4.4 #18

MEM5.2 #11

DEN		MEM
Scoring
114.0 #15	Points per game	121.2 #1
1.13 #9	Points per possession	1.16 #4
102.1 #21	Pace (possessions)	103.6 #13
Shooting
54.7 #11	Effective FG%	55.9 #5
37.4 #7	3-point %	41.7 #1
40.9 #22	3-point attempt rate	42.1 #19
31.3 #11	Free throw rate	25.3 #22
Possessions
16.4 #21	Turnover rate	15.4 #16
27.5 #15	Offensive rebound rate	30.6 #5
26.8 #14	Assists per game	27.0 #13
Defense
115.2 #18	Points allowed	106.0 #3
1.12 #20	Points allowed per possession	1.03 #2
54.2 #20	Opponent effective FG%	49.2 #3
35.0 #15	Opponent 3-point %	30.0 #3
15.9 #11	Turnovers forced	15.7 #15
70.5 #22	Defensive rebound rate	75.0 #9
10.2 #5	Steals per game	6.3 #28
4.4 #18	Blocks per game	5.2 #11

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Nuggets

3-2 overall · 3-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Suns127–120
W@ Pelicans104–91
Lvs Warriors114–134
Wvs Pelicans141–135
L@ Thunder84–96

A week or more of rest.

Grizzlies

6-0 overall · 6-0 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Kings136–105
W@ Trail Blazers124–103
W@ Jazz110–105
W@ Kings123–112
W@ Warriors111–108

A week or more of rest.

Nuggets @ Grizzlies

What could decide it: MEM has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Nuggets

Grizzlies

Grizzlies has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Nuggets

Grizzlies