Boston Celtics at Denver Nuggets: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Nov 18, 9:00 PM ETBall Arena · at Nuggets

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Celtics and Nuggets
BOS	This season	DEN
5-1	Record	3-2
3-3	ATS	2-3
2-4	O/U	3-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects BOS 115–112 · win probability BOS 58%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 227.1

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: BOS has more of the edges

BOS 3, DEN 2 · 2026-27 so far

DENBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: BOS 32.3, DEN 31.3. Allowed: BOS 31.7, DEN 21.5

BOSBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: BOS 14.9%, DEN 16.4%. Forced: BOS 17.8%, DEN 15.9%

Context

Schedule so far

BOS has played the 25th-hardest schedule, DEN the 18th. A record against a soft schedule means less

BOSSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: BOS 55.0 and allows 51.3; DEN 54.7 and allows 54.2

DENSmall

Home court

DEN at home. This season: DEN 1-1 at home, BOS 1-1 away

BOSSmall

BOS offense vs DEN defense

Offense 15th of 30 against a defense 19th, on the model’s ratings

Even

DEN offense vs BOS defense

Offense 8th of 30 against a defense 5th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Recent form

Last 5: BOS 3-2 ATS, margin +13.0; DEN 2-3 ATS, margin -1.2

Context

Tempo

About 103 possessions: BOS plays 103.0 a game (16th fastest), DEN 102.1 (21st). Faster games mean more points

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: BOS 28.3%, DEN 27.5%. Defensive: BOS 68.4%, DEN 70.5%

Even

Three-pointers

BOS hits 35.5% and allows 33.8%; DEN hits 37.4% and allows 35.0%. Threes are 45.9% and 40.9% of their shots

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: BOS 100%, DEN 100%. Transfers in: BOS 0, DEN 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BOS WWLLW	3-3	50%	1-1	—
DEN LLLWW	2-3	40%	0-2	—

Venue/role: BOS away; DEN home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
BOS UUOUU	2-4	33%	5-1
DEN UOOUO	3-2	60%	3-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BOSlast 6	5-1 83%	3-3 50%	2-4 33%
DENlast 5	3-2 60%	2-3 40%	3-2 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Celtics

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 21	@ SAC	W112–93WU
Nov 22	@ GS	W120–99WO
Nov 24	@ WSH	W111–100LU

Nuggets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 20	vs HOU	W129–93WU
Nov 22	@ CHI	W136–120WO
Nov 24	vs DAL	W142–135LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

BOS 5–5 DENSeries tied · 10 games since 2021-22 · DEN has won the last 2 meetings · BOS 4-6 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 25, 2025-26	BOS 84 @ DEN 103	DEN -3.5	DEN W
Jan 7, 2025-26	DEN 114 @ BOS 110	BOS -10.5	DEN W
Mar 2, 2024-25	DEN 103 @ BOS 110	BOS -5.5	BOS W
Jan 7, 2024-25	BOS 118 @ DEN 106	DEN +10.5	BOS W
Mar 7, 2023-24	BOS 109 @ DEN 115	DEN +1.5	DEN W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Celtics

6 games played

Straight up

5-1

83% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +0.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg +1.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-183%

L W W W W W

5 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

L W W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-433%

O U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	@DET	L 113-121	-1.5	L −9.5	220.5	O 234
Oct 23	vsNY	W 107-103	-2.5	W +1.5	220.5	U 210
Oct 26	vsCHI	W 134-99	-14.5	W +20.5	233.5	U 233
Oct 27	vsBKN	W 125-124	-13.5	L −12.5	223.5	O 249
Oct 30	vsCHI	W 125-111	-14.5	L −0.5	236.5	U 236
Nov 1	@ORL	W 108-97	-6.5	W +4.5	221.5	U 205

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DET

L 113-121

−9.5

W 107-103

+1.5

CHI

W 134-99

+20.5

BKN

W 125-124

−12.5

CHI

W 125-111

−0.5

ORL

W 108-97

+4.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DET

L 113-121

+13.5

W 107-103

−10.5

CHI

W 134-99

−0.5

BKN

W 125-124

+25.5

CHI

W 125-111

−0.5

ORL

W 108-97

−16.5

over 2under 4avg +1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Nuggets

5 games played

Straight up

3-2

60% wins

Against the spread

2-3

40% covers · avg −5.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-2

60% overs · avg −7.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-260%

L W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-340%

L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-260%

U O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 22	@OKC	L 84-96	+7.5	L −4.5	236.5	U 180
Oct 24	vsNO	W 141-135	-11.5	L −5.5	239.5	O 276
Oct 26	vsGS	L 114-134	-6.5	L −26.5	236.5	O 248
Oct 28	@NO	W 104-91	-4.5	W +8.5	241.5	U 195
Oct 30	@PHX	W 127-120	-4.5	W +2.5	231.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

OKC

L 84-96

−4.5

W 141-135

−5.5

L 114-134

−26.5

W 104-91

+8.5

PHX

W 127-120

+2.5

covered 2didn’t cover 3avg −5.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

OKC

L 84-96

−56.5

W 141-135

+36.5

L 114-134

+11.5

W 104-91

−46.5

PHX

W 127-120

+15.5

over 3under 2avg −7.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Nuggets has the better starters

Position by position: Celtics 1, Nuggets 2, even 2

CelticsBetterNuggets

G D. White11.8 pts · 3.3 reb · 5.2 ast Score 87

BOSBig

G J. Murray25.8 pts · 5.6 reb · 5.6 ast Score 40

G J. Walsh4.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 1 ast Score 74

Even

G C. Braun15.4 pts · 4.2 reb · 2 ast Score 66

F J. Tatum28.3 pts · 6 reb · 7.7 ast Score 86

Even

F A. Gordon12.8 pts · 6 reb · 3 ast Score 74

F P. George20.7 pts · 6 reb · 5 ast Score 66

DENSmall

F C. Johnson8.5 pts · 5.5 reb · 2 ast Score 98

C N. Queta8.8 pts · 5.3 reb · 1.2 ast Score 62

DENSmall

C N. Jokic21.2 pts · 9.8 reb · 9.2 ast Score 86

CelticsBetterNuggets

BOS offense15th of 30 · +0.8

Even

DEN defense19th of 30 · -0.9

BOS defense5th of 30 · +4.6

Even

DEN offense8th of 30 · +2.5

Backcourt+15.6 · 2 players

BOSBig

Backcourt+7.7 · 2 players

Frontcourt+21.5 · 3 players

DENBig

Frontcourt+35.7 · 3 players

Bench+32.1 · 5 players

BOSBig

Bench-4.0 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestBOS betterDEN betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Celtics

Guards

D. White30 minJ. Walsh17 minP. Pritchard28 minB. Scheierman19 minM. Conley18 minH. Gonzalez12 min

Forwards

J. Tatum36 minP. George31 minS. Hauser20 minA. Williams7 minC. Cenac4 min

Centers

N. Queta21 minL. Garza11 min

Out

M. RobinsonDay-To-Day

Nuggets

Guards

J. Murray38 minC. Braun36 minD. DeRozan26 minR. Nembhard20 minT. Jones10 min

Forwards

A. Gordon30 minC. Johnson23 minT. Brazile23 minC. Whitmore17 minB. Hopkins17 minM. Bagley12 min

Centers

N. Jokic37 min

Out

A. DialloOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

BOS118.7 #8

DEN114.0 #15

Points per possession

BOS1.15 #6

DEN1.13 #9

Pace (possessions)

BOS103.0 #16

DEN102.1 #21

Shooting

Effective FG%

BOS55.0 #10

DEN54.7 #11

3-point %

BOS35.5 #10

DEN37.4 #7

3-point attempt rate

BOS45.9 #7

DEN40.9 #22

Free throw rate

BOS32.3 #7

DEN31.3 #11

Possessions

Turnover rate

BOS14.9 #11

DEN16.4 #21

Offensive rebound rate

BOS28.3 #12

DEN27.5 #15

Assists per game

BOS28.0 #6

DEN26.8 #14

Defense

Points allowed

BOS109.2 #9

DEN115.2 #18

Points allowed per possession

BOS1.06 #9

DEN1.12 #20

Opponent effective FG%

BOS51.3 #7

DEN54.2 #20

Opponent 3-point %

BOS33.8 #12

DEN35.0 #15

Turnovers forced

BOS17.8 #3

DEN15.9 #11

Defensive rebound rate

BOS68.4 #27

DEN70.5 #22

Steals per game

BOS9.2 #9

DEN10.2 #5

Blocks per game

BOS4.0 #25

DEN4.4 #18

BOS		DEN
Scoring
118.7 #8	Points per game	114.0 #15
1.15 #6	Points per possession	1.13 #9
103.0 #16	Pace (possessions)	102.1 #21
Shooting
55.0 #10	Effective FG%	54.7 #11
35.5 #10	3-point %	37.4 #7
45.9 #7	3-point attempt rate	40.9 #22
32.3 #7	Free throw rate	31.3 #11
Possessions
14.9 #11	Turnover rate	16.4 #21
28.3 #12	Offensive rebound rate	27.5 #15
28.0 #6	Assists per game	26.8 #14
Defense
109.2 #9	Points allowed	115.2 #18
1.06 #9	Points allowed per possession	1.12 #20
51.3 #7	Opponent effective FG%	54.2 #20
33.8 #12	Opponent 3-point %	35.0 #15
17.8 #3	Turnovers forced	15.9 #11
68.4 #27	Defensive rebound rate	70.5 #22
9.2 #9	Steals per game	10.2 #5
4.0 #25	Blocks per game	4.4 #18

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Celtics

5-1 overall · 5-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Magic108–97
Wvs Bulls125–111
Wvs Nets125–124
Wvs Bulls134–99
Wvs Knicks107–103

A week or more of rest.

Nuggets

3-2 overall · 3-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Suns127–120
W@ Pelicans104–91
Lvs Warriors114–134
Wvs Pelicans141–135
L@ Thunder84–96

A week or more of rest.

Celtics @ Nuggets

What could decide it: BOS has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Celtics

Nuggets

Nuggets has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Celtics

Nuggets