Denver Nuggets at Chicago Bulls: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Nov 22, 7:00 PM ETUnited Center · at Bulls

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Nuggets and Bulls
DEN	This season	CHI
3-2	Record	1-5
2-3	ATS	3-3
3-2	O/U	2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects DEN 125–116 · win probability DEN 74%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 241.6

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: DEN has more of the edges

DEN 5, CHI 2 · 2026-27 so far

DENBig

DEN offense vs CHI defense

Offense 8th of 30 against a defense 30th, on the model’s ratings

DENBig

Three-pointers

DEN hits 37.4% and allows 35.0%; CHI hits 28.1% and allows 39.3%. Threes are 40.9% and 47.9% of their shots

DENBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: DEN 54.7 and allows 54.2; CHI 48.2 and allows 56.0

Context

Tempo

About 106 possessions: DEN plays 102.1 a game (21st fastest), CHI 109.8 (1st). Faster games mean more points

DENSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: DEN 31.3, CHI 38.3. Allowed: DEN 21.5, CHI 33.5

CHISmall

CHI offense vs DEN defense

Offense 12th of 30 against a defense 19th, on the model’s ratings

DENSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: DEN 16.4%, CHI 16.2%. Forced: DEN 15.9%, CHI 14.7%

CHISmall

Home court

CHI at home. This season: CHI 0-2 at home, DEN 2-1 away

Context

Schedule so far

DEN has played the 18th-hardest schedule, CHI the 14th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Recent form

Last 5: DEN 2-3 ATS, margin -1.2; CHI 3-2 ATS, margin -10.4

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: DEN 27.5%, CHI 29.2%. Defensive: DEN 70.5%, CHI 69.8%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: DEN 100%, CHI 100%. Transfers in: DEN 0, CHI 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DEN LLLWW	2-3	40%	2-1	—
CHI WLLWW	3-3	50%	1-1	—

Venue/role: DEN away; CHI home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
DEN UOOUO	3-2	60%	3-2
CHI OUUOU	2-4	33%	1-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DENlast 5	3-2 60%	2-3 40%	3-2 60%
CHIlast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Nuggets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 24	vs DAL	W142–135LO
Nov 27	@ UTAH	W130–117LU
Nov 29	@ TOR	W121–115LU

Bulls

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 23	vs CLE	L110–115WU
Nov 25	@ CHA	L99–131LU
Nov 28	vs IND	L126–145LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

DEN 4–6 CHICHI leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · DEN 4-6 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 7, 2025-26	DEN 136 @ CHI 120	CHI +9.5	DEN W
Nov 17, 2025-26	CHI 130 @ DEN 127	DEN -12.5	CHI W
Mar 24, 2024-25	CHI 129 @ DEN 119	DEN -2.5	CHI W
Jan 27, 2024-25	DEN 121 @ CHI 129	CHI +9.5	CHI W
Dec 12, 2023-24	DEN 114 @ CHI 106	CHI +6.5	DEN W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Nuggets

5 games played

Straight up

3-2

60% wins

Against the spread

2-3

40% covers · avg −5.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-2

60% overs · avg −7.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-260%

L W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-340%

L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-260%

U O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 22	@OKC	L 84-96	+7.5	L −4.5	236.5	U 180
Oct 24	vsNO	W 141-135	-11.5	L −5.5	239.5	O 276
Oct 26	vsGS	L 114-134	-6.5	L −26.5	236.5	O 248
Oct 28	@NO	W 104-91	-4.5	W +8.5	241.5	U 195
Oct 30	@PHX	W 127-120	-4.5	W +2.5	231.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

OKC

L 84-96

−4.5

W 141-135

−5.5

L 114-134

−26.5

W 104-91

+8.5

PHX

W 127-120

+2.5

covered 2didn’t cover 3avg −5.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

OKC

L 84-96

−56.5

W 141-135

+36.5

L 114-134

+11.5

W 104-91

−46.5

PHX

W 127-120

+15.5

over 3under 2avg −7.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Bulls

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg +5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

L W L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

U O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@TOR	L 92-135	+10.5	L −32.5	237.5	U 227
Oct 23	@MIL	W 132-125	+1.5	W +8.5	241.5	O 257
Oct 24	vsWSH	L 120-124	-1.5	L −5.5	244.5	U 244
Oct 26	@BOS	L 99-134	+14.5	L −20.5	233.5	U 233
Oct 28	vsNY	L 127-133	+7.5	W +1.5	233.5	O 260
Oct 30	@BOS	L 111-125	+14.5	W +0.5	236.5	U 236

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TOR

L 92-135

−32.5

MIL

W 132-125

+8.5

WSH

L 120-124

−5.5

BOS

L 99-134

−20.5

L 127-133

+1.5

BOS

L 111-125

+0.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TOR

L 92-135

−10.5

MIL

W 132-125

+15.5

WSH

L 120-124

−0.5

BOS

L 99-134

−0.5

L 127-133

+26.5

BOS

L 111-125

−0.5

over 2under 4avg +5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Nuggets has the better starters

Position by position: Nuggets 4, Bulls 1, even 0

NuggetsBetterBulls

G J. Murray25.8 pts · 5.6 reb · 5.6 ast Score 40

CHISmall

G N. Powell20.7 pts · 2.7 reb · 2 ast Score 71

G C. Braun15.4 pts · 4.2 reb · 2 ast Score 66

DENBig

G J. Giddey8.5 pts · 5.3 reb · 7.5 ast Score 29

F A. Gordon12.8 pts · 6 reb · 3 ast Score 74

DENBig

F C. Wilson21.2 pts · 6.7 reb · 2.5 ast Score 6

F C. Johnson8.5 pts · 5.5 reb · 2 ast Score 98

DENBig

F M. Buzelis14.5 pts · 4.5 reb · 1.8 ast Score 4

C N. Jokic21.2 pts · 9.8 reb · 9.2 ast Score 86

DENBig

F P. Williams7 pts · 3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 19

NuggetsBetterBulls

DEN offense8th of 30 · +2.5

DENBig

CHI defense30th of 30 · -9.4

DEN defense19th of 30 · -0.9

CHISmall

CHI offense12th of 30 · +1.2

Backcourt+7.7 · 2 players

DENSmall

Backcourt+5.1 · 2 players

Frontcourt+35.7 · 3 players

DENBig

Frontcourt-24.0 · 3 players

Bench-4.0 · 5 players

DENSmall

Bench-6.9 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestDEN betterCHI betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Nuggets

Guards

J. Murray38 minC. Braun36 minD. DeRozan26 minR. Nembhard20 minT. Jones10 min

Forwards

A. Gordon30 minC. Johnson23 minT. Brazile23 minC. Whitmore17 minB. Hopkins17 minM. Bagley12 min

Centers

N. Jokic37 min

Out

A. DialloOut

Bulls

Guards

N. Powell30 minJ. Giddey27 minT. Jones18 minB. Hield14 minJ. Hawkins14 minD. Swain12 min

Forwards

C. Wilson34 minM. Buzelis25 minP. Williams21 minL. Miller19 minZ. Collins18 minI. Okoro18 min

Out

J. SmithDay-To-DayT. AwakaDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

DEN114.0 #15

CHI113.5 #16

Points per possession

DEN1.13 #9

CHI1.04 #26

Pace (possessions)

DEN102.1 #21

CHI109.8 #1

Shooting

Effective FG%

DEN54.7 #11

CHI48.2 #30

3-point %

DEN37.4 #7

CHI28.1 #30

3-point attempt rate

DEN40.9 #22

CHI47.9 #4

Free throw rate

DEN31.3 #11

CHI38.3 #1

Possessions

Turnover rate

DEN16.4 #21

CHI16.2 #20

Offensive rebound rate

DEN27.5 #15

CHI29.2 #9

Assists per game

DEN26.8 #14

CHI24.3 #25

Defense

Points allowed

DEN115.2 #18

CHI129.3 #30

Points allowed per possession

DEN1.12 #20

CHI1.17 #27

Opponent effective FG%

DEN54.2 #20

CHI56.0 #26

Opponent 3-point %

DEN35.0 #15

CHI39.3 #28

Turnovers forced

DEN15.9 #11

CHI14.7 #21

Defensive rebound rate

DEN70.5 #22

CHI69.8 #24

Steals per game

DEN10.2 #5

CHI8.7 #17

Blocks per game

DEN4.4 #18

CHI5.0 #12

DEN		CHI
Scoring
114.0 #15	Points per game	113.5 #16
1.13 #9	Points per possession	1.04 #26
102.1 #21	Pace (possessions)	109.8 #1
Shooting
54.7 #11	Effective FG%	48.2 #30
37.4 #7	3-point %	28.1 #30
40.9 #22	3-point attempt rate	47.9 #4
31.3 #11	Free throw rate	38.3 #1
Possessions
16.4 #21	Turnover rate	16.2 #20
27.5 #15	Offensive rebound rate	29.2 #9
26.8 #14	Assists per game	24.3 #25
Defense
115.2 #18	Points allowed	129.3 #30
1.12 #20	Points allowed per possession	1.17 #27
54.2 #20	Opponent effective FG%	56.0 #26
35.0 #15	Opponent 3-point %	39.3 #28
15.9 #11	Turnovers forced	14.7 #21
70.5 #22	Defensive rebound rate	69.8 #24
10.2 #5	Steals per game	8.7 #17
4.4 #18	Blocks per game	5.0 #12

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Nuggets

3-2 overall · 3-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Suns127–120
W@ Pelicans104–91
Lvs Warriors114–134
Wvs Pelicans141–135
L@ Thunder84–96

A week or more of rest.

Bulls

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Celtics111–125
Lvs Knicks127–133
L@ Celtics99–134
Lvs Wizards120–124
W@ Bucks132–125

A week or more of rest.

Nuggets @ Bulls

What could decide it: DEN has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Nuggets

Bulls

Nuggets has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Nuggets

Bulls